skip to main content

Attention:

The NSF Public Access Repository (NSF-PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, May 23 until 2:00 AM ET on Friday, May 24 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Search for: All records

Creators/Authors contains: "Streletskiy, Dmitry A."

Note: When clicking on a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) number, you will be taken to an external site maintained by the publisher. Some full text articles may not yet be available without a charge during the embargo (administrative interval).
What is a DOI Number?

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.

  1. Rapid Arctic warming is expected to result in widespread permafrost degradation. However, observations show that site-specific conditions (vegetation and soils) may offset the reaction of permafrost to climate change. This paper summarizes 43 years of interannual seasonal thaw observations from tundra landscapes surrounding the Marre-Sale on the west coast of the Yamal Peninsula, northwest Siberia. This robust dataset includes landscape-specific climate, active layer thickness, soil moisture, and vegetation observations at multiple scales. Long-term trends from these hierarchically scaled observations indicate that drained landscapes exhibit the most pronounced responses to changing climatic conditions, while moist and wet tundra landscapes exhibit decreasing active layer thickness, and river floodplain landscapes do not show changes in the active layer. The slow increase in seasonal thaw depth despite significant warming observed over the last four decades on the Yamal Peninsula can be explained by thickening moss covers and ground surface subsidence as the transient layer (ice-rich upper permafrost soil horizon) thaws and compacts. The uneven proliferation of specific vegetation communities, primarily mosses, is significantly contributing to spatial variability observed in active layer dynamics. Based on these findings, we recommend that regional permafrost assessments employ a mean landscape-scale active layer thickness that weights the proportions of different landscape types. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, and putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation and associated risks to built infrastructure due to loss of bearing capacity and thaw subsidence in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Using a subset of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 and 585 scenarios we estimated changes in permafrost bearing capacity and ground subsidence between two reference decades: 2015–2024 and 2055–2064. Using publicly available infrastructure databases we identified roads, railways, airport runways, and buildings at risk of permafrost degradation and estimated country-specific costs associated with damage to infrastructure. The results show that under the SSP245 scenario 29% of roads, 23% of railroads, and 11% of buildings will be affected by permafrost degradation, costing $182 billion to the Arctic states by mid-century. Under the SSP585 scenario, 44% of roads, 34% of railroads, and 17% of buildings will be affected with estimated cost of $276 billion, with airport runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs, ranging from $115 to $169 billion depending on the scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions has the potential to significantly decrease the costs of projected damages in Arctic countries, especially in Russia. The approach presented in this study underscores the substantial impacts of climate change on infrastructure and can assist to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies in Arctic states. 
    more » « less
  3. This paper provides information on active layer thickness (ALT) dynamics, or seasonal thawing above permafrost, from a Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site near the city of Norilsk on the Taimyr Peninsula (north-central Siberia) and the influences of meteorological and landscape properties on these dynamics under a warming climate, from 2005 to 2020. The average ALT in loamy soils at this 1 ha CALM site over the past 16 years was 96 cm, higher than previous studies from 1980s conducted at the same location, which estimated ALT to be 80 cm. Increasing mean annual air temperatures in Norilsk correspond with the average ALT increasing trend of 1 cm/year for the observation period. Active layer development depends on summer thermal and precipitation regimes, time of snowmelt, micro-landscape conditions, the cryogenic structure (ice content) of soils, soil water content leading up to the freezing period, drainage, and other factors. Differences in ALT, within various micro landscape conditions can reach 200% in each of the observation periods. 
    more » « less
  4. Russian permafrost regions are unparalleled in extent, history of development, population presence, and the scale of economic activities. This special issue, «Permafrost Regions in Transition», provides a timely opportunity to (a) examine major issues associated with changing permafrost conditions in natural environments and areas of economic development; (b) present insights into new methods of permafrost investigations; and (c) describe new opportunities and risks threatening sustainable development of Arctic populations and industrial centers in Russia. The issue begins with papers focused on methods of permafrost research, followed by papers focused on examining changes in permafrost under natural conditions, and in Arctic settlements. The last two papers examine potential impacts of permafrost degradation on the Russian economy and potential health implications. 
    more » « less
  5. Climate change is destabilizing permafrost landscapes, affecting infrastructure, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. The rate of permafrost thaw is controlled by surface and subsurface properties and processes, all of which are potentially linked with each other. However, no standardized protocol exists for measuring permafrost thaw and related processes and properties in a linked manner. The permafrost thaw action group of the Terrestrial Multidisciplinary distributed Observatories for the Study of the Arctic Connections (T-MOSAiC) project has developed a protocol, for use by non-specialist scientists and technicians, citizen scientists, and indigenous groups, to collect standardized metadata and data on permafrost thaw. The protocol introduced here addresses the need to jointly measure permafrost thaw and the associated surface and subsurface environmental conditions. The parameters measured along transects include: snow depth, thaw depth, vegetation height, soil texture, and water level. The metadata collection includes data on timing of data collection, geographical coordinates, land surface characteristics (vegetation, ground surface, water conditions), as well as photographs. Our hope is that this openly available dataset will also be highly valuable for validation and parameterization of numerical and conceptual models, and thus to the broad community represented by the T-MOSAiC project. 
    more » « less
  6. Free, publicly-accessible full text available September 1, 2024