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Randomized clinical trials have been the mainstay of clinical research, but are prohibitively expensive and subject to increasingly difficult patient recruitment. Recently, there is a movement to use real-world data (RWD) from electronic health records, patient registries, claims data and other sources in lieu of or supplementing controlled clinical trials. This process of combining information from diverse sources calls for inference under a Bayesian paradigm. We review some of the currently used methods and a novel non-parametric Bayesian (BNP) method. Carrying out the desired adjustment for differences in patient populations is naturally done with BNP priors that facilitate understanding of and adjustment for population heterogeneities across different data sources. We discuss the particular problem of using RWD to create a synthetic control arm to supplement single-arm treatment only studies. At the core of the proposed approach is the model-based adjustment to achieve equivalent patient populations in the current study and the (adjusted) RWD. This is implemented using common atoms mixture models. The structure of such models greatly simplifies inference. The adjustment for differences in the populations can be reduced to ratios of weights in such mixtures. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Bayesian inference: challenges, perspectives, and prospects’.

Abstract The accurate simulation of additional interactions at the ATLAS experiment for the analysis of proton–proton collisions delivered by the Large Hadron Collider presents a significant challenge to the computing resources. During the LHC Run 2 (2015–2018), there were up to 70 inelastic interactions per bunch crossing, which need to be accounted for in Monte Carlo (MC) production. In this document, a new method to account for these additional interactions in the simulation chain is described. Instead of sampling the inelastic interactions and adding their energy deposits to a hard-scatter interaction one-by-one, the inelastic interactions are presampled, independent of the hard scatter, and stored as combined events. Consequently, for each hard-scatter interaction, only one such presampled event needs to be added as part of the simulation chain. For the Run 2 simulation chain, with an average of 35 interactions per bunch crossing, this new method provides a substantial reduction in MC production CPU needs of around 20%, while reproducing the properties of the reconstructed quantities relevant for physics analyses with good accuracy.

Abstract The ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider has a broad physics programme ranging from precision measurements to direct searches for new particles and new interactions, requiring ever larger and ever more accurate datasets of simulated Monte Carlo events. Detector simulation with Geant4 is accurate but requires significant CPU resources. Over the past decade, ATLAS has developed and utilized tools that replace the most CPU-intensive component of the simulation—the calorimeter shower simulation—with faster simulation methods. Here, AtlFast3, the next generation of high-accuracy fast simulation in ATLAS, is introduced. AtlFast3 combines parameterized approaches with machine-learning techniques and is deployed to meet current and future computing challenges, and simulation needs of the ATLAS experiment. With highly accurate performance and significantly improved modelling of substructure within jets, AtlFast3 can simulate large numbers of events for a wide range of physics processes.

Abstract A search for the Higgs boson decaying into a pair of charm quarks is presented. The analysis uses proton–proton collisions to target the production of a Higgs boson in association with a leptonically decaying W or Z boson. The dataset delivered by the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of "Equation missing" and recorded by the ATLAS detector corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 139  $$\text{ fb}^{-1}$$ fb - 1 . Flavour-tagging algorithms are used to identify jets originating from the hadronisation of charm quarks. The analysis method is validated with the simultaneous measurement of WW ,  WZ and ZZ production, with observed (expected) significances of 2.6 (2.2) standard deviations above the background-only prediction for the $$(W/Z)Z(\rightarrow c{\bar{c}})$$ ( W / Z ) Z ( → c c ¯ ) process and 3.8 (4.6) standard deviations for the $$(W/Z)W(\rightarrow cq)$$ ( W / Z ) W ( → c q ) process. The $$(W/Z)H(\rightarrow c {\bar{c}})$$ ( W / Z ) H ( → c c ¯ ) search yields an observed (expected) upper limit of 26 (31) times the predicted Standard Model cross-section times branching fraction for a Higgs boson with a mass of "Equation missing" , corresponding tomore »an observed (expected) constraint on the charm Yukawa coupling modifier $$|\kappa _c| < 8.5~(12.4)$$ | κ c | < 8.5 ( 12.4 ) , at the 95% confidence level. A combination with the ATLAS $$(W/Z)H, H\rightarrow b{\bar{b}}$$ ( W / Z ) H , H → b b ¯ analysis is performed, allowing the ratio $$\kappa _c / \kappa _b$$ κ c / κ b to be constrained to less than 4.5 at the 95% confidence level, smaller than the ratio of the b- and c-quark masses, and therefore determines the Higgs-charm coupling to be weaker than the Higgs-bottom coupling at the 95% confidence level.« less

A bstract Measurements of the production cross-sections of the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson ( H ) decaying into a pair of τ -leptons are presented. The measurements use data collected with the ATLAS detector from pp collisions produced at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of $$ \sqrt{s} $$ s = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb − 1 . Leptonic ( τ → ℓν ℓ ν τ ) and hadronic ( τ → hadrons ν τ ) decays of the τ -lepton are considered. All measurements account for the branching ratio of H → ττ and are performed with a requirement |y H | < 2 . 5, where y H is the true Higgs boson rapidity. The cross-section of the pp → H → ττ process is measured to be 2 . 94 ± $$ 0.21{\left(\mathrm{stat}\right)}_{-0.32}^{+0.37} $$ 0.21 stat − 0.32 + 0.37 (syst) pb, in agreement with the SM prediction of 3 . 17 ± 0 . 09 pb. Inclusive cross-sections are determined separately for the four dominant production modes: 2 . 65 ± $$ 0.41{\left(\mathrm{stat}\right)}_{-0.67}^{+0.91} $$ 0.41 stat − 0.67 + 0.91 (syst) pb for gluon-gluon fusion, 0 .more »197 ± $$ 0.028{\left(\mathrm{stat}\right)}_{-0.026}^{+0.032} $$ 0.028 stat − 0.026 + 0.032 (syst) pb for vector-boson fusion, 0 . 115 ± $$ 0.058{\left(\mathrm{stat}\right)}_{-0.040}^{+0.042} $$ 0.058 stat − 0.040 + 0.042 (syst) pb for vector-boson associated production, and 0 . 033 ± $$ 0.031{\left(\mathrm{stat}\right)}_{-0.017}^{+0.022} $$ 0.031 stat − 0.017 + 0.022 (syst) pb for top-quark pair associated production. Measurements in exclusive regions of the phase space, using the simplified template cross-section framework, are also performed. All results are in agreement with the SM predictions.« less

A bstract A direct search for Higgs bosons produced via vector-boson fusion and subsequently decaying into invisible particles is reported. The analysis uses 139 fb − 1 of pp collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of $$ \sqrt{s} $$ s = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The observed numbers of events are found to be in agreement with the background expectation from Standard Model processes. For a scalar Higgs boson with a mass of 125 GeV and a Standard Model production cross section, an observed upper limit of 0 . 145 is placed on the branching fraction of its decay into invisible particles at 95% confidence level, with an expected limit of 0 . 103. These results are interpreted in the context of models where the Higgs boson acts as a portal to dark matter, and limits are set on the scattering cross section of weakly interacting massive particles and nucleons. Invisible decays of additional scalar bosons with masses from 50 GeV to 2 TeV are also studied, and the derived upper limits on the cross section times branching fraction decrease with increasing mass from 1 . 0 pb for a scalar boson mass ofmore »50 GeV to 0 . 1 pb at a mass of 2 TeV.« less