Humans’ ability to adapt and learn relies on reflecting on past performance. These experiences form latent representations called internal states that induce movement variability that improves how we interact with our environment. Our study uncovered temporal dynamics and neural substrates of two states from ten subjects implanted with intracranial depth electrodes while they performed a goal-directed motor task with physical perturbations. We identified two internal states using state-space models: one tracking past errors and the other past perturbations. These states influenced reaction times and speed errors, revealing how subjects strategize from trial history. Using local field potentials from over 100 brain regions, we found large-scale brain networks such as the dorsal attention and default mode network modulate visuospatial attention based on recent performance and environmental feedback. Notably, these networks were more prominent in higher-performing subjects, emphasizing their role in improving motor performance by regulating movement variability through internal states.
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Executive function (EF) consists of higher level cognitive processes including working memory, cognitive flexibility, and inhibition which together enable goal-directed behaviors. Many neurological disorders are associated with EF dysfunctions which can lead to suboptimal behavior. To assess the roles of these processes, we introduce a novel behavioral task and modeling approach. The gamble-like task, with sub-tasks targeting different EF capabilities, allows for quantitative assessment of the main components of EF. We demonstrate that human participants exhibit dissociable variability in the component processes of EF. These results will allow us to map behavioral outcomes to EEG recordings in future work in order to map brain networks associated with EF deficitsmore » « less
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null (Ed.)Objective: The objective of the study is to build models for early prediction of risk for developing multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients. Design: The design of the study is a retrospective observational cohort study. Setting: The setting of the study is at a single academic PICU at the Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD. Patients: The patients included in the study were <18 years of age admitted to the PICU between July 2014 and October 2015. Measurements and main results: Organ dysfunction labels were generated every minute from preceding 24-h time windows using the International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) and Proulx et al. MOD criteria. Early MOD prediction models were built using four machine learning methods: random forest, XGBoost, GLMBoost, and Lasso-GLM. An optimal threshold learned from training data was used to detect high-risk alert events (HRAs). The early prediction models from all methods achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve ≥0.91 for both IPSCC and Proulx criteria. The best performance in terms of maximum F1-score was achieved with random forest (sensitivity: 0.72, positive predictive value: 0.70, F1-score: 0.71) and XGBoost (sensitivity: 0.8, positive predictive value: 0.81, F1-score: 0.81) for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. The median early warning time was 22.7 h for random forest and 37 h for XGBoost models for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. Applying spectral clustering on risk-score trajectories over 24 h following early warning provided a high-risk group with ≥0.93 positive predictive value. Conclusions: Early predictions from risk-based patient monitoring could provide more than 22 h of lead time for MOD onset, with ≥0.93 positive predictive value for a high-risk group identified pre-MOD.more » « less
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Abstract Septic shock is a life-threatening condition in which timely treatment substantially reduces mortality. Reliable identification of patients with sepsis who are at elevated risk of developing septic shock therefore has the potential to save lives by opening an early window of intervention. We hypothesize the existence of a novel clinical state of sepsis referred to as the “pre-shock” state, and that patients with sepsis who enter this state are highly likely to develop septic shock at some future time. We apply three different machine learning techniques to the electronic health record data of 15,930 patients in the MIMIC-III database to test this hypothesis. This novel paradigm yields improved performance in identifying patients with sepsis who will progress to septic shock, as defined by Sepsis- 3 criteria, with the best method achieving a 0.93 area under the receiver operating curve, 88% sensitivity, 84% specificity, and median early warning time of 7 hours. Additionally, we introduce the notion of patient-specific positive predictive value, assigning confidence to individual predictions, and achieving values as high as 91%. This study demonstrates that early prediction of impending septic shock, and thus early intervention, is possible many hours in advance.
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A person’s decisions vary even when options stay the same, like when a gambler changes bets despite constant odds of winning. Internal bias (e.g., emotion) contributes to this variability and is shaped by past outcomes, yet its neurobiology during decision-making is not well understood. To map neural circuits encoding bias, we administered a gambling task to 10 participants implanted with intracerebral depth electrodes in cortical and subcortical structures. We predicted the variability in betting behavior within and across patients by individual bias, which is estimated through a dynamical model of choice. Our analysis further revealed that high-frequency activity increased in the right hemisphere when participants were biased toward risky bets, while it increased in the left hemisphere when participants were biased away from risky bets. Our findings provide electrophysiological evidence that risk-taking bias is a lateralized push–pull neural system governing counterintuitive and highly variable decision-making in humans.