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Abstract South American dry forests have a complex and poorly understood biogeographic history. Based on the fragmented distribution of many Neotropical dry forest species, it has been suggested that this biome was more widely distributed and contiguous under drier climate conditions in the Pleistocene. To test this scenario, known as the Pleistocene Arc Hypothesis, we studied the phylogeography of the Rufous‐fronted Thornbird (Phacellodomus rufifrons), a widespread dry forest bird with a disjunct distribution closely matching that of the biome itself. We sequenced mtDNA and used ddRADseq to sample 7,167 genome‐wide single‐nucleotide polymorphisms from 74P. rufifronsindividuals across its range. We found low genetic differentiation over two prominent geographic breaks — particularly across a 1,000 km gap between populations in Bolivia and Northern Peru. Using demographic analyses of the joint site frequency spectrum, we found evidence of recent divergence without subsequent gene flow across those breaks. By contrast, parapatric morphologically distinct populations in northeastern Brazil show high genetic divergence with evidence of recent gene flow. These results, in combination with our paleoclimate species distribution modelling, support the idea that currently disjunct patches of dry forest were more connected in the recent past, probably during the Middle and Late Pleistocene. This notion fits the major predictions of the Pleistocene Arc Hypothesis and illustrates the importance of comprehensive genomic and geographic sampling for examining biogeographic and evolutionary questions in complex ecosystems like Neotropical dry forests. 

Abstract AimMacroecological analyses provide valuable insights into factors that influence how parasites are distributed across space and among hosts. Amid large uncertainties that arise when generalizing from local and regional findings, hierarchical approaches applied to global datasets are required to determine whether drivers of parasite infection patterns vary across scales. We assessed global patterns of haemosporidian infections across a broad diversity of avian host clades and zoogeographical realms to depict hotspots of prevalence and to identify possible underlying drivers. LocationGlobal. Time period1994–2019. Major taxa studiedAvian haemosporidian parasites (generaPlasmodium,Haemoproteus,LeucocytozoonandParahaemoproteus). MethodsWe amalgamated infection data from 53,669 individual birds representing 2,445 species world‐wide. Spatio‐phylogenetic hierarchical Bayesian models were built to disentangle potential landscape, climatic and biotic drivers of infection probability while accounting for spatial context and avian host phylogenetic relationships. ResultsIdiosyncratic responses of the three most common haemosporidian genera to climate, habitat, host relatedness and host ecological traits indicated marked variation in host infection rates from local to global scales. Notably, host ecological drivers, such as migration distance forPlasmodiumandParahaemoproteus, exhibited predominantly varying or even opposite effects on infection rates across regions, whereas climatic effects on infection rates were more consistent across realms. Moreover, infections in some low‐prevalence realms were disproportionately concentrated in a few local hotspots, suggesting that regional‐scale variation in habitat and microclimate might influence transmission, in addition to global drivers. Main conclusionsOur hierarchical global analysis supports regional‐scale findings showing the synergistic effects of landscape, climate and host ecological traits on parasite transmission for a cosmopolitan and diverse group of avian parasites. Our results underscore the need to account for such interactions, in addition to possible variation in drivers across regions, to produce the robust inference required to predict changes in infection risk under future scenarios.