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Although lagged correlations have suggested influences of solar wind velocity (V) and number density (N), Bz, ultralow frequency (ULF) wave power, and substorms (as measured by the auroral electrojet (AE) index) on MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit over an impressive number of hours and days, a satellite's diurnal cycle can inflate correlations, associations between drivers may produce spurious effects, and correlations between all previous time steps may create an appearance of additive influence over many hours. Autoregressive‐moving average transfer function (ARMAX) multiple regressions incorporating previous hours simultaneously can eliminate cycles and assess the impact of parameters, at each hour, while others are controlled. ARMAX influences are an order of magnitude lower than correlations uncorrected for time behavior. Most influence occurs within a few hours, not the many hours suggested by correlation. A log transformation accounts for nonlinearities. Over all hours, solar wind velocity (V) and number density (N) show an initial negative impact, with longer term positive influences over the 9 (V) or 27 (N) hr. Bz is initially a positive influence, with a longer term (6 hr) negative effect. ULF waves impact flux in the first (positive) and second (negative) hour before the flux measurement, with further negative influences in the 12–24 hr before. AE (representing electron injection by substorms) shows only a short term (1 hr) positive influence. However, when only recovery and after‐recovery storm periods are considered (using stepwise regression), there are positive influences of ULF waves, AE, andV, with negative influences ofNand Bz.

 

A circuit analogy for magnetosphere-ionosphere current systems has two extremes for drivers of ionospheric currents: the “voltage generator” (ionospheric electric fields/voltages are constant, while current varies) and the “current generator” (current is constant, while the electric field varies). Here we indicate another aspect of the magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction, which should be taken into account when considering the current/voltage dichotomy. We show that nonsteady field-aligned currents interact with the ionosphere in a different way depending on a forced driving or resonant excitation. A quasi-DC driving of field-aligned current corresponds to a voltage generator, when the ground magnetic response is proportional to the ionospheric Hall conductance. The excitation of resonant field line oscillations corresponds to the current generator, when the ground magnetic response only weakly depends on the ionospheric conductance. According to the suggested conception, quasi-DC nonresonant disturbances correspond to a voltage generator. Such ultralow frequency (ULF) phenomena as traveling convection vortices and Pc5 waves should be considered as the resonant response of magnetospheric field lines, and they correspond to a current generator. However, there are quite a few factors that may obscure the determination of the current/voltage dichotomy. 

This paper presents observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves from multiple data sources during the four Geospace Environment Modeling challenge events in 2013 selected by the Geospace Environment Modeling Quantitative Assessment of Radiation Belt Modeling focus group: 17 and 18 March (stormtime enhancement), 31 May to 2 June (stormtime dropout), 19 and 20 September (nonstorm enhancement), and 23–25 September (nonstorm dropout). Observations include EMIC wave data from the Van Allen Probes, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms spacecraft in the near-equatorial magnetosphere and from several arrays of ground-based search coil magnetometers worldwide, as well as localized ring current proton precipitation data from low-altitude Polar Operational Environmental Satellite spacecraft. Each of these data sets provides only limited spatial coverage, but their combination shows consistent occurrence patterns and reveals some events that would not be identified as significant using near-equatorial spacecraft alone. Relativistic and ultrarelativistic electron flux observations, phase space density data, and pitch angle distributions based on data from the Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope and Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer instruments on the Van Allen Probes during these events show two cases during which EMIC waves are likely to have played an important role in causing major flux dropouts of ultrarelativistic electrons, particularly near L* ~4.0. In three other cases, identifiable smaller and more short-lived dropouts appeared, and in five other cases, these waves evidently had little or no effect. 

Many factors influence relativistic outer radiation belt electron fluxes, such as waves in the ultralow frequency (ULF) Pc5, very low frequency (VLF), and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) frequency bands, seed electron flux, Dst disturbance levels, substorm occurrence, and solar wind inputs. In this work we compared relativistic electron flux poststorm versus prestorm using three methods of analysis: (1) multiple regression to predict flux values following storms, (2) multiple regression to predict the size and direction of the change in electron flux, and (3) multiple logistic regression to predict only the probability of the flux rising or falling. We determined which is the most predictive model and which factors are most influential. We found that a linear regression predicting the difference in prestorm and poststorm flux (Model 2) results in the highest validation correlations. The logistic regression used in Model 3 had slightly weaker predictive abilities than the other two models but had the most value in providing a prediction of the probability of the electron flux increasing after a storm. Of the variables used (ULF Pc5 and VLF, seed electrons, substorm activity, and EMIC waves), the most influential in the final model were ULF Pc5 waves and the seed electrons. IMF Bz, Dst, and solar wind number density, velocity, and pressure did not improve any of the models, and were deemed unnecessary for effective predictions.

 

The rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with large, isolated magnetic perturbations with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nanotesla and 5‐ to 10‐min periods can induce bursts of geomagnetically induced currents that can harm technological systems. This paper presents statistical summaries of the characteristics of nightside magnetic perturbation events observed in Eastern Arctic Canada from 2014 through 2017 using data from stations that are part of four magnetometer arrays: MACCS, AUTUMNX, CANMOS, and CARISMA, covering a range of magnetic latitudes from 68 to 78°. Most but not all of the magnetic perturbation events were associated with substorms: roughly two thirds occurred between 5 and 30 min after onset. The association of intense nighttime magnetic perturbation events with magnetic storms was significantly reduced at latitudes above 73°, presumably above the nominal auroral oval. A superposed epoch study of 21 strong events at Cape Dorset showed that the largest |dB/dt| values appeared within an ~275‐km radius that was associated with a region of shear between upward and downward field‐aligned currents. The statistical distributions of impulse amplitudes of both |ΔB| and |dB/dt| fit well the log‐normal distribution at all stations. The |ΔB| distributions are similar over the magnetic latitude range studied, but the kurtosis and skewness of the |dB/dt| distributions show a slight increase with latitude. Knowledge of the statistical characteristics of these events has enabled us to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme impulsive disturbances using the approximation of a log‐normal distribution.

 

Pc3 range frequency (22–100 mHz) auroral pulsations often occur at daytime high latitudes, equatorward of the cusp/cleft and typically map to the dayside outer magnetosphere. In this paper we present simultaneous observations of compressional Pc3 magnetic pulsations in the dayside outer magnetosphere that occurred in direct association with daytime Pc3 auroral pulsations at South Pole Station (−74.4° magnetic latitude). The pulsations were almost identical at the two locations, and their correlation was clearest when the magnetospheric pulsations were highly monochromatic. Lower‐band chorus waves and keV electron fluxes were also modulated in the Pc3 range, likely by the compressional magnetic pulsations. The common Pc3 frequency in the magnetosphere and aurora matched well with the predicted frequency of upstream ultralow frequency waves. These results provide the first compelling evidence for the direct dayside outer magnetosphere‐ionosphere linkage between upstream‐generated compressional Pc3 waves, Pc3 range modulations of chorus waves and keV electrons, and Pc3 auroral pulsations.