Current earthquake forecasting approaches are mainly based on probabilistic assumptions, as earthquakes seem to occur randomly. Such apparent randomness can however be caused by deterministic chaos, rendering deterministic short‐term forecasts possible. Due to the short historical and instrumental record of earthquakes, chaos detection has proven challenging, but more frequently occurring slow slip events (SSE) are promising candidates to probe for determinism. Here, we characterize the SSE signatures obtained from GNSS position time series in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone (New Zealand) to investigate whether the seemingly random SSE occurrence is governed by chaotic determinism. We find evidence for deterministic chaos for stations recording shallow SSEs, suggesting that short‐term deterministic forecasting of SSEs, similar to weather forecasts, might indeed be possible over timescales of a few weeks. We anticipate that our findings could open the door for next‐generation SSE forecasting, adding new tools to existing probabilistic approaches.
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Abstract Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 28, 2025 -
Importance The p.Asp67Tyr genetic variant in the GJA3 gene is responsible for congenital cataracts in a family with a high incidence of glaucoma following cataract surgery. Objective To describe the clinical features of a family with a strong association between congenital cataracts and glaucoma following cataract surgery secondary to a genetic variant in the GJA3 gene ( NM_021954 .4:c.199G>T, p.Asp67Tyr). Design, Setting, and Participants This was a retrospective, observational, case series, genetic association study from the University of Iowa spanning 61 years. Examined were the ophthalmic records from 1961 through 2022 of the family members of a 4-generation pedigree with autosomal dominant congenital cataracts. Main Outcomes and Measures Frequency of glaucoma following cataract surgery and postoperative complications among family members with congenital cataract due to the p.Asp67Tyr GJA3 genetic variant. Results Medical records were available from 11 of 12 family members (7 male [63.6%]) with congenital cataract with a mean (SD) follow-up of 30 (21.7) years (range, 0.2-61 years). Eight of 9 patients with congenital cataracts developed glaucoma, and 8 of 8 patients who had cataract surgery at age 2 years or younger developed glaucoma following cataract surgery. The only family member with congenital cataracts who did not develop glaucoma had delayed cataract surgery until 12 and 21 years of age. Five of 11 family members (45.5%) had retinal detachments after cataract extraction and vitrectomy. No patients developed retinal detachments after prophylactic 360-degree endolaser. Conclusions and Relevance The GJA3 genetic variant, p.Asp67Tyr, was identified in a 4-generation congenital cataract pedigree from Iowa. This report suggests that patients with congenital cataract due to some GJA3 genetic variants may be at especially high risk for glaucoma following cataract surgery. Retinal detachments after cataract extraction in the first 2 years of life were also common in this family, and prophylactic retinal endolaser may be indicated at the time of surgery.more » « less
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Abstract Seafloor pressure sensor data is emerging as a promising approach to resolve vertical displacement of the seafloor in the offshore reaches of subduction zones, particularly in response to slow slip events (SSEs), although such signals are challenging to resolve due to sensor drift and oceanographic signals. Constraining offshore SSE slip distribution is of key importance to understanding earthquake and tsunami hazards posed by subduction zones. We processed seafloor pressure data from January to October 2019 acquired at the Hikurangi subduction zone, offshore New Zealand, to estimate vertical displacement associated with a large SSE that occurred beneath the seafloor array. The experiment included three self‐calibrating sensors designed to remove sensor drift, which, together with ocean general circulation models, were essential to the identification and correction of long‐period ocean variability remaining in the data after applying traditional processing techniques. We estimate that long‐period oceanographic signals that were not synchronous between pressure sensors and reference sites influenced our inferred displacements by 0.3–2.6 cm, suggesting that regionally deployed reference sites alone may not provide sufficient ocean noise correction. After incorporating long‐period ocean variability corrections into the processing, we calculate 1.0–3.3 cm of uplift during the SSE offshore Gisborne at northern Hikurangi, and 1.1–2.7 cm of uplift offshore the Hawke's Bay area at central Hikurangi. Some Hawke Bay displacements detected by pressure sensors near the trench were delayed by 6 weeks compared to the timing of slip onset detected by onshore Global Navigation Satellite System sites, suggesting updip migration of the SSE.
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Abstract Gravitational lensing by massive objects along the line of sight to the source causes distortions to gravitational wave (GW) signals; such distortions may reveal information about fundamental physics, cosmology, and astrophysics. In this work, we have extended the search for lensing signatures to all binary black hole events from the third observing run of the LIGO-Virgo network. We search for repeated signals from strong lensing by (1) performing targeted searches for subthreshold signals, (2) calculating the degree of overlap among the intrinsic parameters and sky location of pairs of signals, (3) comparing the similarities of the spectrograms among pairs of signals, and (4) performing dual-signal Bayesian analysis that takes into account selection effects and astrophysical knowledge. We also search for distortions to the gravitational waveform caused by (1) frequency-independent phase shifts in strongly lensed images, and (2) frequency-dependent modulation of the amplitude and phase due to point masses. None of these searches yields significant evidence for lensing. Finally, we use the nondetection of GW lensing to constrain the lensing rate based on the latest merger-rate estimates and the fraction of dark matter composed of compact objects.
Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 31, 2025 -
Abstract We report the observation of a coalescing compact binary with component masses 2.5–4.5
M ⊙and 1.2–2.0M ⊙(all measurements quoted at the 90% credible level). The gravitational-wave signal GW230529_181500 was observed during the fourth observing run of the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA detector network on 2023 May 29 by the LIGO Livingston observatory. The primary component of the source has a mass less than 5M ⊙at 99% credibility. We cannot definitively determine from gravitational-wave data alone whether either component of the source is a neutron star or a black hole. However, given existing estimates of the maximum neutron star mass, we find the most probable interpretation of the source to be the coalescence of a neutron star with a black hole that has a mass between the most massive neutron stars and the least massive black holes observed in the Galaxy. We provisionally estimate a merger rate density of for compact binary coalescences with properties similar to the source of GW230529_181500; assuming that the source is a neutron star–black hole merger, GW230529_181500-like sources may make up the majority of neutron star–black hole coalescences. The discovery of this system implies an increase in the expected rate of neutron star–black hole mergers with electromagnetic counterparts and provides further evidence for compact objects existing within the purported lower mass gap.Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 26, 2025 -
Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 30, 2025
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Abstract We present Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (Fermi-GBM) and Swift Burst Alert Telescope (Swift-BAT) searches for gamma-ray/X-ray counterparts to gravitational-wave (GW) candidate events identified during the third observing run of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. Using Fermi-GBM onboard triggers and subthreshold gamma-ray burst (GRB) candidates found in the Fermi-GBM ground analyses, the Targeted Search and the Untargeted Search, we investigate whether there are any coincident GRBs associated with the GWs. We also search the Swift-BAT rate data around the GW times to determine whether a GRB counterpart is present. No counterparts are found. Using both the Fermi-GBM Targeted Search and the Swift-BAT search, we calculate flux upper limits and present joint upper limits on the gamma-ray luminosity of each GW. Given these limits, we constrain theoretical models for the emission of gamma rays from binary black hole mergers.
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Abstract We constrain orientations of the horizontal stress field from borehole image data in a transect across the Hikurangi Subduction Margin. This region experiences NW‐SE convergence and is the site of recurrent slow slip events. The direction of the horizontal maximum stress is E‐W at an active splay thrust fault near the subduction margin trench. This trend changes to NNW‐SSE in a forearc trench slope basin on the offshore accretionary wedge, and to NE‐SW in the onshore forearc. Multiple, tectonic, and geological processes, either individually or in concert, may explain this variability. The observed offshore to onshore stress rotation may reflect a change from dominantly compressional tectonics at the deformation front, to a strike‐slip and/or extensional tectonic regime closer to the Taupo Volcanic Zone, further inland. In addition, the offshore stress may be affected by topography and/or stress rotation around subducting seamounts, and/or temporal stress changes during the slow slip cycle.