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Creators/Authors contains: "Springborn, Michael R"

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  1. Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) has emerged as a promising framework for understanding and managing the long-term interactions between fisheries and the larger marine ecosystems in which they are nested. However, successful implementation of EBFM has been elusive because we still lack a comprehensive understanding of the network of interacting species in marine ecosystems (the food web) and the dynamic relationship between the food web and the humans who harvest those ecosystems. Here, we advance such understanding by developing a network framework that integrates the complexity of food webs with the economic dynamics of different management policies. Specifically, we generate hundreds of different food web models with 20–30 species, each harvested by five different fishers extracting the biomass of a target and a bycatch species, subject to two different management scenarios and exhibiting different information in terms of avoiding bycatch when harvesting the target species. We assess the different ecological and economic consequences of these policy alternatives as species extinctions and profit from sustaining the fishery. We present the results of different policies relative to a benchmark open access scenario where there are no management policies in place. The framework of our network model would allow policymakers to evaluate different management approaches without compromising on the ecological complexities of a fishery. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions’. 
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  2. null (Ed.)
    COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized in multiple countries, and more are under rapid development. Careful design of a vaccine prioritization strategy across sociodemographic groups is a crucial public policy challenge given that 1) vaccine supply will be constrained for the first several months of the vaccination campaign, 2) there are stark differences in transmission and severity of impacts from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across groups, and 3) SARS-CoV-2 differs markedly from previous pandemic viruses. We assess the optimal allocation of a limited vaccine supply in the United States across groups differentiated by age and essential worker status, which constrains opportunities for social distancing. We model transmission dynamics using a compartmental model parameterized to capture current understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19, including key sources of group heterogeneity (susceptibility, severity, and contact rates). We investigate three alternative policy objectives (minimizing infections, years of life lost, or deaths) and model a dynamic strategy that evolves with the population epidemiological status. We find that this temporal flexibility contributes substantially to public health goals. Older essential workers are typically targeted first. However, depending on the objective, younger essential workers are prioritized to control spread or seniors to directly control mortality. When the objective is minimizing deaths, relative to an untargeted approach, prioritization averts deaths on a range between 20,000 (when nonpharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak). We illustrate how optimal prioritization is sensitive to several factors, most notably, vaccine effectiveness and supply, rate of transmission, and the magnitude of initial infections. 
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  3. null (Ed.)