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The late Paleocene and early Eocene (LPEE) are characterized by long-term (million years, Myr) global warming and by transient, abrupt (kiloyears, kyr) warming events, termed hyperthermals. Although both have been attributed to greenhouse (CO₂) forcing, the longer-term trend in climate was likely influenced by additional forcing factors (i.e., tectonics) and the extent to which warming was driven by atmospheric CO₂remains unclear. Here, we use a suite of new and existing observations from planktic foraminifera collected at Pacific Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1209 and 1210 and inversion of a multiproxy Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric CO₂over a 6-Myr interval. Our reconstructions span the initiation of long-term LPEE warming (~58 Ma), and the two largest Paleogene hyperthermals, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2, ~54 Ma). Our results show strong coupling between CO₂and temperature over the long- (LPEE) and short-term (PETM and ETM-2) but differing Pacific climate sensitivities over the two timescales. Combined CO₂and carbon isotope trends imply the carbon source driving CO₂increase was likely methanogenic, organic, or mixed for the PETM and organic for ETM-2, whereas a source with higher δ¹³C values (e.g., volcanic degassing) is associated with the long-term LPEE. Reconstructed emissions for the PETM (5,800 Gt C) and ETM-2 (3,800 Gt C) are comparable in mass to future emission scenarios, reinforcing the value of these events as analogs of anthropogenic change.

Abstract. The effects of anthropogenic warming on the hydroclimate of California are becoming more pronounced, with increased frequency of multi-year droughts and flooding. As a past analog for the future, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a unique natural experiment for assessing global and regional hydroclimate sensitivity to greenhouse gas warming. Globally, extensive evidence (i.e., observations, climate models with high pCO2) demonstrates hydrological intensification with significant variability from region to region (i.e., dryer or wetter, or greater frequency and/or intensity of extreme events). Central California (paleolatitude ~42° N), roughly at the boundary between dry subtropical highs and mid-latitude low pressure systems, would have been particularly susceptible to shifts in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns/intensity. Here, we present new observations and climate model output on regional/local hydroclimate responses in central California during PETM. Our findings based on multi-proxy evidence within the context of model output suggest a transition to an overall drier climate punctuated by increased precipitation during summer months along the central coastal California during the PETM.

The Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is the most pronounced global warming event of the early Paleogene related to atmospheric CO₂increases. It is characterized by negative δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C excursions recorded in sedimentary archives and a transient disruption of the marine biosphere. Sites from the U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain show an additional small, but distinct δ¹³C excursion below the onset of the PETM, coined the “pre‐onset excursion” (POE), mimicking the PETM‐forced environmental perturbations. This study focuses on the South Dover Bridge core in Maryland, where the Paleocene‐Eocene transition is stratigraphically constrained by calcareous nannoplankton and stable isotope data, and in which the POE is well‐expressed. The site was situated in a middle neritic marine shelf setting near a major outflow of the paleo‐Potomac River system. We generated high‐resolution benthic foraminiferal assemblage, stable isotope, trace‐metal, grain‐size and clay mineralogy data. The resulting stratigraphic subdivision of this Paleocene‐Eocene transition is placed within a depth transect across the paleoshelf, highlighting that the PETM sequence is relatively expanded. The geochemical records provide detailed insights into the paleoenvironment, developing from a well‐oxygenated water column in latest Paleocene to a PETM‐ecosystem under severe biotic stress‐conditions, with shifts in food supply and temperature, and under dysoxic bottom waters in a more river‐dominated setting. Environmental changes started in the latest Paleocene and culminated atthe onset of the PETM, hinting to an intensifying trigger rather than to an instantaneous event at the Paleocene‐Eocene boundary toppling the global system.

The geological record encodes the relationship between climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) over long and short timescales, as well as potential drivers of evolutionary transitions. However, reconstructing CO₂beyond direct measurements requires the use of paleoproxies and herein lies the challenge, as proxies differ in their assumptions, degree of understanding, and even reconstructed values. In this study, we critically evaluated, categorized, and integrated available proxies to create a high-fidelity and transparently constructed atmospheric CO₂record spanning the past 66 million years. This newly constructed record provides clearer evidence for higher Earth system sensitivity in the past and for the role of CO₂thresholds in biological and cryosphere evolution.

Cyclostratigraphy and astrochronology are now at the forefront of geologic timekeeping. While this technique heavily relies on the accuracy of astronomical calculations, solar system chaos limits how far back astronomical calculations can be performed with confidence. High‐resolution paleoclimate records with Milankovitch imprints now allow reversing the traditional cyclostratigraphic approach: Middle Eocene drift sediments from Newfoundland Ridge are well‐suited for this purpose, due to high sedimentation rates and distinct lithological cycles. Per contra, the stratigraphies of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Sites U1408–U1410 are highly complex with several hiatuses. Here, we built a two‐site composite and constructed a conservative age‐depth model to provide a reliable chronology for this rhythmic, highly resolved (<1 kyr) sedimentary archive. Astronomical components (g‐terms and precession constant) are extracted from proxy time‐series using two different techniques, producing consistent results. We find astronomical frequencies up to 4% lower than reported in astronomical solution La04. This solution, however, was smoothed over 20‐Myr intervals, and our results therefore provide constraints on g‐term variability on shorter, million‐year timescales. We also report first evidence that theg₄–g₃“grand eccentricity cycle” may have had a 1.2‐Myr period around 41 Ma, contrary to its 2.4‐Myr periodicity today. Our median precession constant estimate (51.28 ± 0.56″/year) confirms earlier indicators of a relatively low rate of tidal dissipation in the Paleogene. Newfoundland Ridge drift sediments thus enable a reliable reconstruction of astronomical components at the limit of validity of current astronomical calculations, extracted from geologic data, providing a new target for the next generation of astronomical calculations.