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Creators/Authors contains: "Seeteram, Nadia A."

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  1. Abstract

    Moving away from hazardous areas may be an important adaptive response under intensifying climate change, but to date such movement has been controversial and conducted with limited government or private-sector support. Research has emphasized resident perspectives on mobility, but understanding how professionals view it may open new avenues to shape future outcomes. Based on 76 interviews with professionals involved in climate responses in South Florida, we evaluate perceptions of adaptation goals, the potential role of climate mobilities in pathways supporting those goals, and associated constraints and enablers. The practitioners interviewed anticipate multiple types of climate mobilities will occur in the region, at increasing scales. Interviewees perceive climate mobilities at present, especially migration and gentrification where climate plays some role, as causing distributional inequities and financial and sociocultural disruptions, and they view existing adaptive strategies as best serving those who already have adequate resources, despite practitioners’ personal commitments to social justice goals. Although many practitioners feel prepared for their own, limited roles related to climate mobilities, they judge the region as a whole as being unprepared to support the retreat they see as inevitable, with a need for a more ambitious long-term transition plan. Achieving this need will be difficult, as practitioners indicate that climate mobilities remain hard to talk about politically. Nevertheless, interviewees believe some households are already considering moving in response to climate risks. Discussions of climate mobilities, through interviews and far beyond, may encourage more mindful choices about and engagement in climate-driven transformations.

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  2. Abstract

    Exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding will make some areas uninhabitable, and the increased demand for housing in safer areas may cause displacement through economic pressures. Anticipating such direct and indirect impacts of SLR is important for equitable adaptation policies. Here we build upon recent advances in flood exposure modeling and social vulnerability assessment to demonstrate a framework for estimating the direct and indirect impacts of SLR on mobility. Using two spatially distributed indicators of vulnerability and exposure, four specific modes of climate mobility are characterized: (1) minimally exposed to SLR (Stable), (2) directly exposed to SLR with capacity to relocate (Migrating), (3) indirectly exposed to SLR through economic pressures (Displaced), and (4) directly exposed to SLR without capacity to relocate (Trapped). We explore these dynamics within Miami-Dade County, USA, a metropolitan region with substantial social inequality and SLR exposure. Social vulnerability is estimated by cluster analysis using 13 social indicators at the census tract scale. Exposure is estimated under increasing SLR using a 1.5 m resolution compound flood hazard model accounting for inundation from high tides and rising groundwater and flooding from extreme precipitation and storm surge. Social vulnerability and exposure are intersected at the scale of residential buildings where exposed population is estimated by dasymetric methods. Under 1 m SLR, 56% of residents in areas of low flood hazard may experience displacement, whereas 26% of the population risks being trapped (19%) in or migrating (7%) from areas of high flood hazard, and concerns of depopulation and fiscal stress increase within at least 9 municipalities where 50% or more of their total population is exposed to flooding. As SLR increases from 1 to 2 m, the dominant flood driver shifts from precipitation to inundation, with population exposed to inundation rising from 2.8% to 54.7%. Understanding shifting geographies of flood risks and the potential for different modes of climate mobility can enable adaptation planning across household-to-regional scales.

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