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Abstract In this paper we summarize improvements in climate model simulation of eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) when changing the forcing dataset from the Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE; ∼2° winds) to the higher-resolution Japanese 55-year Atmospheric Reanalysis for driving ocean–sea ice models (JRA55-do, ∼0.5°) and also due to refining ocean grid spacing from 1° to 0.1°. The focus is on sea surface temperature (SST), a key variable for climate studies, and which is typically too warm in climate model representation of EBUS. The change in forcing leads to a better-defined atmospheric low-level coastal jet, leading to more equatorward ocean flow and coastal upwelling, both in turn acting to reduce SST over the upwelling regions off the west coast of North America, Peru, and Chile. The refinement of ocean resolution then leads to narrower and stronger alongshore ocean flow and coastal upwelling, and the emergence of strong across-shore temperature gradients not seen with the coarse ocean model. Off northwest Africa the SST bias mainly improves with ocean resolution but not with forcing, while in the Benguela, JRA55-do with high-resolution ocean leads to lower SST but a substantial bias relative to observations remains. Reasons for the Benguela bias are discussed in the context of companion regional ocean model simulations. Finally, we address to what extent improvements in mean state lead to changes to the monthly to interannual variability. It is found that large-scale SST variability in EBUS on monthly and longer time scales is largely governed by teleconnections from climate modes and less sensitive to model resolution and forcing than the mean state. 

The process of seeking, sampling, and characterizing deep hydrothermal systems is benefited by the use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) equipped with in situ sensors. Traditional AUV operations require multiple deployments with manual data analysis by ship-board scientists. Development of advanced autonomous methods that analyze in situ data in real-time and allow the vehicle itself to make decisions would improve the efficiency of operations and enable new frontiers in exploration at hydrothermal systems on Ocean Worlds. Adaptive robotic decision making is facilitated by computational models of hydrothermal systems and selected in situ sensors used to refine and validate these predictions. Improving autonomous missions requires better models, and thus an understanding of how different sensors respond to hydrothermally altered seawater. During cruise AT50-15 (Juan De Fuca Ridge, 2023), we performed surveys of the hydrothermal plumes at the Endeavour Segment with AUV Sentry to investigate the utility of in situ sensors measuring tracers such as oxidation-reduction potential, optical backscatter, methane abundance, conductivity, and temperature, for building working models of plume dynamics. We investigated length scales of under 1 km to 5 km with a focus on reoccupying locations over varying time scales. Persistent deep current data were available through the Ocean Networks Canada mooring array. Using these datasets, we investigate two questions: (1) how reliably and at what length scales can real-time current information be used to predict the location and source of a hydrothermal plume? (2) How does the relative age (hence, biogeochemical maturation) of the hydrothermal plume fluid affect the response of different in situ sensors? These results will be used to inform the development of autonomous plume detection algorithms that use real-time, in situ data with the purpose of improving AUV exploration of hydrothermal plumes on Earth and other Ocean Worlds. 

One of the most exciting results from the GEOTRACES program’s zonal and meridional sections has been the recognition that hydrothermally sourced Fe may persist long enough to be upwelled along shoaling isopycnals and act as an essential micronutrient, stimulating primary productivity at high latitudes. In Aug-Sep 2023 our team used a combination of predictive plume dispersion modelling, real-time current meter data from the Ocean Networks Canada observatory, and in situ sensing and sampling from the AUV Sentry to guide biogeochemical sampling of dispersing hydrothermal plumes above the Juan de Fuca Ridge. A key motivation for this study was to investigate what sets the export flux of dissolved Fe and Mn away from ridge-axis venting. We specifically targeted hydrothermal vents in the NE Pacific for this study, at the far end of the thermohaline circulation, to maximize predicted Fe oxidation times within the dispersing plume and, hence, optimize our ability to reveal distinct processes that may contribute to regulating Fe flux as a function of time and distance down-plume. We also targeted an overlooked gap in the length-scale over which hydrothermal processes may regulate export fluxes, between the ≤1km range typical of submersible-based investigations and the ~100km spacing for GEOTRACES Section stations. Over 3 weeks on station we were able to use the Sentry AUV equipped with an in situ oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) sensor, an optical backscatter sensor (OBS) and two methane sensors (METS, SAGE) to track predicted plume dispersion trajectories and guide a telescopically-expanding program of water column sampling for dissolved, soluble, colloidal and particulate species of Fe, Mn and other metals, at <0.1, 0.25, 0.50, 1, 2, 5 and 10km down-plume from the High Rise and Main Endeavour vent-sites. We will present results from Sentry sensor data revealing length scales over which hydrothermal plume signatures attenuated, together with complementary TEI data, all set within the context of our dispersing plume model. Our approach will ultimately allow us to assign both effective distances down-plume from source, for each sample collected, and model dispersion ages. This will provide insights into both the processes active within a dispersing hydrothermal plume and the rates at which those processes occur. 

Statistical inferences for high-dimensional regression models have been extensively studied for their wide applications ranging from genomics, neuroscience, to economics. However, in practice, there are often potential unmeasured confounders associated with both the response and covariates, which can lead to invalidity of standard debiasing methods. This paper focuses on a generalized linear regression framework with hidden confounding and proposes a debiasing approach to address this high-dimensional problem, by adjusting for the effects induced by the unmeasured confounders. We establish consistency and asymp- totic normality for the proposed debiased estimator. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive numerical studies and an application to a genetic data set. 

Deep-sea hydrothermal vents inject dissolved and particulate metals, dissolved gasses, and biological matter into the water column, creating plumes several hundred meters above the seafloor that can be traced thousands of kilometers. To understand the impact of these plumes, rosettes equipped with sample bottles and in situ instruments, e.g., for turbidity, oxidation-reduction potential, and temperature, have been key tools for collecting water column fluid for informative ex situ analysis. However, deploying rosettes strategically in distal (>1km) plume-derived fluids is difficult when plume material is entrained rapidly with background water and transported by complicated bathymetric, internal, and/or tidal currents. This problem is exacerbated when the controlling dynamics are also poorly constrained (e.g., no persistent monitoring, few historical data) and data collected while in the field to estimate or compensate for these dynamics are only available to be analyzed hours or days following an asset deployment. Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) equipped with equivalent in situ instruments to rosettes excel at exploration missions and creating highly-resolved maps at different spatial scales. Utilization of AUVs for hydrothermal plume charting and strategic sampling with rosettes is at a techno-scientific frontier that requires new data transmission and visualization interfaces for supporting real-time evidence-based operational decisions made at sea. We formulated a method for monitoring in situ water properties while an AUV is underway that (1) builds situational awareness of deep fluid mass distributions, (2) allows scientists-in-the-loop to rapidly identify fluid distribution patterns that inform adaptations to AUV missions or deployments of other assets, like rosettes, for targeted sample collection, and (3) supports robust formulation of working hypotheses of plume dynamics for in-field investigation. We will present a description of the method with preliminary results from cruise AT50-15 (Juan de Fuca Ridge, 2023) using AUV Sentry and discuss how supervised autonomy will improve ocean robotics for future science missions. 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) enhanced systems are widely adopted in post-secondary education, however, tools and activities have only recently become accessible for teaching AI and machine learning (ML) concepts to K-12 students. Research on K-12 AI education has largely included student attitudes toward AI careers, AI ethics, and student use of various existing AI agents such as voice assistants; most of which has focused on high school and middle school. There is no consensus on which AI and Machine Learning concepts are grade-appropriate for elementary-aged students or how elementary students explore and make sense of AI and ML tools. AI is a rapidly evolving technology and as future decision-makers, children will need to be AI literate[1]. In this paper, we will present elementary students’ sense-making of simple machine-learning concepts. Through this project, we hope to generate a new model for introducing AI concepts to elementary students into school curricula and provide tangible, trainable representations of ML for students to explore in the physical world. In our first year, our focus has been on simpler machine learning algorithms. Our desire is to empower students to not only use AI tools but also to understand how they operate. We believe that appropriate activities can help late elementary-aged students develop foundational AI knowledge namely (1) how a robot senses the world, and (2) how a robot represents data for making decisions. Educational robotics programs have been repeatedly shown to result in positive learning impacts and increased interest[2]. In this pilot study, we leveraged the LEGO® Education SPIKE™ Prime for introducing ML concepts to upper elementary students. Through pilot testing in three one-week summer programs, we iteratively developed a limited display interface for supervised learning using the nearest neighbor algorithm. We collected videos to perform a qualitative evaluation. Based on analyzing student behavior and the process of students trained in robotics, we found some students show interest in exploring pre-trained ML models and training new models while building personally relevant robotic creations and developing solutions to engineering tasks. While students were interested in using the ML tools for complex tasks, they seemed to prefer to use block programming or manual motor controls where they felt it was practical. 

Team-based learning is commonly used in engineering introductory courses. As students of a team may be from vastly different backgrounds, academically and non-academically, it is important for faculty members to know what aid or hinder team success. The dataset that is used in this paper includes student personality inputs, self-and-peer-assessments of teamwork, and perceptions of teamwork outcomes. Using this information, we developed several bayesian models that are able to predict if a team is working well. We also constructed and estimated Q-matrices which are crucial in explaining the relationship between latent traits and students’ characteristics in cognitive diagnostic models. The prediction and diagnostic models are able to help faculty members and instructors to gain insights into finding ways to separate students into teams more effectively so that students have a positive team-based learning experience.