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Leopard seals have traditionally been considered Antarctic predators with a Southern Ocean distribution. Historically, sightings north of the Antarctic Polar Front were considered extralimital. However, recent studies suggest a significant presence of leopard seals in subantarctic regions. Here, we assess the spatial occurrence, residency status, and temporal trends of leopard seals in Chile using historical records, stranding reports, standardized monitoring data, photo-identification (photo ID) catalogs, and sightings from four research expeditions. We also characterize glaciers where sightings are concentrated, identifying glaciological and geomorphic attributes that prolong iceberg residency time, which is linked to high leopard seal concentrations. Based on these attributes, we evaluated other potential suitable glacial habitats in Patagonia. We obtained 438 sighting records of leopard seals from 1927 to 2023. Over the last 15 years, we documented a 4-18% annual increase in stranding events reported to national authorities. Most sightings (75%) were concentrated in two hotspots: National Park San Rafael Lagoon, located in Northern Patagonia, and Parry Fjord in Tierra del Fuego. Using photo ID catalogs, we identified 19 resident leopard seals, including 16 multi-year residents observed between 2010-2023 (10 in San Rafael, 6 in Tierra del Fuego) and 3 potential residents (observed multiple months in the same year in Tierra del Fuego). San Rafael monitoring data showed no inter-annual trend, but seasonal trends were observed. We also provide evidence of breeding in Chile, with records of at least 14 pups born and at least two females giving birth in multiple years. Our habitat characterization suggests that calving flux, fjord sinuosity, and fjord width variation are crucial for prolonging iceberg residency in hotspot areas. Based on these attributes, we identified 13 additional fjords in Patagonia as “very likely” suitable for leopard seals. Our study confirms that Patagonia is part of the species’ breeding distribution, shifting the paradigm that leopard seals are merely visitors north of the Antarctic Polar Front. Given the limited number of suitable glaciers in Chile and the potential impacts of climate change, our assessment highlights glacial retreat as a major threat for the ecosystem of this pagophilic marine apex predator in South America. 

Abstract In the Cordillera Darwin, southernmost South America, we used 10 Be and 14 C dating, dendrochronology, and historical observations to reconstruct the glacial history of the Dalla Vedova valley from deglacial time to the present. After deglacial recession into northeastern Darwin and Dalla Vedova, by ~16 ka, evidence indicates a glacial advance at ~13 ka coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The next robustly dated glacial expansion occurred at 870 ± 60 calendar yr ago (approximately AD 1150), followed by less-extensive dendrochronologically constrained advances from shortly before AD 1836 to the mid-twentieth century. Our record is consistent with most studies within the Cordillera Darwin that show that the Holocene glacial maximum occurred during the last millennium. This pattern contrasts with the extensive early- and mid-Holocene glacier expansions farther north in Patagonia; furthermore, an advance at 870 ± 60 yr ago may suggest out-of-phase glacial advances occurred within the Cordillera Darwin relative to Patagonia. We speculate that a southward shift of westerlies and associated climate regimes toward the southernmost tip of the continent, about 900–800 yr ago, provides a mechanism by which some glaciers advanced in the Cordillera Darwin during what is generally considered a warm and dry period to the north in Patagonia.