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Identifying persuasive speakers in an adversarial environment is a critical task. In a national election, politicians would like to have persuasive speakers campaign on their behalf. When a company faces adverse publicity, they would like to engage persuasive advocates for their position in the presence of adversaries who are critical of them. Debates represent a common platform for these forms of adversarial persuasion. This paper solves two problems: the Debate Outcome Prediction (DOP) problem predicts who wins a debate while the Intensity of Persuasion Prediction (IPP) problem predicts the change in the number of votes before and after a speaker speaks. Though DOP has been previously studied, we are the first to study IPP. Past studies on DOP fail to leverage two important aspects of multimodal data: 1) multiple modalities are often semantically aligned, and 2) different modalities may provide diverse information for prediction. Our M2P2 (Multimodal Persuasion Prediction) framework is the first to use multimodal (acoustic, visual, language) data to solve the IPP problem. To leverage the alignment of different modalities while maintaining the diversity of the cues they provide, M2P2 devises a novel adaptive fusion learning framework which fuses embeddings obtained from two modules -- an alignment module that extracts shared information between modalities and a heterogeneity module that learns the weights of different modalities with guidance from three separately trained unimodal reference models. We test M2P2 on the popular IQ2US dataset designed for DOP. We also introduce a new dataset called QPS (from Qipashuo, a popular Chinese debate TV show) for IPP - we plan to release this dataset when the paper is published. M2P2 significantly outperforms 3 recent baselines on both datasets. 

Dynamic social interaction networks are an important abstraction to model time-stamped social interactions such as eye contact, speaking and listening between people. These networks typically contain informative while subtle patterns that reflect people’s social characters and relationship, and therefore attract the attentions of a lot of social scientists and computer scientists. Previous approaches on extracting those patterns primarily rely on sophisticated expert knowledge of psychology and social science, and the obtained features are often overly task-specific. More generic models based on representation learning of dynamic networks may be applied, but the unique properties of social interactions cause severe model mismatch and degenerate the quality of the obtained representations. Here we fill this gap by proposing a novel framework, termed TEmporal network-DIffusion Convolutional networks (TEDIC), for generic representation learning on dynamic social interaction networks. We make TEDIC a good fit by designing two components: 1) Adopt diffusion of node attributes over a combination of the original network and its complement to capture long-hop interactive patterns embedded in the behaviors of people making or avoiding contact; 2) Leverage temporal convolution networks with hierarchical set-pooling operation to flexibly extract patterns from different-length interactions scattered over a long time span. The design also endows TEDIC with certain self-explaining power. We evaluate TEDIC over five real datasets for four different social character prediction tasks including deception detection, dominance identification, nervousness detection and community detection. TEDIC not only consistently outperforms previous SOTA’s, but also provides two important pieces of social insight. In addition, it exhibits favorable societal characteristics by remaining unbiased to people from different regions. Our project website is: http://snap.stanford.edu/tedic/.