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Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) and three time periods: 1991–2010 (recent past), 2041–2060 (mid‐century) and 2081–2100 (end‐century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90‐day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end‐century/SSP5‐8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop‐growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo‐Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End‐century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid‐century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions—reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub‐Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor‐intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning.

 

Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (T_w) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C T_wmodel in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to T_w~25.8–34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than T_w = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.

 

Abstract Background Most physical activity (PA) during school occurs at recess; however, recess PA may be influenced by children’s thermal comfort and interaction with nature, neither of which have concurrently been measured reliably in previous studies. This study tests the reliability of SOPLAY-SN, an adaption of the validated System for Observing Play and Leisure Activity in Youth (SOPLAY) to measure Shade and Nature (SN) alongside PA, and associations between children’s PA and interaction with shade and nature during recess to highlight the utility of the tool. Methods Interactions with shade and nature were measured using systematic direct observation at two playgrounds (primary-grade = ages 5–8, upper-grade = ages 9–12) during recess at an elementary school in Phoenix, Arizona (USA). Pairs conducted observations over four warm days (primary = 29–34 °C, upper-grade = 32–36 °C) in May 2021 ( N  = 179 scans). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were used to calculate inter-rater reliability. Mean counts, frequencies, and Kendall rank correlation coefficient tests were used to assess relations between PA level and interactions with shade and nature. Results Reliability was good for sedentary behavior (ICC = 0.98); light PA (LPA; ICC = 0.80) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA; ICC = 0.94); shade interaction (ICC = 0.95); and nature interaction (ICC = 0.80) and average agreement was good (86% overall PA, 88% shade, 90% nature). Most (60%) primary-grade children were observed in the shade, with 64% under a covered play structure where children were mainly (47%) sedentary. Of the 11% of primary-grade students observed interacting with nature, 90% occurred in a grass field with trees. Among upper-grade children, 23% were observed in the shade with 53% in grass fields where 48% of play was light. Few (7%) upper-grade children were observed interacting with nature, with most instances (76%) in a grass field with trees. Among primary-grade children, shade was correlated with sedentary behavior ( τ b  = 0.63, p  < .05); LPA ( τ b  = 0.39, p  < .05); MVPA ( τ b  = 0.56, p  < .05); and nature interactions with sedentary behavior ( τ b  = 0.16, p  < .05). Among upper-grade children, shade was correlated with sedentary behavior ( τ b  = 0.27, p  < .05) and LPA ( τ b  = 0.21, p  < .05). Conclusions SOPLAY-SN is a reliable tool for measuring children’s interaction with shade and nature and participation in PA. Understanding how shade and nature impact movement during recess can inform playground design for children’s health and well-being.