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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single‐forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean‐state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available January 16, 2026
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Lora, J. M.; Skinner, C. B.; Rush, W. D.; Baek, S. H. (, Geophysical Research Letters)Abstract Proxy reconstructions and model simulations of precipitation during Earth's glacial periods suggest that the locations and mechanisms of atmospheric moisture transport have changed considerably during Earth's past. We investigate the hydroclimate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using simulations with the Community Earth System Model, with a focus on the extratropics and the influence of atmospheric rivers (ARs), a key driver of modern‐day moisture transport globally. Mean and extreme precipitation increase significantly over southwestern Patagonia, Iberia, and southwestern North America—mid‐latitude regions affected by ARs in the modern climate—despite overall decreases elsewhere. In each, the associated moisture transport changes are different, with increased transport and AR activity mainly occurring in the North Atlantic. The overall LGM response is dominated by the response to ice sheets, with other forcings causing additional cooling and drying over the extratropics and a strong decrease of moisture transport over the subpolar North Atlantic.more » « less
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