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The Greenland Ice Sheet has undergone rapid mass loss over the last four decades, primarily through solid and liquid discharge at marine‐terminating outlet glaciers. The acceleration of these glaciers is in part due to the increase in temperature of ocean water in contact with the glacier terminus. However, quantifying heat transport to the glacier through fjord circulation can be challenging due to iceberg abundance, which threatens instrument survival and fjord accessibility. Here we utilize iceberg movement to infer upper‐layer fjord circulation, as freely floating icebergs (i.e., outside the mélange region) behave as natural drifters. In the summers of 2014 and 2019, we deployed transmitting GPS units on a total of 13 icebergs in Ilulissat Icefjord, an iceberg‐rich and historically data‐poor fjord in west Greenland, to quantify circulation over the upper 0–250 m of the water column. We find that the direction of upper‐layer fjord circulation is strongly impacted by the timing of tributary meltwater runoff, while the speed of this circulation changes in concert with glacier behavior, which includes increases and decreases in glacier speed and meltwater runoff. During periods of increased meltwater runoff entering from tributary fjords, icebergs at these confluences deviated from their down‐fjord trajectory, even reversing up‐fjord, until the runoff pulse subsided days later. This study demonstrates the utility of iceberg monitoring to constrain upper‐layer fjord circulation, and highlights the importance of including tributary fjords in predictive models of heat transport and fjord circulation.

 

Abstract. Frontal ablation has caused 32 %–66 % of Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss since 1972, and despite its importance in driving terminus change, ocean thermal forcing remains crudely incorporated into large-scale ice sheet models. In Greenland, local fjord-scale processes modify the magnitude of thermal forcing at the ice–ocean boundary but are too small scale to be resolved in current global climate models. For example, simulations used in the Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) to predict future ice sheet change rely on the extrapolation of regional ocean water properties into fjords to drive terminus ablation. However, the accuracy of this approach has not previously been tested due to the scarcity of observations in Greenland fjords, as well as the inability of fjord-scale models to realistically incorporate icebergs. By employing the recently developed IceBerg package within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), we here evaluate the ability of ocean thermal forcing parameterizations to predict thermal forcing at tidewater glacier termini. This is accomplished through sensitivity experiments using a set of idealized Greenland fjords, each forced with equivalent ocean boundary conditions but with varying tidal amplitudes, subglacial discharge, iceberg coverage, and bathymetry. Our results indicate that the bathymetric obstruction of external water is the primary control on near-glacier thermal forcing, followed by iceberg submarine melting. Despite identical ocean boundary conditions, we find that the simulated fjord processes can modify grounding line thermal forcing by as much as 3 °C, the magnitude of which is largely controlled by the relative depth of bathymetric sills to the Polar Water–Atlantic Water thermocline. However, using a common adjustment for fjord bathymetry we can still predict grounding line thermal forcing within 0.2 °C in our simulations. Finally, we introduce new parameterizations that additionally account for iceberg-driven cooling that can accurately predict interior fjord thermal forcing profiles both in iceberg-laden simulations and in observations from Kangiata Sullua (Ilulissat Icefjord).

 

Abstract Frontal ablation, the combination of submarine melting and iceberg calving, changes the geometry of a glacier's terminus, influencing glacier dynamics, the fate of upwelling plumes and the distribution of submarine meltwater input into the ocean. Directly observing frontal ablation and terminus morphology below the waterline is difficult, however, limiting our understanding of these coupled ice–ocean processes. To investigate the evolution of a tidewater glacier's submarine terminus, we combine 3-D multibeam point clouds of the subsurface ice face at LeConte Glacier, Alaska, with concurrent observations of environmental conditions during three field campaigns between 2016 and 2018. We observe terminus morphology that was predominately overcut (52% in August 2016, 63% in May 2017 and 74% in September 2018), accompanied by high multibeam sonar-derived melt rates (4.84 m d −1 in 2016, 1.13 m d −1 in 2017 and 1.85 m d −1 in 2018). We find that periods of high subglacial discharge lead to localized undercut discharge outlets, but adjacent to these outlets the terminus maintains significantly overcut geometry, with an ice ramp that protrudes 75 m into the fjord in 2017 and 125 m in 2018. Our data challenge the assumption that tidewater glacier termini are largely undercut during periods of high submarine melting. 

Abstract Iceberg calving strongly controls glacier mass loss, but the fracture processes leading to iceberg formation are poorly understood due to the stochastic nature of calving. The size distributions of icebergs produced during the calving process can yield information on the processes driving calving and also affect the timing, magnitude, and spatial distribution of ocean fresh water fluxes near glaciers and ice sheets. In this study, we apply fragmentation theory to describe key calving behaviours, based on observational and modelling data from Greenland and Antarctica. In both regions, iceberg calving is dominated by elastic-brittle fracture processes, where distributions contain both exponential and power law components describing large-scale uncorrelated fracture and correlated branching fracture, respectively. Other size distributions can also be observed. For Antarctic icebergs, distributions change from elastic-brittle type during ‘stable’ calving to one dominated by grinding or crushing during ice shelf disintegration events. In Greenland, we find that iceberg fragment size distributions evolve from an initial elastic-brittle type distribution near the calving front, into a steeper grinding/crushing-type power law along-fjord. These results provide an entirely new framework for understanding controls on iceberg calving and how calving may react to climate forcing. 

At tidewater glacier termini, ocean‐glacier interactions hinge on two sources of freshwater—submarine melt and subglacial discharge—yet these freshwater fluxes are often unconstrained in their magnitude, seasonality, and relationship. With measurements of ocean velocity, temperature and salinity, fjord budgets can be evaluated to partition the freshwater flux into submarine melt and subglacial discharge. We apply these methods to calculate the freshwater fluxes at LeConte Glacier, Alaska, across a wide range of oceanic and atmospheric conditions during six surveys in 2016–2018. We compare these ocean‐derived fluxes with an estimate of subglacial discharge from a surface mass balance model and with estimates of submarine melt from multibeam sonar and autonomous kayaks, finding relatively good agreement between these independent estimates. Across spring, summer, and fall, the relationship between subglacial discharge and submarine melt follows a scaling law predicted by standard theory (melt ∼ discharge^1/3), although the total magnitude of melt is an order of magnitude larger than theoretical estimates. Subglacial discharge is the dominant driver of variability in melt, while the dependence of melt on fjord properties is not discernible. A comparison of oceanic budgets with glacier records indicates that submarine melt removes 33%–49% of the ice flux into the terminus across spring, summer, and fall periods. Thus, melt is a significant component of the glacier's mass balance, and we find that melt correlates with seasonal retreat; however, melt does not appear to directly amplify calving.

 

Fjords are conduits for heat and mass exchange between tidewater glaciers and the coastal ocean, and thus regulate near‐glacier water properties and submarine melting of glaciers. Entrainment into subglacial discharge plumes is a primary driver of seasonal glacial fjord circulation; however, outflowing plumes may continue to influence circulation after reaching neutral buoyancy through the sill‐driven mixing and recycling, or reflux, of glacial freshwater. Despite its importance in non‐glacial fjords, no framework exists for how freshwater reflux may affect circulation in glacial fjords, where strong buoyancy forcing is also present. Here, we pair a suite of hydrographic observations measured throughout 2016–2017 in LeConte Bay, Alaska, with a three‐dimensional numerical model of the fjord to quantify sill‐driven reflux of glacial freshwater, and determine its influence on glacial fjord circulation. When paired with subglacial discharge plume‐driven buoyancy forcing, sill‐generated mixing drives distinct seasonal circulation regimes that differ greatly in their ability to transport heat to the glacier terminus. During the summer, 53%–72% of the surface outflow is refluxed at the fjord's shallow entrance sill and is subsequently re‐entrained into the subglacial discharge plume at the fjord head. As a result, near‐terminus water properties are heavily influenced by mixing at the entrance sill, and circulation is altered to draw warm, modified external surface water to the glacier grounding line at 200 m depth. This circulatory cell does not exist in the winter when freshwater reflux is minimal. Similar seasonal behavior may exist at other glacial fjords throughout Southeast Alaska, Patagonia, Greenland, and elsewhere.

 

The continental shelf of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is characterized by strong along‐shore hydrographic gradients resulting from the distinct influences of the warm Bellingshausen Sea to the south and the cold Weddell Sea water flooding Bransfield Strait to the north. These gradients modulate the spatial structure of glacier retreat and are correlated with other physical and biochemical variability along the shelf, but their structure and dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, the magnitude, spatial structure, seasonal‐to‐interannual variability, and driving mechanisms of along‐shore exchange are investigated using the output of a high‐resolution numerical model and with hydrographic data collected in Palmer Deep. The analyses reveal a pronounced seasonal cycle of along‐shore transport, with a net flux (7.0 × 10⁵ m³/s) of cold water toward the central WAP (cWAP) in winter, which reverses in summer with a net flow (5.2 × 10⁵ m³/s) of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and modified CDW (mCDW) toward Bransfield Strait. Significant interannual variability is found as the pathway of a coastal current transporting Weddell‐sourced water along the WAP shelf is modulated by wind forcing. When the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) is positive during winter, stronger upwelling‐favorable winds dominate in Bransfield Strait, leading to offshore advection of the Weddell‐sourced water. Negative SAM leads to weaker upwelling‐ or downwelling‐favorable winds and enhanced flooding of the cWAP with cold water from Bransfield Strait. This process can result in significant (0.5°C below 200 m) cooling of the continental shelf around Palmer Station, highlighting that along‐shore exchange is critical in modulating the hydrographic properties along the WAP.

 

Increasing freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic through iceberg melting can influence fjord‐scale to basin‐scale ocean circulation. However, the magnitude, timing, and distribution of this freshwater have been challenging to quantify due to minimal direct observations of subsurface iceberg geometry and melt rates. Here we present novel in situ methods capturing iceberg change at high‐temporal and ‐spatial resolution using four high‐precision GPS units deployed on two large icebergs (>500 m length). In combination with measurements of surface and subsurface geometry, we calculate iceberg melt rates between 0.10 and 0.27 m/d over the 9‐day survey. These melt rates are lower than those proposed in previous studies, likely due to using individual subsurface iceberg geometries in calculations. In combining these new measurements of iceberg geometry and melt rate with the broad spatial coverage of remote sensing, we can better predict the impact of increasing freshwater injection from the Greenland Ice Sheet.

 

To investigate the timing and intensity of winter spawning by coastal invertebrates, we enumerated embryos in plankton samples collected in daily time series from January to March of 2014 (79 d), 2015 (73 d), and 2016 (74 d). Samples were collected near the mouth of the Coos Bay estuary in Oregon. We enumerated several hundred different morphologically distinct types of embryos and larvae representing at least five phyla. Forty‐three embryo types were abundant enough (abundance > 500 over the time series) to enable statistical analysis. Twenty of these types were identified using genetic barcoding of which there were four nemerteans, four gastropods, four chitons, five polychaetes, and two echinoderms. In winter 2014, hydrographic conditions were similar to average historical values. Conditions in 2015 and 2016 were characterized by marine heat waves (MHWs). In 2015, the “warm blob”—anomalously warm water in the Northeastern Pacific—affected conditions and in 2016, there was a strong El Niño. In 2015 and 2016, winter spawning intensity was orders of magnitude lower than in 2014 and many taxa failed to spawn (11 and 24 in 2015 and 2016, respectively); spawning appears to have been adversely impacted by the MHWs. The MHW of 2015 has been attributed to anthropogenic global climate change while the 2016 El Niño may have been strengthened by climate change. The frequency, intensity, and duration of MHW are projected to increase dramatically with global warming, which may adversely affect reproduction and recruitment by numerous marine taxa.