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The global food production system is increasingly strained by abrupt and unpredictable weather events, which hinder communities' ability to adapt to climate variations. Despite advances in meteorological predictions, many communities lack the academic knowledge or infrastructure to interpret these complex models. This gap highlights the need for solutions that make climate forecasts more accessible and actionable, especially for communities reliant on natural resources. This study explores the potential of enhancing seasonal climate forecasts by integrating local ecological knowledge (LEK) with scientific data. Specifically, we combined ethnobiological information gathered between 2022 and 2024 with existing oceanographic and ecological data to create an ethnobiological calendar for four fishing cooperatives. An ethnographic approach was used to understand the population's ethnobiological knowledge and their perceptions of marine heatwaves and climate change impacts. Coastal monitoring data was collected using moorings that recorded temperature over a 14-year period (2010–2024). To characterize giant kelp dynamics, we used an existing dataset of multispectral Landsat images, which estimates the surface canopy biomass of giant kelp forests. Ecological monitoring was conducted annually every summer from 2006 to 2023 to record the in situ abundance of ecologically and economically important invertebrate and fish species. Combining oceanographic, ecological, and ethnographic data, allowed for alligning fishers' observations with recorded marine heatwave events and ecological shifts. Our findings revealed that these observations closely matched documented marine heatwave data and corresponding ecological changes. The integration of LEK with scientific oceanographic data can significantly improved our understanding of dynamic climate regimes, offering contextually relevant information that enhances the reliability and utility of seasonal climate forecasts. By incorporating yearly data into an ethnobiological calendar, we promote more inclusive, community-based approaches to environmental management, advocating for the integration of LEK in climate adaptation efforts, emphasizing its crucial role in strengthening resilience strategies against climatic shocks. 

Abstract People often modify the shoreline to mitigate erosion and protect property from storm impacts. The 2 main approaches to modification are gray infrastructure (e.g., bulkheads and seawalls) and natural or green infrastructure (NI) (e.g., living shorelines). Gray infrastructure is still more often used for coastal protection than NI, despite having more detrimental effects on ecosystem parameters, such as biodiversity. We assessed the impact of gray infrastructure on biodiversity and whether the adoption of NI can mitigate its loss. We examined the literature to quantify the relationship of gray infrastructure and NI to biodiversity and developed a model with temporal geospatial data on ecosystem distribution and shoreline modification to project future shoreline modification for our study location, coastal Georgia (United States). We applied the literature‐derived empirical relationships of infrastructure effects on biodiversity to the shoreline modification projections to predict change in biodiversity under different NI versus gray infrastructure scenarios. For our study area, which is dominated by marshes and use of gray infrastructure, when just under half of all new coastal infrastructure was to be NI, previous losses of biodiversity from gray infrastructure could be mitigated by 2100 (net change of biodiversity of +0.14%, 95% confidence interval −0.10% to +0.39%). As biodiversity continues to decline from human impacts, it is increasingly imperative to minimize negative impacts when possible. We therefore suggest policy and the permitting process be changed to promote the adoption of NI. 

Coastal ecosystems and human communities are threatened worldwide by climate change, and shocks from social, market and political change. There is an urgent global need to promote resilient food production and livelihoods in the face of these shocks. Small-scale fisheries (SSF) in rural settings can be particularly vulnerable as they frequently lack the resources, rights and infrastructure to respond to shocks originating outside the focal systems. We examined ecological and social outcomes of environmental extremes in a SSF socio-ecological system (SES) by using long-term oceanographic (between 2010-2019) and ecological (2006-2018) data tracking change in a kelp forest ecosystem of Baja California, Mexico, and concurrent documentation of proactive and reactive actions of a fishing community organized in a cooperative. Results indicate a complex landscape of ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ among species and fisheries exposed to unprecedented environmental extremes, including marine heat waves and prolonged hypoxia, and a suite of adaptive actions by the local fishing cooperative, and others in the region, that have helped confront these rapid and drastic changes. Cooperatives have established voluntary marine reserves to promote recovery of affected populations and have invested in diversification of activities enabled by access rights, collective decision-making, and participatory science programs. Results indicate that local actions can support social and ecological resilience in the face of shocks, and that enabling locally-driven adaptation pathways is critical to resilience. This case study highlights the crucial importance of strengthening and supporting rights, governance, capacity, flexibility, learning, and agency for coastal communities to respond to change and sustain their livelihoods and ecosystems in the long run.