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Abstract The solid‐state foaming process produces microcellular foams with an outer layer of solid skin that encapsulates the cellular core. In this article, we implement a 1D model to predict the thickness of the solid skin based on the effectiveT_gof the polymer‐gas system for a given foaming temperature. The model is based on the understanding that bubbles nucleate when the foaming temperature exceeds the effectiveT_gduring the foaming process. The model was validated with experimental results on the PC‐CO₂system, which showed that skin thickness decreases with increased foaming temperature. We also developed a linear correlation to accurately predict effectiveT_gat different CO₂concentrations. The article also explores the model sensitivity to the key input parameters related to gas diffusion. HighlightsLinear correlation to accurately predict effectiveT_gprofiles in PC‐CO₂system.Increasing foaming temperature decreases skin thickness.Model is sensitive to the input parameters related to gas diffusion.