The Yucatán Peninsula (YP) has a complex hydroclimate with many proposed drivers of interannual and longer‐term variability, ranging from coupled ocean–atmosphere processes to frequency of tropical cyclones. The mid‐Holocene, a time of higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, provides an opportunity to test the relationship between YP precipitation and ocean temperature. Here, we present a new, ∼annually resolved speleothem record of stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) and trace element (Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca) ratios for a section of the mid‐Holocene (5.2–5.7 kyr BP), before extensive agriculture began in the region. A meter‐long stalagmite from Río Secreto, a cave system in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, was dated using U–Th geochronology and layer counting, yielding multidecadal age uncertainty (median 2SD of ±70 years). New proxy data were compared to an existing late Holocene stalagmite record from the same cave system, allowing us to examine changes in hydrology over time and to paleoclimate records from the southern YP. The δ18O, δ13C, and Mg/Ca data consistently indicate higher mean precipitation and lower precipitation variability during the mid‐Holocene compared to the late Holocene. Despite this reduced variability, multidecadal precipitation variations were persistent in regional hydroclimate during the mid‐Holocene. We therefore conclude that higher summer insolation led to increased mean precipitation and decreased precipitation variability in the northern YP but that the region is susceptible to dry periods across climate mean states. Given projected decreases in wet season precipitation in the YP’s near future, we suggest that climate mitigation strategies emphasize drought preparation.
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Abstract -
Rongstad, Brigitta L. ; Marchitto, Thomas M. ; Serrato Marks, Gabriela ; Koutavas, Athanasios ; Mekik, Figen ; Ravelo, Ana Christina ( , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)
Abstract El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest source of interannual climate variability on Earth today; however, future ENSO remains difficult to predict. Evaluation of paleo‐ENSO may help improve our basic understanding of the phenomenon and help resolve discrepancies among models tasked with simulating future climate. Individual foraminifera analysis allows continuous down‐core records of ENSO‐related temperature variability through the construction and comparison of paleotemperature distributions; however, there has been little focus on calibrating this technique to modern conditions. Here, we present data from individual measurements of Mg/Ca in two species of planktic foraminifera, surface dwelling
Globigerinoides ruber and thermocline dwellingNeogloboquadrina dutertrei , from nine core tops across the equatorial Pacific (n ≈ 70 per core for each species). Population variance, kernel probability density functions, and quantile‐quantile analyses are used to evaluate the shape of each Mg/Ca‐temperature distribution and to compare them to modern conditions using monthly temperatures from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. We show that populations of individual Mg/Ca measurements in bothG. ruber andN. dutertrei reflect site‐specific temperature distribution shapes and variances across the equatorial Pacific when accounting for regional differences in depth habitats. Individual measurements of both taxa capture zonal increases in population variance from the western equatorial Pacific to the central equatorial Pacific and a spatially heterogeneous eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with modern conditions. Lastly, we show that populations of individual Mg/Ca measurements are able to recover meaningful differences in temperature variability between sites within the eastern equatorial Pacific, lending support to this tool's application for paleo‐ENSO reconstructions.