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  1. null (Ed.)
    Small pelagic fish support some of the largest fisheries globally, yet there is an ongoing debate about the magnitude of the impacts of environmental processes and fishing activities on target species. We use a nonparametric, nonlinear approach to quantify these effects on the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the Gulf of California. We show that the effect of fishing pressure and environmental variability are comparable. Furthermore, when predicting total catches, the best models account for both drivers. By using empirical dynamic programming with average environmental conditions, we calculated optimal policies to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries. The first policy, the equilibrium maximum sustainable yield, suggests that the fishery could sustain an annual catch of ∼2.16 × 10 5 tonnes. The second policy with dynamic optimal effort, reveals that the effort from 2 to 4 years ago impacts the current maximum sustainable effort. Consecutive years of high effort require a reduction to let the stock recover. Our work highlights a new framework that embraces the complex processes that drive fisheries population dynamics yet produces simple and robust advice to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries. 
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  2. null (Ed.)
    Marine area-based conservation measures including no-take zones (areas with no fishing allowed) are often designed through lengthy processes that aim to optimize for ecological and social objectives. Their (semi) permanence generates high stakes in what seems like a one-shot game. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically explore a model of short-term area-based conservation that prioritizes adaptive co-management: temporary areas closed to fishing, designed by the fishers they affect, approved by the government, and adapted every 5 years. In this model, no-take zones are adapted through learning and trust-building between fishers and government fisheries scientists. We use integrated social-ecological theory and a case study of a network of such fisheries closures (“fishing refugia”) in northwest Mexico to hypothesize a feedback loop between trust, design, and ecological outcomes. We argue that, with temporary and adaptive area-based management, social and ecological outcomes can be mutually reinforcing as long as initial designs are ecologically “good enough” and supported in the social-ecological context. This type of adaptive management also has the potential to adapt to climate change and other social-ecological changes. This feedback loop also predicts the dangerous possibility that low trust among stakeholders may lead to poor design, lack of ecological benefits, eroding confidence in the tool’s capacity, shrinking size, and even lower likelihood of social-ecological benefits. In our case, however, this did not occur, despite poor ecological design of some areas, likely due to buffering by social network effects and alternative benefits. We discuss both the potential and the danger of temporary area-based conservation measures as a learning tool for adaptive co-management and commoning. 
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  3. null (Ed.)
    Abstract The systematic substitution of direct observational data with synthesized data derived from models during the stock assessment process has emerged as a low-cost alternative to direct data collection efforts. What is not widely appreciated, however, is how the use of such synthesized data can overestimate predictive skill when forecasting recruitment is part of the assessment process. Using a global database of stock assessments, we show that Standard Fisheries Models (SFMs) can successfully predict synthesized data based on presumed stock-recruitment relationships, however, they are generally less skillful at predicting observational data that are either raw or minimally filtered (denoised without using explicit stock-recruitment models). Additionally, we find that an equation-free approach that does not presume a specific stock-recruitment relationship is better than SFMs at predicting synthesized data, and moreover it can also predict observational recruitment data very well. Thus, while synthesized datasets are cheaper in the short term, they carry costs that can limit their utility in predicting real world recruitment. 
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  4. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a key tool for achieving goals for biodiversity conservation and human well-being, including improving climate resilience and equitable access to nature. At a national level, they are central components in the U.S. commitment to conserve at least 30% of U.S. waters by 2030. By definition, the primary goal of an MPA is the long-term conservation of nature; however, not all MPAs provide the same ecological and social benefits. A U.S. system of MPAs that is equitable, well-managed, representative and connected, and includes areas at a level of protection that can deliver desired outcomes is best positioned to support national goals. We used a new MPA framework, The MPA Guide, to assess the level of protection and stage of establishment of the 50 largest U.S. MPAs, which make up 99.7% of the total U.S. MPA area (3.19 million km2). Over 96% of this area, including 99% of that which is fully or highly protected against extractive or destructive human activities, is in the central Pacific ocean. Total MPA area in other regions is sparse – only 1.9% of the U.S. ocean excluding the central Pacific is protected in any kind of MPA (120,976 km2). Over three quarters of the non-central Pacific MPA area is lightly or minimally protected against extractive or destructive human activities. These results highlight an urgent need to improve the quality, quantity, and representativeness of MPA protection in U.S. waters to bring benefits to human and marine communities. We identify and review the state of the science, including focal areas for achieving desired MPA outcomes and lessons learned from places where sound ecological and social design principles come together in MPAs that are set up to achieve national goals for equity, climate resilience, and biodiversity conservation. We recommend key opportunities for action specific to the U.S. context, including increasing funding, research, equity, and protection level for new and existing U.S. MPAs.

     
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  5. Abstract

    Estimating the long‐term sedimentary carbon sinks of mangroves and other blue carbon ecosystems has rapidly become a focus of coastal research and conservation attention. Sampling coverage, however, remains low, with sediment cores sparsely distributed across a subset of mangrove environmental settings globally. Furthermore, the ecological and geological drivers of variation in these stocks remain incompletely understood. We assessed the limits of mangrove sedimentary carbon storage by sampling sediments in diverse mangrove environments across four geographic areas: the volcanic Galapagos, the arid Baja Peninsula, and the geologically and climatically distinct Caribbean and Pacific coasts of Panama. At 80 sites across these areas, we quantified the organic carbon density, sampled with depth, of entire sediment columns. Depth‐integrated carbon stocks are highly variable, from <17 to >1700 MgCorg ha−1. The positive relationship between sediment carbon density and annual rainfall demonstrated in global studies was not observed across these areas, though some carbon density differences were evident. Variation in sediment depth, ranging from 7 to 427 cm across sites, largely explained variation in carbon stock across the areas studied. These results underscore the importance of using measurements of sediment depth to estimate carbon stock. Long‐term geomorphological processes, such as the build‐up of sediment deposits shaped by coastal dynamics, play a major role in shaping mangrove carbon stocks. Investigating and accounting for these processes will enable more accurate estimation of this variable and valuable carbon pool.

     
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  6. As a society, we are confronted with the question of how best to feed an expanding human population, and some have pointed to seafood as a “climate‐friendly” option. To date, the contributions of small‐scale fisheries (SSFs) have been largely excluded from studies on food footprint. Here, we calculated the Emission Intensity profiles for seven seafood types generated by Mexican SSFs. Based on these results—which indicate that there exist several low‐carbon SSFs in Northwestern Mexico—we provide a coarse approximation for the total carbon footprint of Mexico’s motorized small‐scale fleet. Finally, we scrutinize the utility of non‐fuel data (such as GPS data) in predicting fuel consumption/carbon emissions across SSFs. To our knowledge, this is the first life‐cycle assessment to compare multiple seafood products generated by Mexican SSFs, and the first published link between tracking data and carbon accounting for SSFs specifically. We discuss how these results, in combination with insights gained from monitoring efforts in Northwestern Mexico, might be used to inform and incentivize “climate‐friendly” fisheries management. While carbon footprint represents just one component of sustainability, this article serves as a helpful case study for those preoccupied with carbon accounting and fishers sustainability in traditionally data‐limited scenarios.

     
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  7. Abstract

    Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) is a common target for fisheries aiming to achieve long‐term ecological sustainability. Although achievingMSYmay ensure the long‐term sustainability of fish populations, we ask whether it will provide economic security for fishers. Here we use 16 years of daily landing records to estimate potential catches and revenues per capita if fisheries were exploited atMSYin 11 subregions across Mexico. We then compare fishers’ estimated revenues per capita against national poverty limits at the household level. Our results show that even ifMSYis reached in artisanal fisheries, the overcapacity of fleets and the dissipation of rents threatens the economic well‐being of fishers and their families, pushing revenues per capita below poverty levels. Our work demonstrates the importance of resolving the trade‐offs between achieving economic, social and environmental objectives when managing for the long‐term sustainable use of natural resources.

     
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