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Drought is one of the most destructive and expensive natural disasters, severely impacting natural resources and risks by depleting water resources and diminishing agricultural yields. Under climate change, accurately predicting drought is critical for mitigating drought-induced risks. However, the intricate interplay among the physical and biological drivers that regulate droughts limits the predictability and understanding of drought, particularly at a subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scale. While deep learning has demonstrated the potential to address climate forecasting challenges, its application to drought prediction has received relatively less attention. In this work, we propose a new dataset, DroughtSet, which integrates relevant predictive features and three drought indices from multiple remote sensing and reanalysis datasets across the contiguous United States (CONUS). DroughtSet specifically provides the machine learning community with a new real-world dataset to benchmark drought prediction models and more generally, time-series forecasting methods. Furthermore, we propose a spatial-temporal model SPDrought to predict and interpret S2S droughts. Our model learns from the spatial and temporal information of physical and biological features to predict three types of droughts simultaneously. Multiple strategies are employed to quantify the importance of physical and biological features for drought prediction. Our results provide insights for researchers to better understand the predictability and sensitivity of drought to biological and physical conditions. We aim to contribute to the climate field by proposing a new tool to predict and understand the occurrence of droughts and provide the AI community with a new benchmark to study deep learning applications in climate science. 

Abstract Nutrient exchange forms the basis of the ancient symbiotic relationship that occurs between most land plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. Plants provide carbon (C) to AM fungi and fungi provide the plant with nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P). Nutrient addition can alter this symbiotic coupling in key ways, such as reducing AM fungal root colonization and changing the AM fungal community composition. However, environmental parameters that differentiate ecosystems and drive plant distribution patterns (e.g., pH, moisture), are also known to impact AM fungal communities. Identifying the relative contribution of environmental factors impacting AM fungal distribution patterns is important for predicting biogeochemical cycling patterns and plant‐microbe relationships across ecosystems. To evaluate the relative impacts of local environmental conditions and long‐term nutrient addition on AM fungal abundance and composition across grasslands, we studied experimental plots amended for 10 years with N, P, or N and P fertilizer in different grassland ecosystem types, including tallgrass prairie, montane, shortgrass prairie, and desert grasslands. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found ecosystem type, not nutrient treatment, was the main driver of AM fungal root colonization, diversity, and community composition, even when accounting for site‐specific nutrient limitations. We identified several important environmental drivers of grassland ecosystem AM fungal distribution patterns, including aridity, mean annual temperature, root moisture, and soil pH. This work provides empirical evidence for niche partitioning strategies of AM fungal functional guilds and emphasizes the importance of long‐term, large scale research projects to provide ecologically relevant context to nutrient addition studies.