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ABSTRACT Research in geocryology is currently principally concerned with the effects of climate change on permafrost terrain. The motivations for most of the research are (1) quantification of the anticipated net emissions of CO2and CH4from warming and thaw of near‐surface permafrost and (2) mitigation of effects on infrastructure of such warming and thaw. Some of the effects, such as increases in ground temperature or active‐layer thickness, have been observed for several decades. Landforms that are sensitive to creep deformation are moving more quickly as a result, andRock Glacier Velocityis now part of the Essential Climate VariablePermafrostof the Global Climate Observing System. Other effects, for example, the occurrence of physical disturbances associated with thawing permafrost, particularly the development of thaw slumps, have noticeably increased since 2010. Still, others, such as erosion of sedimentary permafrost coasts, have accelerated. Geochemical effects in groundwater from trace elements, including contaminants, and those that issue from the release of sediment particles during mass wasting have become evident since 2020. Net release of CO2and CH4from thawing permafrost is anticipated within two decades and, worldwide, may reach emissions that are equivalent to a large industrial economy. The most immediate local concerns are for waste disposal pits that were constructed on the premise that permafrost would be an effective and permanent containment medium. This assumption is no longer valid at many contaminated sites. The role of ground ice in conditioning responses to changes in the thermal or hydrological regimes of permafrost has re‐emphasized the importance of regional conditions, particularly landscape history, when applying research results to practical problems.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available December 10, 2025
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Abstract Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, recently installed a MIni CArbon DAting System (MICADAS) with a gas interface system (GIS) for determining the14C content of CO2gas released by the acid dissolution of biogenic carbonates. We compare 48 paired graphite, GIS, and direct carbonate14C determinations of individual mollusk shells and echinoid tests. GIS sample sizes ranged between 0.5 and 1.5 mg and span 0.1 to 45.1 ka BP (n = 42). A reduced major axis regression shows a strong relationship between GIS and graphite percent Modern Carbon (pMC) values (m = 1.011; 95% CI [0.997–1.023], R2= 0.999) that is superior to the relationship between the direct carbonate and graphite values (m = 0.978; 95% CI [0.959-0.999], R2= 0.997). Sixty percent of GIS pMC values are within ±0.5 pMC of their graphite counterparts, compared to 26% of direct carbonate pMC values. The precision of GIS analyses is approximately ±7014C yrs to 6.5 ka BP and decreases to approximately ±13014C yrs at 12.5 ka BP. This precision is on par with direct carbonate and is approximately five times larger than for graphite. Six Plio-Pleistocene mollusk and echinoid samples yield finite ages when analyzed as direct carbonate but yield non-finite ages when analyzed as graphite or as GIS. Our results show that GIS14C dating of biogenic carbonates is preferable to direct carbonate14C dating and is an efficient alternative to standard graphite14C dating when the precision of graphite14C dating is not required.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2025
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The permafrost region has accumulated organic carbon in cold and waterlogged soils over thousands of years and now contains three times as much carbon as the atmosphere. Global warming is degrading permafrost with the potential to accelerate climate change as increased microbial decomposition releases soil carbon as greenhouse gases. A 19-year time series of soil and ecosystem respiration radiocarbon from Alaska provides long-term insight into changing permafrost soil carbon dynamics in a warmer world. Nine per cent of ecosystem respiration and 23% of soil respiration observations had radiocarbon values more than 50‰ lower than the atmospheric value. Furthermore, the overall trend of ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon values through time decreased more than atmospheric radiocarbon values did, indicating that old carbon degradation was enhanced. Boosted regression tree analyses showed that temperature and moisture environmental variables had the largest relative influence on lower radiocarbon values. This suggested that old carbon degradation was controlled by warming/permafrost thaw and soil drying together, as waterlogged soil conditions could protect soil carbon from microbial decomposition even when thawed. Overall, changing conditions increasingly favoured the release of old carbon, which is a definitive fingerprint of an accelerating feedback to climate change as a consequence of warming and permafrost destabilization. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue ‘Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene’.more » « less
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Abstract Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS)—thermal erosion of soil and vegetation after ground ice thaw—are increasing. Recovery of plant biomass after RTS is important for maintaining Arctic carbon (C) stocks and is regulated by nutrient availability for new plant growth. Many RTS are characterized by verdant shrub growth mid-succession, atypical of the surrounding nutrient-limited tundra. Here, we investigated the potential for internal and external sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to support mid-successional shrub growth at three Alaskan RTS chronosequences. We assessed patterns of soil and microbial CNP, soil NP cycling rates and stocks, N inputs via biological N2-fixation, and thaw leachate over time after disturbance. We found a clear transfer of P stocks from mineral to organic soils with increasing site age, yet insufficient N from any one source to support observed shrub growth. Instead, multiple mechanisms may have contributed to mid-successional shrub growth, including sustained N-cycling with reduced plant biomass, N leaching from undisturbed tundra, uninvestigated sources of N2-fixation, and most promising given the large resource, deep mineral soil N stocks. These potential mechanisms of N supply are critical for the regulation of the Arctic C cycle in response to an increasingly common climate-driven disturbance.more » « less
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Radiocarbon (14C) is a critical tool for understanding the global carbon cycle. During the Anthropocene, two new processes influenced14C in atmospheric, land and ocean carbon reservoirs. First,14C-free carbon derived from fossil fuel burning has diluted14C, at rates that have accelerated with time. Second, ‘bomb’14C produced by atmospheric nuclear weapon tests in the mid-twentieth century provided a global isotope tracer that is used to constrain rates of air–sea gas exchange, carbon turnover, large-scale atmospheric and ocean transport, and other key C cycle processes. As we write, the14C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2is dropping below pre-industrial levels, and the rate of decline in the future will depend on global fossil fuel use and net exchange of bomb14C between the atmosphere, ocean and land. This milestone coincides with a rapid increase in14C measurement capacity worldwide. Leveraging future14C measurements to understand processes and test models requires coordinated international effort—a ‘decade of radiocarbon’ with multiple goals: (i) filling observational gaps using archives, (ii) building and sustaining observation networks to increase measurement density across carbon reservoirs, (iii) developing databases, synthesis and modelling tools and (iv) establishing metrics for identifying and verifying changes in carbon sources and sinks. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene'.more » « less
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ABSTRACT We present a timeseries of14CO2for the period 1910–2021 recorded by annual plants collected in the southwestern United States, centered near Flagstaff, Arizona. This timeseries is dominated by five commonly occurring annual plant species in the region, which is considered broadly representative of the southern Colorado Plateau. Most samples (1910–2015) were previously archived herbarium specimens, with additional samples harvested from field experiments in 2015–2021. We used this novel timeseries to develop a smoothed local record with uncertainties for “bomb spike”14C dating of recent terrestrial organic matter. Our results highlight the potential importance of local records, as we document a delayed arrival of the 1963–1964 bomb spike peak, lower values in the 1980s, and elevated values in the last decade in comparison to the most current Northern Hemisphere Zone 2 record. It is impossible to retroactively collect atmospheric samples, but archived annual plants serve as faithful scribes: samples from herbaria around the Earth may be an under-utilized resource to improve understanding of the modern carbon cycle.more » « less
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Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expectedas warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancientpermafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an establishedtechnique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphereand atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, agrowing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established acrossthe Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network'srepresentativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking.This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data acrosssites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbonbudgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N)EC sites, which has also been made available online(https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currentlycomprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 ofthese active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map therepresentativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity betweenenvironmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those withinthe larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphicvariables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity betweenecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflectingchanges in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics basedon this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location isrepresented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a secondfor which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statisticallyrigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domainis represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers insimilar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methanemeasurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the valuesdrop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With themajority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions wereassigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large partsof Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented.Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly representedby the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations orupgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness ofthe current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve therepresentativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as fewas 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active duringwintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearlysuperior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading tosubstantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively smallinvestments.more » « less