Search for: All records

Abstract Convergent estuaries have been shortened by dam‐like structures worldwide. Here, we evaluate 31 long‐term water level stations and use a semi‐analytical tide model to investigate how landward‐funneling and a dam influence tidal and storm surge propagation in the greater Charleston Harbor region, South Carolina, where three rivers meet: the Ashley, Cooper, and Wando. Results show that the phase speed and amplification of the principal tidal harmonic (M2) is larger than other long waves such as storm surge (∼1–4 days) and setup‐setdown (∼4–10 days). Further landward, all waves attenuate, but, as they approach the dam on the Cooper River, a frequency dependent response in amplitude and phase progression occurs. A semi‐analytical tidal model shows that funneling and the presence of a dam amplify tidal waves through wave interference from partial and full reflection, respectively. The different phase progressions of the reflected waves interact with the incident wave to increase or decrease the summed overall wave amplitude. Using a friction‐convergence parameter space, we demonstrate that dominant tides in 23 estuaries and the tidal, storm surge, and setup‐setdown waves in the Cooper River can be delineated into three regimes that describe landward amplification or attenuation associated with funneling, a dam, or both. The regime of each tidal constituent is consistent but can change with the duration and height of each storm surge event; dam associated wave interference can attenuate long‐duration events, while the most intense events (short duration, high water) are amplified by dams more than funneling and greatly increase flood exposure. 

Abstract Sea‐level rise is leading to increasingly frequent coastal floods globally. Recent research shows that changes in tidal properties and storm surge magnitudes can further exacerbate sea‐level rise‐related increases in flood frequencies. However, such non‐stationarity in tide and storm surge statistics are largely neglected in existing coastal flood projection methodologies. Here we develop a framework to explore the effect that different realizations of various sources of uncertainty have on projections of coastal flood frequencies, including changes in tidal range and storminess. Our projection methodology captures how observed flood rates depend on how storm surges coincide with tidal extremes. We show that higher flood rates and earlier emergence of chronic flooding are associated with larger sea‐level rise rates, lower flood thresholds, and increases in tidal range and skew surge magnitudes. Smaller sea‐level rise rates, higher flood thresholds and decreases in sea level variability lead to commensurately lower flood rates. Percentagewise, changes in tidal amplitudes generally have a much larger impact on flood frequencies than equivalent percentagewise changes in storm surge magnitudes. We explore several implications of these findings. Firstly, understanding future local changes in storm surges and tides is required to fully quantify future flood hazards. Secondly, existing hazard assessments may underestimate future flood rates as changes in tides are not considered. Finally, identifying the flood frequencies and severities relevant to local coastal managers is imperative to develop useable and policy‐relevant projections for decisionmakers. 

Abstract Decreases in shallow-water habitat area (SWHA) in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary (LCRE) have adversely affected salmonid populations. We investigate the causes by hindcasting SWHA from 1928 to 2004, system-wide, based on daily higher high water (HHW) and system hypsometry. Physics-based regression models are used to represent HHW along the system as a function of river inflow, tides, and coastal processes, and hypsometry is used to estimate the associated SWHA. Scenario modeling is employed to attribute SWHA losses to levees, flow regulation, diversion, navigational development, and climate-induced hydrologic change, for subsidence scenarios of up to 2 m, and for 0.5 m fill. For zero subsidence, the system-wide annual-average loss of SWHA is 55 ± 5%, or 51 × 10⁵ ha/year; levees have caused the largest decrease ($${54}_{-14}^{+5}$$ ${54}_{-14}^{+5}$ %, or ~ 50 × 10⁵ ha/year). The loss in SWHA due to operation of the hydropower system is small, but spatially and seasonally variable. During the spring freshet critical to juvenile salmonids, the total SWHA loss was$${63}_{-3}^{+2}$$ ${63}_{-3}^{+2}$ %, with the hydropower system causing losses of 5–16% (depending on subsidence). Climate change and navigation have caused SWHA losses of$${5}_{-5}^{+16}$$ $5_{-5}^{+16}$ % and$${4}_{-6}^{+14}$$ $4_{-6}^{+14}$ %, respectively, but with high spatial variability; irrigation impacts have been small. Uncertain subsidence causes most of the uncertainty in estimates; the sum of the individual factors exceeds the total loss, because factors interact. Any factor that reduces mean or peak flows (reservoirs, diversion, and climate change) or alters tides and along-channel slope (navigation) becomes more impactful as assumed historical elevations are increased to account for subsidence, while levees matter less. 

Abstract. Using archival research methods, we recovered and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140-year record of daily watertemperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid-20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at 1.1 ∘C per century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January and February (1.3 ∘C per century) and the smallest in May and June (∼ 0.8 ∘C per century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 ∘C has increased by about 20 d since the 1800s, to about 60 d yr−1. Moreover, cold-water days below 2 ∘C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since 1900, changes are primarily correlated with increasesin air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ± 0.25 ∘C) but also occur due to alterations in the river system such as depth increases from reservoirs (0.34 ± 0.12 ∘C). Managed release of water affects Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of up to 0.56 ∘C estimated for September. River system changes have decreased variability (σ) in daily minimum Tw by 0.44 ∘C, increased thermal memory, reduced interannual variability, and reduced the response to short-term meteorological forcing (e.g., heat waves). These changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna. 

Abstract. The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 provided a rare opportunity to understand global tsunamiimpacts of explosive volcanism and to evaluate future hazards, includingdangers from “volcanic meteotsunamis” (VMTs) induced by the atmosphericshock waves that followed the eruption. The propagation of the volcanic andmarine tsunamis was analyzed using globally distributed 1 min measurementsof air pressure and water level (WL) (from both tide gauges and deep-waterbuoys). The marine tsunami propagated primarily throughout the Pacific,reaching nearly 2 m at some locations, though most Pacific locationsrecorded maximums lower than 1 m. However, the VMT resulting from theatmospheric shock wave arrived before the marine tsunami and propagatedglobally, producing water level perturbations in the Indian Ocean, theMediterranean, and the Caribbean. The resulting water level response of manyPacific Rim gauges was amplified, likely related to wave interaction withbathymetry. The meteotsunami repeatedly boosted tsunami wave energy as itcircled the planet several times. In some locations, the VMT was amplifiedby as much as 35-fold relative to the inverse barometer due to near-Proudmanresonance and topographic effects. Thus, a meteotsunami from a largereruption (such as the Krakatoa eruption of 1883) could yield atmosphericpressure changes of 10 to 30 mb, yielding a 3–10 m near-field tsunami thatwould occur in advance of (usually) larger marine tsunami waves, posingadditional hazards to local populations. Present tsunami warning systems donot consider this threat. 

Abstract. We investigate here the effects of geometric properties (channel depth andcross-sectional convergence length), storm surge characteristics, friction,and river flow on the spatial and temporal variability of compound floodingalong an idealized, meso-tidal coastal-plain estuary. An analytical model isdeveloped that includes exponentially convergent geometry, tidal forcing,constant river flow, and a representation of storm surge as a combination oftwo sinusoidal waves. Nonlinear bed friction is treated using Chebyshevpolynomials and trigonometric functions, and a multi-segment approach isused to increase accuracy. Model results show that river discharge increasesthe damping of surge amplitudes in an estuary, while increasing channeldepth has the opposite effect. Sensitivity studies indicate that the impactof river flow on peak water level decreases as channel depth increases,while the influence of tide and surge increases in the landward portion ofan estuary. Moreover, model results show less surge damping in deeperconfigurations and even amplification in some cases, while increasedconvergence length scale increases damping of surge waves with periods of 12–72 h. For every modeled scenario, there is a point where river dischargeeffects on water level outweigh tide/surge effects. As a channel isdeepened, this cross-over point moves progressively upstream. Thus, channeldeepening may alter flood risk spatially along an estuary and reduce thelength of a river estuary, within which fluvial flooding is dominant. 

This paper describes a major update to the quasi-global, higher-frequency sea-level dataset known as GESLA (Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis). Versions 1 (released 2009) and 2 (released 2016) of the dataset have been used in many published studies, across a wide range of oceanographic and coastal engineering-related investigations concerned with evaluating tides, storm surges, extreme sea levels, and other related processes. The third version of the dataset (released 2021), presented here, contains double the number of years of data, and nearly four times the number of records, compared to Version 2. The dataset consists of records obtained from multiple sources around the world. This paper describes the assembly of the dataset, its processing, and its format, and outlines potential future improvements