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Abstract We incorporate the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) module in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model Version 6 with interactive chemistry (CAM6‐chem), and couple it with the four mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). The MOSAIC module is used to simulate the thermodynamics of the gas‐aerosol mass exchange, with a special focus on simulating nitrate aerosol. By comparing against ground and satellite observations, we found that the MOSAIC/MAM4 scheme performs reasonably well in simulating spatiotemporal distributions of aerosols, including nitrate aerosol. We conducted a series of model experiments with and without nitrate aerosols, and examined the radiative effect (RE) associated with nitrate aerosols in 1975, 2000, and 2010, and accessed the radiative forcing (RF) of nitrate aerosols between the present day and pre‐industrial periods. Comparing with the nitrate aerosol RE, we predicted relatively small RF of anthropogenic nitrate aerosol from aerosol‐radiation interactions (RFari: −0.014 W m−2) and large RF from aerosol‐cloud interactions (RFaci: −0.219 W m−2). Regional signatures of nitrate RE/RF are noticeable and important: for instance, very small changes in REariin Europe and USA, but 2.8–3 times increases in REariin India and China from 1975 to 2010, while REaci/RFaciin China is a warming effect due to the competing effect between sulfate and nitrate aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei.
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null (Ed.)Our understanding of the processes that control the burden and budget of tropospheric ozone has changed dramatically over the last 60 years. Models are the key tools used to understand these changes, and these underscore that there are many processes important in controlling the tropospheric ozone budget. In this critical review, we assess our evolving understanding of these processes, both physical and chemical. We review model simulations from the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Chemistry Climate Modelling Initiative to assess the changes in the tropospheric ozone burden and its budget from 1850 to 2010. Analysis of these data indicates that there has been significant growth in the ozone burden from 1850 to 2000 (approximately 43 ± 9%) but smaller growth between 1960 and 2000 (approximately 16 ± 10%) and that the models simulate burdens of ozone well within recent satellite estimates. The Chemistry Climate Modelling Initiative model ozone budgets indicate that the net chemical production of ozone in the troposphere plateaued in the 1990s and has not changed since then inspite of increases in the burden. There has been a shift in net ozone production in the troposphere being greatest in the northern mid and high latitudes to the northern tropics, driven by the regional evolution of precursor emissions. An analysis of the evolution of tropospheric ozone through the 21st century, as simulated by Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, reveals a large source of uncertainty associated with models themselves (i.e., in the way that they simulate the chemical and physical processes that control tropospheric ozone). This structural uncertainty is greatest in the near term (two to three decades), but emissions scenarios dominate uncertainty in the longer term (2050–2100) evolution of tropospheric ozone. This intrinsic model uncertainty prevents robust predictions of near-term changes in the tropospheric ozone burden, and we review how progress can be made to reduce this limitation.more » « less
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Abstract Geoengineering methods could potentially offset aspects of greenhouse gas‐driven climate change. However, before embarking on any such strategy, a comprehensive understanding of its impacts must be obtained. Here, a 20‐member ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component is used to investigate the projected hydroclimate changes that occur when greenhouse gas‐driven warming, under a high emissions scenario, is offset with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. Notable features of the late 21st century hydroclimate response, relative to present day, include a reduction in precipitation in the Indian summer monsoon, over much of Africa, Amazonia and southern Chile and a wintertime precipitation reduction over the Mediterranean. Over most of these regions, the soil desiccation that occurs with global warming is, however, largely offset by the geoengineering. A notable exception is India, where soil desiccation and an approximate doubling of the likelihood of monsoon failures occurs. The role of stratospheric heating in the simulated hydroclimate change is determined through additional experiments where the aerosol‐induced stratospheric heating is imposed as a temperature tendency, within the same model, under present day conditions. Stratospheric heating is found to play a key role in many aspects of projected hydroclimate change, resulting in a general wet‐get‐drier, dry‐get‐wetter pattern in the tropics and extratropical precipitation changes through midlatitude circulation shifts. While a rather extreme geoengineering scenario has been considered, many, but not all, of the precipitation features scale linearly with the offset global warming.
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Abstract Tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution is known to damage vegetation, reducing photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, resulting in modified plant transpiration to the atmosphere. We use an Earth system model to show that global transpiration response to near‐present‐day surface tropospheric ozone results in large‐scale global perturbations to net outgoing long‐wave and incoming shortwave radiation. Our results suggest that the radiative effect is dominated by a reduction in shortwave cloud forcing in polluted regions, in response to ozone‐induced reduction in land‐atmosphere moisture flux and atmospheric humidity. We simulate a statistically significant response of annual surface air temperature of up to ~ +1.5 K due to this ozone effect in vegetated regions subjected to ozone pollution. This mechanism is expected to further increase the net warming resulting from historic and future increases in tropospheric ozone.
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Abstract An overview of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long preindustrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low‐top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high‐top” (130 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low‐latitude precipitation and shortwave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation; better El Niño‐Southern Oscillation‐related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low‐ and high‐top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1–5.3 °C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2's transient climate response of 1.9–2.0 °C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and they represent CESM2's contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.