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AGU Abstract #1983654 

AGU Abstract #1956788, 

AGU Abstract #1955948 

AGU Abstract #1983654 

AGU Abstract #1897659, 

Oral presentation, SCAR XI Open Science Conference (August 2024) 

Oral presentation, ITGC Annual Meeting (September 2024) 

Abstract The heat transfer between the warm oceanic water and the floating portion of the Antarctic ice sheet (the ice shelves) occurs in a dynamic environment with year‐to‐year changes in the distribution of icebergs and fast‐ice (the “icescape”). Dramatic events such as the collapse of glacier tongues are apparent in satellite images but oceanographic observations are insufficient to capture the synoptic impact of such events on the supply of oceanic heat to ice shelves. This study uses a 3D numerical model and semi‐idealized experiments to examine whether the current high melting rates of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea could be mitigated by certain icescape configurations. Specifically, the experiments quantify the impacts on oceanic heat supply of presence/absence of the Thwaites Glacier Tongue, Bear Ridge Iceberg Chain, tabular iceberg B22, and fast‐ice cover seaward of Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIS). The experiments reveal that future changes in the coastal icescape are unlikely to reverse the high ice shelf melting rates of the Amundsen Sea, and that icescape changes between 2011 and 2022 actually enhanced them slightly. Ice shelves such as Crosson and Thwaites are found to have multiple viable sources of oceanic heat whose relative importance may shift following icescape reconfigurations but the overall heat supply remains high. Similarly, the formation of a fast‐ice cover seaward of PIS slows down the cavity circulation (by 7%) but does not reduce its heat supply. 

Climate change is altering global ocean phenology, the timing of annually occurring biological events. We examined the changing phenology of the phytoplankton accumulation season west of the Antarctic Peninsula to show that blooms are shifting later in the season over time in ice-associated waters. The timing of the start date and peak date of the phytoplankton accumulation season occurred later over time from 1997 to 2022 in the marginal ice zone and over the continental shelf. A divergence was seen between offshore waters and ice-associated waters, with offshore bloom timing becoming earlier, yet marginal ice zone and continental shelf bloom timing shifting later. Higher chlorophylla(chla) concentration in the fall season was seen in recent years, especially over the northern continental shelf. Minimal long-term trends in annual chlaoccurred, likely due to the combination of later start dates in spring and higher chlain fall. Increasing spring wind speed is the most likely mechanism for later spring start dates, leading to deeper wind mixing in a region experiencing sea ice loss. Later phytoplankton bloom timing over the marginal ice zone and continental shelf will have consequences for surface ocean carbon uptake, food web dynamics, and trophic cascades.