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Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) persistently threaten wild waterfowl, domestic poultry, and public health. The East Asian–Australasian Flyway plays a crucial role in HPAIV dynamics due to its large populations of migratory waterfowl and poultry. Over recent decades, this flyway has undergone substantial landscape changes, including both losses and gains of waterfowl habitats. These changes can affect waterfowl distributions, increase contact with poultry, and consequently alter ecological conditions that favor avian influenza virus (AIV) evolution. However, limited research has assessed these likely impacts. Here, we integrated empirical data and an individual-based model to simulate AIV transmission in migratory waterfowl and domestic poultry, including wild-to-poultry spillover and reassortment dynamics in poultry, across landscapes representing the years 2000 and 2015. We used the reassortment incidence as a proxy for ecological and transmission conditions that support viral diversification and the emergence of novel subtypes. Our simulations show that landscape change reshaped the waterfowl distribution, facilitated bird aggregation at improved habitats, increased coinfection, and raised reassortment rate by 1,593%, indicating a substantially higher potential for viral diversification and emergence. Model-generated risk maps show expanded and increased reassortment risk in southeastern China, the Yellow River Basin, and northeastern China. These findings suggest the importance of landscape change as a driver of potential AIV diversification and subtype emergence. This underscores the need for interdisciplinary approaches that integrate landscape dynamics, host movement, and viral evolution to better assess and mitigate future risk. 

ABSTRACT Introduction and AimLong‐term changes in wildlife habitats are fundamental for understanding biodiversity change and the ecological contexts that may shape opportunities for host contact or exposure. Avian influenza virus (AIV), one of the most pressing zoonotic threats, is maintained primarily in wild birds whose habitats are undergoing rapid transformation. Yet no globally consistent, temporally explicit habitat dataset tailored to AIV host species exists, leaving their long‐term habitat dynamics poorly documented. To address this gap, we developed the first global annual habitat maps of AIV host birds from 2000 to 2022. Main Variables IncludedWe developed a habitat classification framework specific to AIV host birds and produced the global annual terrestrial habitat maps by integrating satellite‐derived land cover, climate zones, biome information and topography. The dataset includes 8 Level‐1 and 34 Level‐2 habitat types, achieving overall accuracies of 0.84 (± 0.08) and 0.83 (± 0.12), respectively. Time CoverageThe maps span the years 2000–2022, with annual temporal resolution. Spatial CoverageThe dataset covers global terrestrial surfaces (excluding Antarctica) at a resolution of 300 m. TaxaWild bird species with confirmed AIV detections, with habitat preferences derived from IUCN species‐level associations. ApplicationsThis dataset provides a foundational environmental layer for improving host species distribution models and for examining how environmental change influences habitats used by AIV host birds. It can support downstream ecological and epidemiological analyses within a One Health framework and inform conservation planning and land‐use management. 

Wild waterbirds, and especially wild waterfowl, are considered to be a reservoir for avian influenza viruses, with transmission likely occurring at the agricultural-wildlife interface. In the past few decades, avian influenza has repeatedly emerged in China along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF), where extensive habitat conversion has occurred. Rapid environmental changes in the EAAF, especially distributional changes in rice paddy agriculture, have the potential to affect both the movements of wild migratory birds and the likelihood of spillover at the agricultural-wildlife interface. To begin to understand the potential implications such changes may have on waterfowl and disease transmission risk, we created dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMM) based on waterfowl telemetry data. We used these dBBMM models to create hypothetical scenarios that would predict likely changes in waterfowl distribution relative to recent changes in rice distribution quantified through remote sensing. Our models examined a range of responses in which increased availability of rice paddies would drive increased use by waterfowl and decreased availability would result in decreased use, predicted from empirical data. Results from our scenarios suggested that in southeast China, relatively small decreases in rice agriculture could lead to dramatic loss of stopover habitat, and in northeast China, increases in rice paddies should provide new areas that can be used by waterfowl. Finally, we explored the implications of how such scenarios of changing waterfowl distribution may affect the potential for avian influenza transmission. Our results provide advance understanding of changing disease transmission threats by incorporating real-world data that predicts differences in habitat utilization by migratory birds over time. 

Abstract Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade‐offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision‐making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision‐making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision‐making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white‐nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision‐making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources. 

Abstract Species functional traits can influence pathogen transmission processes, and consequently affect species' host status, pathogen diversity, and community‐level infection risk. We here investigated, for 143 European waterbird species, effects of functional traits on host status and pathogen diversity (subtype richness) for avian influenza virus at species level. We then explored the association between functional diversity and HPAI H5Nx occurrence at the community level for 2016/17 and 2021/22 epidemics in Europe. We found that both host status and subtype richness were shaped by several traits, such as diet guild and dispersal ability, and that the community‐weighted means of these traits were also correlated with community‐level risk of H5Nx occurrence. Moreover, functional divergence was negatively associated with H5Nx occurrence, indicating that functional diversity can reduce infection risk. Our findings highlight the value of integrating trait‐based ecology into the framework of diversity–disease relationship, and provide new insights for HPAI prediction and prevention. 

Abstract Expansion of impervious surface area (ISA) in urbanizing regions often leads to vegetation area losses, a direct impact of urbanization. Many activities driven by economic growth, population increases, targeted urban greening investments, environmental policies, and major sports events change vegetation composition, structure, and function, leading to substantial indirect (positive or negative) impacts on vegetation in urban area. In this study, we analyzed the spatial‐temporal dynamics of ISA, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and gross primary production (GPP) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China, over 2000–2020. Positive indirect impacts of urbanization on EVI and GPP surged after 2011, coinciding with China's Ecological Civilization Strategy. The concurrent increases of ISA, EVI, and GPP in the YRD provide an example for our society to work and advance the UN's Sustainable Development Goal #11, “Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable.”