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Many natural disturbances have a strong climate forcing, and concern is rising about how ecosystems will respond to disturbance regimes to which they are not adapted. Novelty can arise either as attributes of the disturbance regime (e.g., frequency, severity, duration) shift beyond their historical ranges of variation or as new disturbance agents not present historically emerge. How much novelty ecological systems can absorb and whether changing disturbance regimes will lead to novel outcomes is determined by the ecological responses of communities, which are also subject to change. Powerful conceptual frameworks exist for anticipating consequences of novel disturbance regimes, but these remain challenging to apply in real-world settings. Nonlinear relationships (e.g., tipping points, feedbacks) are of particular concern because of their disproportionate effects. Future research should quantify the rise of novelty in disturbance regimes and assess the capacity of ecosystems to respond to these changes. Novel disturbance regimes will be potent catalysts for ecological change. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 54 is November 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates. 

Abstract Asian pheretimoid earthworms of the genera Amynthas and Metaphire (jumping worms) are leading a new wave of coinvasion into Northeastern and Midwestern states, with potential consequences for native organisms and ecosystem processes. However, little is known about their distribution, abundance, and habitat preferences in urban landscapes—areas that will likely influence their range expansion via human-driven spread. We led a participatory field campaign to assess jumping worm distribution and abundance in Madison, Wisconsin, in the United States. By compressing 250 person-hours of sampling effort into a single day, we quantified the presence and abundance of three jumping worm species across different land-cover types (forest, grassland, open space, and residential lawns and gardens), finding that urban green spaces differed in invasibility. We show that community science can be powerful for researching invasive species while engaging the public in conservation. This approach was particularly effective in the present study, where broad spatial sampling was required within a short temporal window. 

Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. When combined, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.