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Green initiatives are popular mechanisms globally to enhance environmental and human wellbeing. However, multiple green initiatives, when overlapping geographically and targeting the same participants, may interact with each other, giving rise to what is termed “spillover effects”, where one initiative and its outcomes influence another. This study examines the spillover effects among four major concurrent initiatives in the United States (U.S.) and China using a comprehensive dataset. In the U.S., we analysed county-level data in 2018 for the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), both operational for over 25 years. In China, data from Fanjingshan and Tianma National Nature Reserves (2014–2015) were used to evaluate the Grain-to-Green Program (GTGP) and the Forest Ecological Benefit Compensation (FEBC) program. The dataset comprises 3106 records for the U.S. and 711 plots for China, including several socio-economic variables. The results of multivariate linear regression indicate that there exist significant spillover effects between CRP & EQIP and GTGP & FEBC, with one initiative potentially enhancing or offsetting another’s impacts by 22% to 100%. This dataset provides valuable insights for researchers and policymakers to optimize the effectiveness and resilience of concurrent green initiatives.

 

A significant number and range of challenges besetting sustainability can be traced to the actions and interactions of multiple autonomous agents (people mostly) and the entities they create (e.g., institutions, policies, social network) in the corresponding social-environmental systems (SES). To address these challenges, we need to understand decisions made and actions taken by agents, the outcomes of their actions, including the feedbacks on the corresponding agents and environment. The science of complex adaptive systems—CAS science—has a significant potential to handle such challenges. We address the advantages of CAS science for sustainability by identifying the key elements and challenges in sustainability science, the generic features of CAS, and the key advances and challenges in modeling CAS. Artificial intelligence and data science combined with agent-based modeling promise to improve understanding of agents’ behaviors, detect SES structures, and formulate SES mechanisms. 

Conservation efforts under the nature-based solutions (NbS) framework aim at better management of ecosystems and improvement of human well-being. Policies targeting forest-based livelihoods align well with the NbS principles, but their social-ecological outcomes are often confounded by complex human-environment interactions. In this study, we identify one major feedback effect of the ecosystem dynamic on people’s livelihoods based on datasets collected from two study areas in China and Nepal. Our methodology integrates satellite remote sensing, household surveys, and statistical models to investigate households’ cropland abandonment decisions under the influence of crop-raiding by wildlife. Results show that cropland parcels that have experienced crop-raiding are more likely to be abandoned in the following years. The more damage the crops have suffered on a given parcel, the more likely it is that the parcel will be abandoned. Parcels in proximity to natural forests, farther away from the house location, and with poorer access to paved roads bear a higher risk of being abandoned. These effects are robust and consistent after controlling for multiple parcel features and household characteristics at different levels and using the dataset from each study area separately. We conclude that policymakers need to consider this undesirable feedback of the ecological system to the livelihoods of local people to better achieve co-benefits for ecosystems and human society.

 

Cyanobacterial blooms pose environmental and health risks due to their production of toxic secondary metabolites. While current methods for assessing these risks have focused primarily on bloom frequency and intensity, the lack of comprehensive and comparable data on cyanotoxins makes it challenging to rigorously evaluate these health risks. In this study, we examined 750 metagenomic data sets collected from 103 lakes worldwide. Our analysis unveiled the diverse distributions of cyanobacterial communities and the genes responsible for cyanotoxin production across the globe. Our approach involved the integration of cyanobacterial biomass, the biosynthetic potential of cyanotoxin, and the potential effects of these toxins to establish potential cyanobacterial health risks. Our findings revealed that nearly half of the lakes assessed posed medium to high health risks associated with cyanobacteria. The regions of greatest concern were East Asia and South Asia, particularly in developing countries experiencing rapid industrialization and urbanization. Using machine learning techniques, we mapped potential cyanobacterial health risks in lakes worldwide. The model results revealed a positive correlation between potential cyanobacterial health risks and factors such as temperature, N₂O emissions, and the human influence index. These findings underscore the influence of these variables on the proliferation of cyanobacterial blooms and associated risks. By introducing a novel quantitative method for monitoring potential cyanobacterial health risks on a global scale, our study contributes to the assessment and management of one of the most pressing threats to both aquatic ecosystems and human health.

Our research introduces a novel and comprehensive approach to potential cyanobacterial health risk assessment, offering insights into risk from a toxicity perspective. The distinct geographical variations in cyanobacterial communities coupled with the intricate interplay of environmental factors underscore the complexity of managing cyanobacterial blooms at a global scale. Our systematic and targeted cyanobacterial surveillance enables a worldwide assessment of cyanobacteria-based potential health risks, providing an early warning system.

 

Flowcharts are graphical tools for representing complex concepts in concise visual representations. This paper introduces the FlowLearn dataset, a resource tailored to enhance the understanding of flowcharts. FlowLearn contains complex scientific flowcharts and simulated flowcharts. The scientific subset contains 3,858 flowcharts sourced from scientific literature and the simulated subset contains 10,000 flowcharts created using a customizable script. The dataset is enriched with annotations for visual components, OCR, Mermaid code representation, and VQA question-answer pairs. Despite the proven capabilities of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) in various visual understanding tasks, their effectiveness in decoding flowcharts—a crucial element of scientific communication—has yet to be thoroughly investigated. The FlowLearn test set is crafted to assess the performance of LVLMs in flowchart comprehension. Our study thoroughly evaluates state-of-the-art LVLMs, identifying existing limitations and establishing a foundation for future enhancements in this relatively underexplored domain. For instance, in tasks involving simulated flowcharts, GPT-4V achieved the highest accuracy (58\%) in counting the number of nodes, while Claude recorded the highest accuracy (83\%) in OCR tasks. Notably, no single model excels in all tasks within the FlowLearn framework, highlighting significant opportunities for further development. 

This study primarily aims to develop a robust modelling approach to capture complex material behavior of CP-Ti, appeared by high anisotropy, differential hardening due to anisotropy evolution, and flow behavior sensitive to strain rate and temperature, using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Plasticity is characterized by uniaxial tension and in-plane biaxial tension tests at temperatures of 0°C and 20°C with strain rates of 0.001 /s and 0.01 /s, and the results are used to calibrate the non-quadratic anisotropic Yld2000-3d yield function with respect to the plastic work. In order to predict the intricate plastic deformation with the temperature and strain rate effects, two distinct ANN models are developed; one is to capture the strain hardening behavior and the other to predict the anisotropic parameters in the chosen yield function. The developed ANN models predict an unseen dataset well, which is intermediate testing conditions at a temperature of 10°C and strain rate of 0.005 /s. The ANN models, being computationally stable and adhering to conventional constitutive equations, are implemented into a user material subroutine for the ductile fracture characterization of CP-Ti sheet using the hybrid experimental-numerical analysis. The favorable agreement between experimental data and numerical predictions, particularly using the ANN models with evolving anisotropic material parameters for the Yld2000-3d yield function, underscores the significance of differential hardening effect on the ductile fracture behavior and highlights the capabilities of ANN models to capture the complex plastic behavior of CP-Ti. The key parameters including stress triaxiality, Lode angle parameter, and equivalent plastic strain at the fracture location are extracted from the simulations, enabling the calibration of ductile fracture models, namely Johnson-Cook, Hosford-Coulomb, and Lou-2014, and construction of fracture envelopes.