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In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to model selection that explicitly balances parameter bias against model complexity. Our method uses synthetic data to calibrate the relation between bias and the χ2 difference between models. This allows us to interpret χ2 values obtained from real data (even if catalogues are blinded) and choose a model accordingly. We apply our method to the problem of intrinsic alignments – one of the most significant weak lensing systematics, and a major contributor to the error budget in modern lensing surveys. Specifically, we consider the example of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), and compare the commonly used non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment and tidal torque (TATT) models. The models are calibrated against bias in the Ωm–S8 plane. Once noise is accounted for, we find that it is possible to set a threshold Δχ2 that guarantees an analysis using NLA is unbiased at some specified level Nσ and confidence level. By contrast, we find that theoretically defined thresholds (based on, e.g. p-values for χ2) tend to be overly optimistic, and do not reliably rule out cosmological biases up to ∼1–2σ. Considering the real DES Y3 cosmic shear results, based on the reported difference in χ2 from NLA and TATT analyses, we find a roughly $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance that were NLA to be the fiducial model, the results would be biased (in the Ωm–S8 plane) by more than 0.3σ. More broadly, the method we propose here is simple and general, and requires a relatively low level of resources. We foresee applications to future analyses as a model selection tool in many contexts.

 

Widefield surveys probe clustered scalar fields – such as galaxy counts, lensing potential, etc. – which are sensitive to different cosmological and astrophysical processes. Constraining such processes depends on the statistics that summarize the field. We explore the cumulative distribution function (CDF) as a summary of the galaxy lensing convergence field. Using a suite of N-body light-cone simulations, we show the CDFs’ constraining power is modestly better than the second and third moments, as CDFs approximately capture information from all moments. We study the practical aspects of applying CDFs to data, using the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) data as an example, and compute the impact of different systematics on the CDFs. The contributions from the point spread function and reduced shear approximation are $\lesssim 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the total signal. Source clustering effects and baryon imprints contribute 1–10 per cent. Enforcing scale cuts to limit systematics-driven biases in parameter constraints degrade these constraints a noticeable amount, and this degradation is similar for the CDFs and the moments. We detect correlations between the observed convergence field and the shape noise field at 13σ. The non-Gaussian correlations in the noise field must be modelled accurately to use the CDFs, or other statistics sensitive to all moments, as a rigorous cosmology tool.

 

We present an alternative calibration of the MagLim lens sample redshift distributions from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first 3 yr of data (Y3). The new calibration is based on a combination of a self-organizing-map-based scheme and clustering redshifts to estimate redshift distributions and inherent uncertainties, which is expected to be more accurate than the original DES Y3 redshift calibration of the lens sample. We describe in detail the methodology, and validate it on simulations and discuss the main effects dominating our error budget. The new calibration is in fair agreement with the fiducial DES Y3 n(z) calibration, with only mild differences (<3σ) in the means and widths of the distributions. We study the impact of this new calibration on cosmological constraints, analysing DES Y3 galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements, assuming a Lambda cold dark matter cosmology. We obtain Ωm = 0.30 ± 0.04, σ8 = 0.81 ± 0.07, and S8 = 0.81 ± 0.04, which implies a ∼0.4σ shift in the Ω − S8 plane compared to the fiducial DES Y3 results, highlighting the importance of the redshift calibration of the lens sample in multiprobe cosmological analyses.

 

The fiducial cosmological analyses of imaging surveys like DES typically probe the Universe at redshifts z < 1. We present the selection and characterization of high-redshift galaxy samples using DES Year 3 data, and the analysis of their galaxy clustering measurements. In particular, we use galaxies that are fainter than those used in the previous DES Year 3 analyses and a Bayesian redshift scheme to define three tomographic bins with mean redshifts around z ∼ 0.9, 1.2, and 1.5, which extend the redshift coverage of the fiducial DES Year 3 analysis. These samples contain a total of about 9 million galaxies, and their galaxy density is more than 2 times higher than those in the DES Year 3 fiducial case. We characterize the redshift uncertainties of the samples, including the usage of various spectroscopic and high-quality redshift samples, and we develop a machine-learning method to correct for correlations between galaxy density and survey observing conditions. The analysis of galaxy clustering measurements, with a total signal to noise S/N ∼ 70 after scale cuts, yields robust cosmological constraints on a combination of the fraction of matter in the Universe Ωm and the Hubble parameter h, $\Omega _m h = 0.195^{+0.023}_{-0.018}$, and 2–3  per cent measurements of the amplitude of the galaxy clustering signals, probing galaxy bias and the amplitude of matter fluctuations, bσ8. A companion paper (in preparation) will present the cross-correlations of these high-z samples with cosmic microwave background lensing from Planck and South Pole Telescope, and the cosmological analysis of those measurements in combination with the galaxy clustering presented in this work.

 

We present direct constraints on galaxy intrinsic alignments (IAs) using the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), and its precursor, the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Our measurements incorporate photometric red sequence (redMaGiC) galaxies from DES with median redshift z ∼ 0.2–1.0, luminous red galaxies from eBOSS at z ∼ 0.8, and also an SDSS-III BOSS CMASS sample at z ∼ 0.5. We measure two-point IA correlations, which we fit using a model that includes lensing, magnification, and photometric redshift error. Fitting on scales 6 Mpc h−1 < rp < 70 Mpc h−1, we make a detection of IAs in each sample, at 5σ–22σ (assuming a simple one-parameter model for IAs). Using these red samples, we measure the IA–luminosity relation. Our results are statistically consistent with previous results, but offer a significant improvement in constraining power, particularly at low luminosity. With this improved precision, we see detectable dependence on colour between broadly defined red samples. It is likely that a more sophisticated approach than a binary red/blue split, which jointly considers colour and luminosity dependence in the IA signal, will be needed in future. We also compare the various signal components at the best-fitting point in parameter space for each sample, and find that magnification and lensing contribute $\sim 2\!-\!18~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the total signal. As precision continues to improve, it will certainly be necessary to account for these effects in future direct IA measurements. Finally, we make equivalent measurements on a sample of emission-line galaxies from eBOSS at z ∼ 0.8. We constrain the non-linear alignment amplitude to be $A_1=0.07^{+0.32}_{-0.42}$ (|A1| < 0.78 at 95 per cent CL).

 

We study the effect of magnification in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 analysis of galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing, using two different lens samples: a sample of luminous red galaxies, redMaGiC, and a sample with a redshift-dependent magnitude limit, MagLim. We account for the effect of magnification on both the flux and size selection of galaxies, accounting for systematic effects using the Balrog image simulations. We estimate the impact of magnification on the galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing cosmology analysis, finding it to be a significant systematic for the MagLim sample. We show cosmological constraints from the galaxy clustering autocorrelation and galaxy–galaxy lensing signal with different magnifications priors, finding broad consistency in cosmological parameters in ΛCDM and wCDM. However, when magnification bias amplitude is allowed to be free, we find the two-point correlation functions prefer a different amplitude to the fiducial input derived from the image simulations. We validate the magnification analysis by comparing the cross-clustering between lens bins with the prediction from the baseline analysis, which uses only the autocorrelation of the lens bins, indicating that systematics other than magnification may be the cause of the discrepancy. We show that adding the cross-clustering between lens redshift bins to the fit significantly improves the constraints on lens magnification parameters and allows uninformative priors to be used on magnification coefficients, without any loss of constraining power or prior volume concerns.

 

We present a method for mapping variations between probability distribution functions and apply this method within the context of measuring galaxy redshift distributions from imaging survey data. This method, which we name PITPZ for the probability integral transformations it relies on, uses a difference in curves between distribution functions in an ensemble as a transformation to apply to another distribution function, thus transferring the variation in the ensemble to the latter distribution function. This procedure is broadly applicable to the problem of uncertainty propagation. In the context of redshift distributions, for example, the uncertainty contribution due to certain effects can be studied effectively only in simulations, thus necessitating a transfer of variation measured in simulations to the redshift distributions measured from data. We illustrate the use of PITPZ by using the method to propagate photometric calibration uncertainty to redshift distributions of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 weak lensing source galaxies. For this test case, we find that PITPZ yields a lensing amplitude uncertainty estimate due to photometric calibration error within 1 per cent of the truth, compared to as much as a 30 per cent underestimate when using traditional methods.

 

Abstract In this paper, we describe the potential of the LHCb experiment to detect stealth physics. This refers to dynamics beyond the standard model that would elude searches that focus on energetic objects or precision measurements of known processes. Stealth signatures include long-lived particles and light resonances that are produced very rarely or together with overwhelming backgrounds. We will discuss why LHCb is equipped to discover this kind of physics at the Large Hadron Collider and provide examples of well-motivated theoretical models that can be probed with great detail at the experiment. 

Abstract In this paper, we describe the potential of the LHCb experiment to detect stealth physics. This refers to dynamics beyond the standard model that would elude searches that focus on energetic objects or precision measurements of known processes. Stealth signatures include long-lived particles and light resonances that are produced very rarely or together with overwhelming backgrounds. We will discuss why LHCb is equipped to discover this kind of physics at the Large Hadron Collider and provide examples of well-motivated theoretical models that can be probed with great detail at the experiment.