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  1. Abstract. Paleoclimate reconstructions of the Early Eocene provide important data constraints on the climate and hydrologic cycle under extreme warm conditions. Available terrestrial water isotope records have been primarily interpreted to signal an enhanced hydrologic cycle in the Early Eocene associated with large-scale warming induced by high atmospheric CO2. However, orbital-scale variations in these isotope records have been difficult to quantify and largely overlooked, even though orbitally driven changes in solar irradiance can impact temperature and the hydrologic cycle. In this study, we fill this gap using water isotope–climate simulations to investigate the orbital sensitivity of Earth's hydrologic cycle under different CO2 background states. We analyze the relative difference between climatic changes resulting from CO2 and orbital changes and find that the seasonal climate responses to orbital changes are larger than CO2-driven changes in several regions. Using terrestrial δ18O and δ2H records from the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), we compare our modeled isotopic seasonal range to fossil evidence and find approximate agreement between empirical and simulated isotopic compositions. The limitations surrounding the equilibrated snapshot simulations of this transient event and empirical data include timing and time interval discrepancies between model and data, the preservation state of the proxy, analytical uncertainty, the relationship between δ18O or δ2H and environmental context, and vegetation uncertainties within the simulations. In spite of the limitations, this study illustrates the utility of fully coupled, isotope-enabled climate models when comparing climatic changes and interpreting proxy records in times of extreme warmth.

     
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  2. Here, we show that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides a stronger constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the global warming from increasing greenhouse gases, after accounting for temperature patterns. Feedbacks governing ECS depend on spatial patterns of surface temperature (“pattern effects”); hence, using the LGM to constrain future warming requires quantifying how temperature patterns produce different feedbacks during LGM cooling versus modern-day warming. Combining data assimilation reconstructions with atmospheric models, we show that the climate is more sensitive to LGM forcing because ice sheets amplify extratropical cooling where feedbacks are destabilizing. Accounting for LGM pattern effects yields a median modern-day ECS of 2.4°C, 66% range 1.7° to 3.5°C (1.4° to 5.0°C, 5 to 95%), from LGM evidence alone. Combining the LGM with other lines of evidence, the best estimate becomes 2.9°C, 66% range 2.4° to 3.5°C (2.1° to 4.1°C, 5 to 95%), substantially narrowing uncertainty compared to recent assessments.

     
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 19, 2025
  3. Paleohydrologic proxy data and climate models show how and why eccentricity and precession influenced early Eocene hydroclimate. 
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  4. Abstract. Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a tool for reconstructing past climates that directly integrates proxy records with climate model output. Despite the potential for DA to expand the scope of quantitative paleoclimatology, these methods remain difficult to implement in practice due to the multi-faceted requirements and data handling necessary for DA reconstructions, the diversity of DA methods, and the need for computationally efficient algorithms. Here, we present DASH, a MATLAB toolbox designed to facilitate paleoclimate DA analyses. DASH provides command line and scripting tools that implement common tasks in DA workflows. The toolbox is highly modular and is not built around any specific analysis, and thus DASH supports paleoclimate DA for a wide variety of time periods, spatial regions, proxy networks, and algorithms. DASH includes tools for integrating and cataloguing data stored in disparate formats, building state vector ensembles, and running proxy (system) forward models. The toolbox also provides optimized algorithms for implementing ensemble Kalman filters, particle filters, and optimal sensor analyses with variable and modular parameters. This paper reviews the key components of the DASH toolbox and presents examples illustrating DASH's use for paleoclimate DA applications.

     
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  5. Abstract

    Ancient lake deposits in the Mojave Desert indicate that the water cycle in this currently dry place was radically different under past climates. Here we revisit a 700 m core drilled 55 years ago from Searles Valley, California, that recovered evidence for a lacustrine phase during the late Pliocene. We update the paleomagnetic age model and extract new biomarker evidence for climatic conditions from lacustrine deposits (3.373–2.706 Ma). The MBT′5Metemperature proxy detects present‐day conditions (21 ± 3°C,n = 2) initially, followed by warmer‐than‐present conditions (25 ± 3°C,n = 17) starting at 3.268 and ending at 2.734 Ma. Bacterial and archeal biomarkers reveal lake salinity increased after 3.268 Ma likely reflecting increased evaporation in response to higher temperatures. The δ13C values of plant waxes (−30.7 ± 1.4‰,n = 28) are consistent with local C3taxa, likely expanded conifer woodlands during the pluvial with less C4than the Pleistocene. δD values (−174 ± 5‰,n = 25) of plant waxes indicate precipitation δD values (−89 ± 5‰,n = 25) in the late Pliocene are within the same range as the late Pleistocene precipitation δD. Microbial biomarkers identify a deep, freshwater lake and a cooling that corresponds to the onset of major Northern Hemisphere glaciation at marine isotope stage marine isotope stages M2 (3.3 Ma). A more saline lake persisted for ∼0.6 Ma across the subsequent warmth of the late Pliocene (3.268–2.734 Ma) before the lake desiccated at the Pleistocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation.

     
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  6. The response of the terrestrial biosphere to warming remains one of the most poorly understood and quantified aspects of the climate system. One way to test the behavior of the Earth system in warm climate states is to examine the geological record. The abundance, distribution, and/or isotopic composition of source-specific organic molecules (biomarkers) have been used to reconstruct terrestrial paleoenvironmental change over a range of geological timescales. Here, we review new or recently improved biomarker approaches for reconstructing ( a) physical climate variables (land temperature, rainfall), ( b) ecosystem state variables (vegetation, fire regime), and ( c) biogeochemical variables (soil residence time, methane cycling). This review encompasses a range of key compound classes (e.g., lipids, lignin, and carbohydrates). In each section, we explore the concept behind key biomarker approaches and discuss their successes as paleoenvironmental indicators. We emphasize that analyzing several biomarkers in tandem can provide unique insights into the Earth system. ▪ Biomarkers can be used to reconstruct terrestrial environmental change over a range of geological timescales. ▪ Analyzing several biomarkers in tandem can provide unique insights into the Earth system. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 50 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates. 
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  7. Abstract

    Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures impact precipitation across the basin through coupled ocean‐atmosphere responses to changes in climate. To understand the hydroclimate response over the western Indian Ocean and equatorial east Africa to different forcing mechanisms, we present four new proxy reconstructions from core VM19‐193 (2.98°N, 51.47°E) that span the last 250 ky. Sub‐surface water temperatures (Sub‐T; TEX86) show strong precessional (23 ky) variability that is primarily influenced by maximum incoming solar radiation (insolation) during the Northern Hemisphere spring season, likely indicating that local insolation dominates the upper water column at this tropical location over time. Leaf waxes, on the other hand, reflect two different precipitation signals:δ13Cwax(in phase with boreal fall insolation) is likely reflecting vegetation changes in response to local rainfall over east Africa, whereasδDprecip(primarily driven by boreal summer insolation) represents changes in regional circulation associated with the summer monsoon. Glacial‐interglacial changes in ocean temperatures support glacial shelf exposure over the Maritime Continent in the eastern Indian Ocean and the subsequent weakening of the Indian Walker Circulation as a mechanism driving 100 ky climate variability across the tropical Indo‐Pacific. Additionally, the 100 ky spectral power inδDprecipsupports a basin‐wide weakening of summer monsoon circulation in response to glacial climates. Overall, the proxy records from VM19‐193 indicate that both precession and glacial‐interglacial cycles exert control over hydroclimate at this tropical location.

     
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