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Abstract Spatial complexity impacts the resilience of river ecosystems by mediating processes that control the sources and sinks of sediment and organic material. Using four independent geochemical tracers and three morphometric indices, we show that downstream spatial gradients in stream power (Ω) predict storage of material in the channels and margins and/or floodplains. A field test in a 48 km2 watershed demonstrates that reaches with downstream decreases in Ω coincide with wider floodplains and elevated inventories of 137Cs, 210Pbex (ex—excess), and organic matter in locations of the ~3 to 20 yr floodplain. In contrast, reaches with downstream increases in Ω coincide with narrower floodplains and decreased inventories of 137Cs, 210Pbex, and organic matter. The occurrence of in-channel bedrock exposures and the activity of short-lived 7Be in within-channel sediments also correlate with downstream Ω gradients, demonstrating a link, over both short and long time scales, between withinchannel processes and floodplain-forming processes. The combined geochemical and physical characteristics demonstrate the importance of downstream gradients in sediment transport, characterized by downstream changes in stream power rather than at-a-point stream power, in determining spatial complexity in carbon and sediment storage at intermediate scales (102 to 103 m) in river systems. 

Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing socially relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following features: they focus on temporal (∼1–∼100 years) and spatial (∼1 m–∼10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth surface researchers and decision‐makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by recommending a roadmap for (a) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling; (b) transforming a subset of geomorphic research into earthcasts; and (c) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.