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Abstract As economic activity in marine environments accelerates and expands, conflicts may increase following increased demand over marine resources, unequal distribution of benefits, as well as fluctuating resource availability and quality due to climate change. Anticipation and resolution of these conflicts require understanding of the causal mechanisms through which they originate and persist. Process tracing is a promising social science method that allows producing this knowledge by sequentially ordering events that produce conflict. The aim of this paper is to introduce process tracing as a method for the study of conflicts over marine environments and to assess how the method so far is used in previous studies of conflicts over marine environments. Our review of these studies reveals that scholars of conflicts over marine environments tend to apply process tracing using a deductive approach and a probabilistic understanding of causal mechanisms. The causal mechanisms that are identified to understand the dynamics that drive conflicts over marine environments often include power dynamics between states, institutions, movements or communities. Less articulated is how local social dynamics drives conflicts and how scholars select their cases to represent a wider population of conflicts. We conclude that applying a micro-sociological approach, more attention to case selection, and the interaction between contexts and mechanisms are promising ways forward for further use of process tracing in maritime studies. 

Abstract New marine industries that develop and grow in response to the changing demand for their products have the potential to exert pressure on fragile marine environments. These emerging industries can benefit local communities but equally can have negative environmental and socio-cultural impacts. The development of new and emerging industries, like deep seabed mining (DSM), requires the acceptance and involvement of local communities. Yet, the history of marine exploitation is imbued with conflicts between industries and local communities. This paper presents a DSM case study in Papua New Guinea (PNG) to stimulate debate around the potential for conflict in the pursuit of resource extraction from the deep sea and the social and environmental harm that these extractions can cause. We do so by first presenting a timeline of local and extra-local events and enabling conditions that form the development background for the DSM Solwara 1 project in PNG. We then undertake a media narrative analysis to consider the contribution of aspects of social acceptability to this highly complex and multi-scale conflict. We find that the lack of (or a decrease in) social acceptability contributed to the conflict situation and ultimately the demise of the Solwara 1 project. Extra-locally, the initial development was positively framed around solutions for decarbonisation using new technology. Over time, actions by international NGOs, financial issues related to foreign companies, and asymmetry in the power balance between the Pacific Island nation and global businesses played a role in growing negative perceptions of acceptability. Historical experiences with prior environmental mining disasters, together with sea tenure governance challenges, and a lack of community and stakeholder acceptance also contributed to the demise of the project. Untangling and debating these complex interactions provides context and reasons for the tension between the lack of societal acceptance at a local scale and the perceived need for DSM products in the global North for innovative technologies and decarbonising societies. Better understanding these interactions and tensions can help emerging industries navigate a future blue economy.