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Granger causality is among the widely used data-driven approaches for causal analysis of time series data with applications in various areas including economics, molecular biology, and neuroscience. Two of the main challenges of this methodology are: 1) over-fitting as a result of limited data duration, and 2) correlated process noise as a confounding factor, both leading to errors in identifying the causal influences. Sparse estimation via the LASSO has successfully addressed these challenges for parameter estimation. However, the classical statistical tests for Granger causality resort to asymptotic analysis of ordinary least squares, which require long data duration to be useful and are not immune to confounding effects. In this work, we address this disconnect by introducing a LASSO-based statistic and studying its non-asymptotic properties under the assumption that the true models admit sparse autoregressive representations. We establish fundamental limits for reliable identification of Granger causal influences using the proposed LASSO-based statistic. We further characterize the false positive error probability and test power of a simple thresholding rule for identifying Granger causal effects and provide two methods to set the threshold in a data-driven fashion. We present simulation studies and application to real data to compare the performance of our proposed method to ordinary least squares and existing LASSO-based methods in detecting Granger causal influences, which corroborate our theoretical results. 

Even though human experience unfolds continuously in time, it is not strictly linear; instead, it entails cascading processes building hierarchical cognitive structures. For instance, during speech perception, humans transform a continuously varying acoustic signal into phonemes, words, and meaning, and these levels all have distinct but interdependent temporal structures. Time-lagged regression usingtemporal response functions (TRFs) has recently emerged as a promising tool for disentangling electrophysiological brain responses related to such complex models of perception. Here, we introduce the Eelbrain Python toolkit, which makes this kind of analysis easy and accessible. We demonstrate its use, using continuous speech as a sample paradigm, with a freely available EEG dataset of audiobook listening. A companion GitHub repository provides the complete source code for the analysis, from raw data to group-level statistics. More generally, we advocate a hypothesis-driven approach in which the experimenter specifies a hierarchy of time-continuous representations that are hypothesized to have contributed to brain responses, and uses those as predictor variables for the electrophysiological signal. This is analogous to a multiple regression problem, but with the addition of a time dimension. TRF analysis decomposes the brain signal into distinct responses associated with the different predictor variables by estimating a multivariate TRF (mTRF), quantifying the influence of each predictor on brain responses as a function of time(-lags). This allows asking two questions about the predictor variables: (1) Is there a significant neural representation corresponding to this predictor variable? And if so, (2) what are the temporal characteristics of the neural response associated with it? Thus, different predictor variables can be systematically combined and evaluated to jointly model neural processing at multiple hierarchical levels. We discuss applications of this approach, including the potential for linking algorithmic/representational theories at different cognitive levels to brain responses through computational models with appropriate linking hypotheses. 

Abstract Cortical ischaemic strokes result in cognitive deficits depending on the area of the affected brain. However, we have demonstrated that difficulties with attention and processing speed can occur even with small subcortical infarcts. Symptoms appear independent of lesion location, suggesting they arise from generalized disruption of cognitive networks. Longitudinal studies evaluating directional measures of functional connectivity in this population are lacking. We evaluated six patients with minor stroke exhibiting cognitive impairment 6–8 weeks post-infarct and four age-similar controls. Resting-state magnetoencephalography data were collected. Clinical and imaging evaluations of both groups were repeated 6- and 12 months later. Network Localized Granger Causality was used to determine differences in directional connectivity between groups and across visits, which were correlated with clinical performance. Directional connectivity patterns remained stable across visits for controls. After the stroke, inter-hemispheric connectivity between the frontoparietal cortex and the non-frontoparietal cortex significantly increased between visits 1 and 2, corresponding to uniform improvement in reaction times and cognitive scores. Initially, the majority of functional links originated from non-frontal areas contralateral to the lesion, connecting to ipsilesional brain regions. By visit 2, inter-hemispheric connections, directed from the ipsilesional to the contralesional cortex significantly increased. At visit 3, patients demonstrating continued favourable cognitive recovery showed less reliance on these inter-hemispheric connections. These changes were not observed in those without continued improvement. Our findings provide supporting evidence that the neural basis of early post-stroke cognitive dysfunction occurs at the network level, and continued recovery correlates with the evolution of inter-hemispheric connectivity. 

The magnetoencephalography (MEG) response to continuous auditory stimuli, such as speech, is commonly described using a linear filter, the auditory temporal response function (TRF). Though components of the sensor level TRFs have been well characterized, the underlying neural sources responsible for these components are not well understood. In this work, we provide a unified framework for determining the TRFs of neural sources directly from the MEG data, by integrating the TRF and distributed forward source models into one, and casting the joint estimation task as a Bayesian optimization problem. Though the resulting problem emerges as non-convex, we propose efficient solutions that leverage recent advances in evidence maximization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting algorithm in both simulated and experimentally recorded MEG data from humans.