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Abstract This study investigates skill enhancement in operational seasonal forecasts of Beijing Climate Center’s Climate System Model through regional Climate–Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) downscaling and improved land initialization in China. The downscaling mitigates regional climate biases, enhancing precipitation pattern correlations by 0.29 in spring and 0.21 in summer. It also strengthens predictive capabilities for interannual anomalies, expanding skillful temperature forecast areas by 6% in spring and 12% in summer. Remarkably, during 7 of 10 years with relatively high predictability, the downscaling increases average seasonal precipitation anomaly correlations by 0.22 and 0.25. Additionally, the substitution of initial land conditions via a Common Land Model integration reduces snow cover and cold biases across the Tibetan Plateau and Mongolia–northeast China, consistently contributing to CWRF’s overall enhanced forecasting capabilities. Improved downscaling predictive skill is attributed to CWRF’s enhanced physics representation, accurately capturing intricate regional interactions and associated teleconnections across China, especially linked to the Tibetan Plateau’s blocking and thermal effects. In summer, CWRF predicts an intensified South Asian high alongside a strengthened East Asian jet compared to CSM, amplifying cold air advection and warm moisture transport over central to northeast regions. Consequently, rainfall distributions and interannual anomalies over these areas experience substantial improvements. Similar enhanced circulation processes elucidate skill improvement from land initialization, where the accurate specification of initial snow cover and soil temperature within sensitive regions persists in influencing local and remote circulations extending beyond two seasons. Our findings emphasize the potential of improving physics representation and surface initialization to markedly enhance regional climate predictions.more » « less
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Measurements are presented of the cross-section for the central exclusive production ofJ/\psi\to\mu^+\mu^- and\psi(2S)\to\mu^+\mu^- processes in proton-proton collisions at\sqrt{s} = 13 \ \mathrm{TeV} with 2016–2018 data. They are performed by requiring both muons to be in the LHCb acceptance (with pseudorapidity2<\eta_{\mu^±} < 4.5 ) and mesons in the rapidity range2.0 < y < 4.5 . The integrated cross-section results are\sigma_{J/\psi\to\mu^+\mu^-}(2.0 where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic and due to the luminosity determination. In addition, a measurement of the ratio of\psi(2S) andJ/\psi cross-sections, at an average photon-proton centre-of-mass energy of1\ \mathrm{TeV} , is performed, giving$ = 0.1763 ± 0.0029 ± 0.0008 ± 0.0039,$$ where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second systematic and the third due to the knowledge of the involved branching fractions. For the first time, the dependence of theJ/\psi$ and\psi(2S) cross-sections on the total transverse momentum transfer is determined inpp collisions and is found consistent with the behaviour observed in electron-proton collisions.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2026
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