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  1. The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB andmore »highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. By conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available June 9, 2023
  2. Abstract Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) can funnel stars and stellar remnants from the vicinity of the galactic center into the inner plane of the AGN disk. Stars reaching this inner region can be tidally disrupted by the stellar-mass black holes in the disk. Such micro tidal disruption events (micro-TDEs) could be a useful probe of stellar interaction with the AGN disk. We find that micro-TDEs in AGNs occur at a rate of ∼170 Gpc −3 yr −1 . Their cleanest observational probe may be the electromagnetic detection of tidal disruption in AGNs by heavy supermassive black holes ( M •more »≳ 10 8 M ⊙ ) that cannot tidally disrupt solar-type stars. The reconstructed rate of such events from observations, nonetheless, appears to be much lower than our estimated micro-TDE rate. We discuss two such micro-TDE candidates observed to date (ASASSN-15lh and ZTF19aailpwl).« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 1, 2023
  3. The dissipative mechanism in weakly collisional plasma is a topic that pervades decades of studies without a consensus solution. We compare several energy dissipation estimates based on energy transfer processes in plasma turbulence and provide justification for the pressure–strain interaction as a direct estimate of the energy dissipation rate. The global and scale-by-scale energy balances are examined in 2.5D and 3D kinetic simulations. We show that the global internal energy increase and the temperature enhancement of each species are directly tracked by the pressure–strain interaction. The incompressive part of the pressure–strain interaction dominates over its compressive part in all simulationsmore »considered. The scale-by-scale energy balance is quantified by scale filtered Vlasov–Maxwell equations, a kinetic plasma approach, and the lag dependent von Kármán–Howarth equation, an approach based on fluid models. We find that the energy balance is exactly satisfied across all scales, but the lack of a well-defined inertial range influences the distribution of the energy budget among different terms in the inertial range. Therefore, the widespread use of the Yaglom relation in estimating the dissipation rate is questionable in some cases, especially when the scale separation in the system is not clearly defined. In contrast, the pressure– strain interaction balances exactly the dissipation rate at kinetic scales regardless of the scale separation« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available April 21, 2023
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  9. Stony corals (Scleractinia) are invertebrates that form symbiotic relationships with eukaryotic algal endosymbionts and the prokaryotic microbiome. The microbiome has the potential to produce bioactive natural products providing defense and resilience to the coral host against pathogenic microorganisms, but this potential has not been extensively explored. Bacterial pathogens can pose a significant threat to corals, with some species implicated in primary and opportunistic infections of various corals. In response, probiotics have been proposed as a potential strategy to protect corals in the face of increased incidence of disease outbreaks. In this study, we screened bacterial isolates from healthy and diseasedmore »corals for antibacterial activity. The bioactive extracts were analyzed using untargeted metabolomics. Herein, UpSet plot and hierarchical clustering analyses were performed to identify isolates with the largest number of unique metabolites. These isolates also displayed different antibacterial activities. Through application of in silico and experimental approaches coupled with genome analysis, we dereplicated natural products from these coral-derived bacteria from Florida’s coral reef environments. The metabolomics approach highlighted in this study serves as a useful resource to select probiotic candidates and enables insights into natural product-mediated chemical ecology in holobiont symbiosis.« less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available January 28, 2023
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