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Ancient texts and archaeological evidence indicate substantial lead exposure during antiquity that potentially impacted human health. Although lead exposure routes were many and included the use of glazed tablewares, paints, cosmetics, and even intentional ingestion, the most significant for the nonelite, rural majority of the population may have been through background air pollution from mining and smelting of silver and lead ores that underpinned the Roman economy. Here, we determined potential health effects of this air pollution using Arctic ice core measurements of Roman-era lead pollution, atmospheric modeling, and modern epidemiology-based relationships between air concentrations, blood lead levels (BLLs), and cognitive decline. Findings suggest air lead concentrations exceeded 150 ng/m³near metallurgical emission sources, with average enhancements of >1.0 ng/m³over Europe during the Pax Romana apogee of the Roman Empire. The result was blood lead enhancements in young children of about 2.4 µg/dl above an estimated Neolithic background of 1.0 µg/dl, leading to widespread cognitive decline including a 2.5-to-3 point reduction in intelligence quotient throughout the Roman Empire. 

The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventually, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identifying the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forcing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 °C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization.