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Abstract West Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss is a major source of uncertainty in sea level projections. The primary driver of this melting is oceanic heat from Circumpolar Deep Water originating offshore in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Yet, in assessing melt variability, open ocean processes have received considerably less attention than those governing cross-shelf exchange. Here, we use Lagrangian particle release experiments in an ocean model to investigate the pathways by which Circumpolar Deep Water moves toward the continental shelf across the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. We show that Ross Gyre expansion, linked to wind and sea ice variability, increases poleward heat transport along the gyre’s eastern limb and the relative fraction of transport toward the Amundsen Sea. Ross Gyre variability, therefore, influences oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental slope. Understanding remote controls on basal melt is necessary to predict the ice sheet response to anthropogenic forcing. 

Abstract Oceanic macroturbulence is efficient at stirring and transporting tracers. The dynamical properties of this stirring can be characterized by statistically quantifying tracer structures. Here, we characterize the macroscale (1–100 km) tracer structures observed by two Seagliders downstream of the Southwest Indian Ridge in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). These are some of the first glider observations in an energetic standing meander of the ACC, a region associated with enhanced ventilation. The small‐scale density variance in the mixed layer (ML) was relatively enhanced near the surface and base of the ML, while being muted at mid‐depth in the ML, suggesting the formation mechanism to be associated with ML instabilities and eddies. In addition, ML density fronts were formed by comparable contributions from temperature and salinity gradients. In the interior, along‐isopycnal spectra and structure functions of spice indicated that there is relatively lower variance at smaller scales than would be expected based on non‐local stirring, suggesting that flows smaller than the deformation radius play a role in the cascade of tracers to small scales. These interior spice anomalies spanned across isopycnals, and were found to be about 3–5 times flatter than the aspect ratio that would be expected for O(1) Burger number flows like interior QG dynamics, suggesting the ratio of vertical shear to horizontal strain is greater thanN/f. This further supports that small‐scale flows, with high‐mode vertical structures, impact tracer distributions. 

Abstract Variability in oceanic conditions directly impacts ice loss from marine outlet glaciers in Greenland, influencing the ice sheet mass balance. Oceanic conditions are available from Atmosphere‐Ocean Global Climate Model (AOGCM) output, but these models require extensive computational resources and lack the fine resolution needed to simulate ocean dynamics on the Greenland continental shelf and close to glacier marine termini. Here, we develop a statistical approach to generate ocean forcing for ice sheet model simulations, which incorporates natural spatiotemporal variability and anthropogenic changes. Starting from raw AOGCM ocean heat content, we apply: (a) a bias‐correction using ocean reanalysis, (b) an extrapolation accounting for on‐shelf ocean dynamics, and (c) stochastic time series models to generate realizations of natural variability. The bias‐correction reduces model errors by ∼25% when compared to independent in‐situ measurements. The bias‐corrected time series are subsequently extrapolated to fjord mouth locations using relations constrained from available high‐resolution regional ocean model results. The stochastic time series models reproduce the spatial correlation, characteristic timescales, and the amplitude of natural variability of bias‐corrected AOGCMs, but at negligible computational expense. We demonstrate the efficiency of this method by generating >6,000 time series of ocean forcing for >200 Greenland marine‐terminating glacier locations until 2100. As our method is computationally efficient and adaptable to any ocean model output and reanalysis product, it provides flexibility in exploring sensitivity to ocean conditions in Greenland ice sheet model simulations. We provide the output and workflow in an open‐source repository, and discuss advantages and future developments for our method. 

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice gradually increased from the late 1970s until 2016, when it experienced an abrupt decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed for both the gradual increase and abrupt decline of Antarctic sea ice, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatial-temporal structure of observed Antarctic sea-ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea-surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode, and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low, and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea-ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. This mode is associated with periods of abrupt Antarctic sea-ice decline and is related to a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat convergence. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea-ice and global sea-surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability causes abrupt sea ice changes. 

Abstract Arctic sea ice extent continues to decline at an unprecedented rate that is commonly underestimated by climate projection models. This disagreement may imply biases in the representation of processes that bring heat to the sea ice in these models. Here we reveal interactions between ocean-ice heat fluxes, sea ice cover, and upper-ocean eddies that constitute a positive feedback missing in climate models. Using an eddy-resolving global ocean model, we demonstrate that ocean-ice heat fluxes are predominantly induced by localized and intermittent ocean eddies, filaments, and internal waves that episodically advect warm subsurface waters into the mixed layer where they are in direct contact with sea ice. The energetics of near-surface eddies interacting with sea ice are modulated by frictional dissipation in ice-ocean boundary layers, being dominant under consolidated winter ice but substantially reduced under low-concentrated weak sea ice in marginal ice zones. Our results indicate that Arctic sea ice loss will reduce upper-ocean dissipation, which will produce more energetic eddies and amplified ocean-ice heat exchange. We thus emphasize the need for sea ice-aware parameterizations of eddy-induced ice-ocean heat fluxes in climate models. 

Abstract The reorganization of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is often associated with changes in Earth’s climate. These AMOC changes are communicated to the Indo-Pacific basins via wave processes and induce an overturning circulation anomaly that opposes the Atlantic changes on decadal to centennial time scales. We examine the role of this transient, interbasin overturning response, driven by an AMOC weakening, both in an ocean-only model with idealized geometry and in a coupled CO 2 quadrupling experiment, in which the ocean warms on two distinct time scales: a fast decadal surface warming and a slow centennial subsurface warming. We show that the transient interbasin overturning produces a zonal heat redistribution between the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific basins. Following a weakened AMOC, an anomalous northward heat transport emerges in the Indo-Pacific, which substantially compensates for the Atlantic southward heat transport anomaly. This zonal heat redistribution manifests as a thermal interbasin seesaw between the high-latitude North Atlantic and the subsurface Indo-Pacific and helps to explain why Antarctic temperature records generally show more gradual changes than the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period. In the coupled CO 2 quadrupling experiment, we find that the interbasin heat transport due to a weakened AMOC contributes substantially to the slow centennial subsurface warming in the Indo-Pacific, accounting for more than half of the heat content increase and sea level rise. Thus, our results suggest that the transient interbasin overturning circulation is a key component of the global ocean heat budget in a changing climate. 

Abstract Marginal ice zones are composed of discrete sea‐ice floes, whose dynamics are not well captured by the continuum representation of sea ice in most climate models. This study makes use of an ocean large eddy simulation (LES) model, coupled to cylindrical sea‐ice floes, to investigate thermal and mechanical interactions between melt‐induced submesoscale features and sea‐ice floes, during summer conditions. We explore the sensitivity of sea‐ice melt rates and upper‐ocean turbulence properties to floe size, ice‐ocean drag, and surface winds. Under low wind conditions, upper ocean turbulence transports warm cyclonic filaments from the open ocean toward the center of the floes and enhances their basal melt. This heat transport is partially suppressed by trapping of ice within cold anticyclonic features. When winds are stronger, melt rates are enhanced by the decoupling of floes from the cold, melt‐induced lens underneath sea ice. Distinct dynamical regimes emerge in which the influence of warm filaments on sea‐ice melt is mitigated by the strength of ice‐ocean coupling and eddy size relative to floe size. Simple scaling laws, which may help parameterize these processes in coarse continuum‐based sea‐ice models, successfully capture floe melt rates under these limiting regimes. 

Abstract. The ice shelves of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet experience basal meltinginduced by underlying warm, salty Circumpolar Deep Water. Basal meltwater,along with runoff from ice sheets, supplies fresh buoyant water to acirculation feature near the coast, the Antarctic Coastal Current (AACC). The formation, structure, and coherence of the AACC has been well documented along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Observations from instrumented seals collected in the Bellingshausen Sea offer extensive hydrographic coverage throughout the year, providing evidence of the continuation of the westward flowing AACC from the WAP towards the Amundsen Sea. The observations reported here demonstrate that the coastal boundary current enters the eastern Bellingshausen Sea from the WAP and flows westward along the face of multiple ice shelves, including the westernmost Abbot Ice Shelf. The presence of the AACC in the western Bellingshausen Sea has implications for the export of water properties into the eastern Amundsen Sea, which we suggest may occur through multiple pathways, either along the coast or along the continental shelf break. The temperature, salinity, and density structure of the current indicates an increase in baroclinic transport as the AACC flows from the east to the west, and as it entrains meltwater from the ice shelves in the Bellingshausen Sea. The AACC acts as a mechanism to transport meltwater out of the Bellingshausen Sea and into the Amundsen and Ross seas, with the potential to impact, respectively, basal melt rates and bottom water formation in these regions.