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Abstract The South American summer monsoon (SASM) generates important hydroclimatic impacts in (sub‐)tropical South America and isotopic tracers recorded in paleoclimatic archives allow for assessing its long‐term response to Pacific variability prior to modern observations. Stable oxygen isotopes in precipitation integrate hydroclimatic changes during the SASM mature phase from December to February (DJF) in response to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. Here, results from the isotope‐enabled Community Atmosphere Model v.5 are compared with highly resolved and precisely dated isotopic records from speleothems, tree rings, lake and ice cores during the industrial era (1880–2000 CE) and validated against observations from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) network. Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are coupled to the isotopic composition of SASM precipitation through perturbations in the Walker circulation associated with low‐ (IPO) and high‐frequency (ENSO) variability, impacting convective activity over tropical South America and the tropical Atlantic. Changes in convection over this monsoon entrance region ultimately control the downstream oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation recorded in paleoclimate archives. Overall, model results, paleoclimate records and IAEA data agree on the isotopic response to Pacific SST forcing. These results highlight the potential for long isotopic paleoclimate records to reconstruct Pacific climate variability on both high‐ and low‐frequency timescales. Furthermore, the isolation of the IPO signal in a diverse set of isotopic archives invites the reinterpretation of other paleoclimate proxies for identifying this historically overlooked forcing. 

Climate changes during the mid- to late-Holocene, after the last vestiges of glacial ice sheets dwindled, provide important context for climate change today. In the tropical Andes, most of the continuous paleoclimate records covering the late Holocene are derived from the oxygen isotope composition of ice cores, speleothems, and lake carbonates. These archives are powerful recorders of large-scale changes in circulation and monsoon intensity, but they do not necessarily capture local moisture balance, and so reconstructions of local precipitation and aridity remain scarce. Here we present contrasting histories of local effective moisture vs. regional circulation from several new biomarker records preserved in lakes and peat in the Colombian and Peruvian Andes. We focus on the hydrogen isotope composition of long-chain plant waxes, which reflects precipitation δ2H similarly to δ18O from ice cores and speleothems; and the δ13C of waxes and the δ2H of mid-chain waxes, which reflect local water stress and effective moisture. In both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere tropical Andes, fairly gradual δ2H shifts during the late Holocene indicate a progressive intensification of circulation in the South American lowlands. On the other hand, plant wax δ13C and mid-chain δ2H records indicate abrupt transitions into and out of intervals of water stress and aridity – similar to findings from pollen and sediment lithology from elsewhere in the tropical Andes. We draw on climate models and proxy data syntheses to help reconcile these curiously different accounts of effective moisture in the tropical Andes since the mid-Holocene and discuss implications for modern climate research. 

Abstract A paradigm in paleoclimatology holds that shifts in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone were the dominant climatic mechanism controlling rainfall in the tropics during the last glacial period. We present a new paleo-rainfall reconstruction based on speleothem stable oxygen isotopes record from Colombia, which spans most of the last glacial cycle. The strength and positioning of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over northern South America were more strongly affected by summer insolation at high northern latitudes than by local insolation during the last glacial cycle, resulting in an antiphased relationship with climate in the Cariaco Basin. Our data also provide new insight into how orbital forcing amplified/dampened Intertropical Convergence Zone precipitation during millennial-scale events. During Greenland Stadial events, the Intertropical Convergence Zone was positioned close to the latitude of El Peñon, as expressed by more negative δ¹⁸O values. Greenland Interstadial events are marked by relatively high stable oxygen isotope values and reduced rainfall in the El Peñon record, suggesting a northward withdrawal of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. During some Heinrich Stadial events, and especially Heinrich Stadial 1, the Intertropical Convergence Zone must have been displaced away from its modern location near El Peñon, as conditions were very dry at both El Peñon and Cariaco. 

Abstract Many mountain regions around the world are exposed to enhanced warming when compared to their surroundings, threatening key environmental services provided by mountains. Here we investigate this effect, known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), in the Andes of Ecuador, using observations and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. EDW is discernible in observations of mean and maximum temperature in the Andes of Ecuador, but large uncertainties remain due to considerable data gaps in both space and time. WRF simulations of present-day (1986–2005) and future climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2041–60) reveal a very distinct EDW signal, with different rates of warming on the eastern and western slopes. This EDW effect is the combined result of multiple feedback mechanisms that operate on different spatial scales. Enhanced upper-tropospheric warming projects onto surface temperature on both sides of the Andes. In addition, changes in the zonal mean midtropospheric circulation lead to enhanced subsidence and warming over the western slopes at high elevation. The increased subsidence also induces drying, reduces cloudiness, and results in enhanced net surface radiation receipts, further contributing to stronger warming. Finally, the highest elevations are also affected by the snow-albedo feedback, due to significant reductions in snow cover by the middle of the twenty-first century. While these feedbacks are more pronounced in the high-emission scenario RCP8.5, our results indicate that high elevations in Ecuador will continue to warm at enhanced rates in the twenty-first century, regardless of emission scenario. Significance StatementMountains are often projected to experience stronger warming than their surrounding lowlands going forward, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), which can threaten high-altitude ecosystems and lead to accelerated glacier retreat. We investigate the mechanisms associated with EDW in the Andes of Ecuador using both observations and model simulations for the present and the future. A combination of factors amplify warming at mountain tops, including a stronger warming high in the atmosphere, reduced cloudiness, and a reduction of snow and ice at high elevations. The latter two factors also favor enhanced absorption of sunlight, which promotes warming. The degree to which this warming is enhanced at high elevations in the future depends on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. 

Abstract Based on new and published cosmic-ray exposure chronologies, we show that glacier extent in the tropical Andes and the north Atlantic regions (TANAR) varied in-phase on millennial timescales during the Holocene, distinct from other regions. Glaciers experienced an early Holocene maximum extent, followed by a strong mid-Holocene retreat and a re-advance in the late Holocene. We further explore the potential forcing of TANAR glacier variations using transient climate simulations. Since the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) evolution is poorly represented in these transient simulations, we develop a semi-empirical model to estimate the “AMOC-corrected” temperature and precipitation footprint at regional scales. We show that variations in the AMOC strength during the Holocene are consistent with the observed glacier changes. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain past AMOC behavior, as it may be an important driver of TANAR glacier variations during the Holocene, superimposed on other forcing mechanisms. 

Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions. 

Abstract In the Amazon basin, intense precipitation recycling across the forest significantly modifies the isotopic composition of rainfall (δ¹⁸O, δD). In the tropical hydrologic cycle, such an effect can be identified through deuterium excess (dxs), yet it remains unclear what environmental factors control dxs, increasing the uncertainty of dxs‐based paleoclimate reconstructions. Here we present a 4‐year record of the isotopic composition of rainfall, monitored in the northwestern Amazon basin. We analyze the isotopic variations as a function of the air mass history, based on atmospheric back trajectory analyses, satellite observations of precipitation upstream, leaf area index, and simulated moisture recycling along the transport pathway. We show that the precipitation recycling in the forest exerts a significant control on the isotopic composition of precipitation in the northwestern Amazon basin, especially on dxs during the dry season (r= 0.71). Applying these observations to existing speleothem and pollen paleorecords, we conclude that winter precipitation increased after the mid‐Holocene, as the expansion of the forest allowed for more moisture recycling. Therefore, forest effects should be considered when interpreting paleorecords of past precipitation changes.