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The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, dependingmore »on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. By conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.« less

Abstract We present the results of a model-based search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass X-ray binary Scorpius X-1 using LIGO detector data from the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. This is a semicoherent search that uses details of the signal model to coherently combine data separated by less than a specified coherence time, which can be adjusted to balance sensitivity with computing cost. The search covered a range of gravitational-wave frequencies from 25 to 1600 Hz, as well as ranges in orbital speed, frequency, and phase determined from observational constraints. No significant detection candidates were found, and upper limits were set as a function of frequency. The most stringent limits, between 100 and 200 Hz, correspond to an amplitude h 0 of about 10 −25 when marginalized isotropically over the unknown inclination angle of the neutron star’s rotation axis, or less than 4 × 10 −26 assuming the optimal orientation. The sensitivity of this search is now probing amplitudes predicted by models of torque balance equilibrium. For the usual conservative model assuming accretion at the surface of the neutron star, our isotropically marginalized upper limits are close to the predicted amplitude from about 70more »to 100 Hz; the limits assuming that the neutron star spin is aligned with the most likely orbital angular momentum are below the conservative torque balance predictions from 40 to 200 Hz. Assuming a broader range of accretion models, our direct limits on gravitational-wave amplitude delve into the relevant parameter space over a wide range of frequencies, to 500 Hz or more.« less

A bstract A search is presented for a heavy W′ boson resonance decaying to a B or T vector-like quark and a t or a b quark, respectively. The analysis is performed using proton-proton collisions collected with the CMS detector at the LHC. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb − 1 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Both decay channels result in a signature with a t quark, a Higgs or Z boson, and a b quark, each produced with a significant Lorentz boost. The all-hadronic decays of the Higgs or Z boson and of the t quark are selected using jet substructure techniques to reduce standard model backgrounds, resulting in a distinct three-jet W′ boson decay signature. No significant deviation in data with respect to the standard model background prediction is observed. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on the product of the W′ boson cross section and the final state branching fraction. A W′ boson with a mass below 3.1 TeV is excluded, given the benchmark model assumption of democratic branching fractions. In addition, limits are set based on generalizations of these assumptions. These are the most sensitive limits to datemore »for this final state.« less