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The distribution of fitness effects of new mutations shapes evolution, but it is challenging to observe how it changes as organisms adapt. UsingEscherichia colilineages spanning 50,000 generations of evolution, we quantify the fitness effects of insertion mutations in every gene. Macroscopically, the fraction of deleterious mutations changed little over time whereas the beneficial tail declined sharply, approaching an exponential distribution. Microscopically, changes in individual gene essentiality and deleterious effects often occurred in parallel; altered essentiality is only partly explained by structural variation. The identity and effect sizes of beneficial mutations changed rapidly over time, but many targets of selection remained predictable because of the importance of loss-of-function mutations. Taken together, these results reveal the dynamic—but statistically predictable—nature of mutational fitness effects.

 

Abstract Insertion sequences (IS) are ubiquitous bacterial mobile genetic elements, and the mutations they cause can be deleterious, neutral, or beneficial. The long-term dynamics of IS elements and their effects on bacteria are poorly understood, including whether they are primarily genomic parasites or important drivers of adaptation by natural selection. Here, we investigate the dynamics of IS elements and their contribution to genomic evolution and fitness during a long-term experiment with Escherichia coli . IS elements account for ~35% of the mutations that reached high frequency through 50,000 generations in those populations that retained the ancestral point-mutation rate. In mutator populations, IS-mediated mutations are only half as frequent in absolute numbers. In one population, an exceptionally high ~8-fold increase in IS 150 copy number is associated with the beneficial effects of early insertion mutations; however, this expansion later slowed down owing to reduced IS 150 activity. This population also achieves the lowest fitness, suggesting that some avenues for further adaptation are precluded by the IS 150 -mediated mutations. More generally, across all populations, we find that higher IS activity becomes detrimental to adaptation over evolutionary time. Therefore, IS-mediated mutations can both promote and constrain evolvability. 

Repurposed drugs that are safe and immediately available constitute a first line of defense against new viral infections. Despite limited antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, several drugs are being tested as medication or as prophylaxis to prevent infection. Using a stochastic model of early phase infection, we evaluate the success of prophylactic treatment with different drug types to prevent viral infection. We find that there exists a critical efficacy that a treatment must reach in order to block viral establishment. Treatment by a combination of drugs reduces the critical efficacy, most effectively by the combination of a drug blocking viral entry into cells and a drug increasing viral clearance. Below the critical efficacy, the risk of infection can nonetheless be reduced. Drugs blocking viral entry into cells or enhancing viral clearance reduce the risk of infection more than drugs that reduce viral production in infected cells. The larger the initial inoculum of infectious virus, the less likely is prevention of an infection. In our model, we find that as long as the viral inoculum is smaller than 10 infectious virus particles, viral infection can be prevented almost certainly with drugs of 90% efficacy (or more). Even when a viral infection cannot be prevented, antivirals delay the time to detectable viral loads. The largest delay of viral infection is achieved by drugs reducing viral production in infected cells. A delay of virus infection flattens the within-host viral dynamic curve, possibly reducing transmission and symptom severity. Thus, antiviral prophylaxis, even with reduced efficacy, could be efficiently used to prevent or alleviate infection in people at high risk.