Search for: All records

Abstract. We quantify future changes in wildfire burned area and carbon emissions inthe 21st century under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenariosand two SSP5-8.5-based solar geoengineering scenarios with a target surfacetemperature defined by SSP2-4.5 – solar irradiance reduction (G6solar) andstratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (G6sulfur) – and explore themechanisms that drive solar geoengineering impacts on fires. This study isbased on fully coupled climate–chemistry simulations with simulatedoccurrence of fires (burned area and carbon emissions) using the WholeAtmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) as the atmosphericcomponent of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Globally,total wildfire burned area is projected to increase over the 21st centuryunder scenarios without geoengineering and decrease under the twogeoengineering scenarios. By the end of the century, the two geoengineeringscenarios have lower burned area and fire carbon emissions than not onlytheir base-climate scenario SSP5-8.5 but also the targeted-climate scenarioSSP2-4.5. Geoengineering reduces wildfire occurrence by decreasing surfacetemperature and wind speed and increasing relative humidity and soil water,with the exception of boreal regions where geoengineering increases theoccurrence of wildfires due to a decrease in relative humidity and soilwater compared with the present day. This leads to a global reduction in burnedarea and fire carbon emissions by the end of the century relative to theirbase-climate scenario SSP5-8.5. However, geoengineering also yieldsreductions in precipitation compared with a warming climate, which offsetssome of the fire reduction. Overall, the impacts of the different drivingfactors are larger on burned area than fire carbon emissions. In general,the stratospheric sulfate aerosol approach has a stronger fire-reducingeffect than the solar irradiance reduction approach.

 

Abstract. The widely used open-source community Noah with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (LSM) isdesigned for applications ranging from uncoupled land surfacehydrometeorological and ecohydrological process studies to coupled numericalweather prediction and decadal global or regional climate simulations. It hasbeen used in many coupled community weather, climate, and hydrology models. Inthis study, we modernize and refactor the Noah-MP LSM by adopting modern Fortrancode standards and data structures, which substantially enhance the modelmodularity, interoperability, and applicability. The modernized Noah-MP isreleased as the version 5.0 (v5.0), which has five key features: (1) enhanced modularization as a result of re-organizing model physics into individualprocess-level Fortran module files, (2) an enhanced data structure with newhierarchical data types and optimized variable declaration andinitialization structures, (3) an enhanced code structure and calling workflowas a result of leveraging the new data structure and modularization, (4) enhanced(descriptive and self-explanatory) model variable naming standards, and (5) enhanced driver and interface structures to be coupled with the hostweather, climate, and hydrology models. In addition, we create a comprehensivetechnical documentation of the Noah-MP v5.0 and a set of model benchmark andreference datasets. The Noah-MP v5.0 will be coupled to variousweather, climate, and hydrology models in the future. Overall, the modernizedNoah-MP allows a more efficient and convenient process for future modeldevelopments and applications.

 

Anthropogenically forced-warming and La Niña forced-precipitation deficits caused at least a sixfold risk increase for compound extreme low precipitation and high temperature in California–Nevada from October 2020 to September 2021. 

Drought monitoring and forecasting systems are used in the United States (U.S.) to inform drought management decisions. Drought forecasting efforts have often been conducted and evaluated at coarse spatial resolutions (i.e., >10‐km), which miss key local drought information at higher resolutions. Addressing the importance of forecasting drought at high resolutions, this study develops statistical models to evaluate 1‐ to 3‐month lead time predictability of meteorological and agricultural summer drought across the western U.S. at a 4‐km resolution. Our high‐resolution drought predictions have statistically significant skill (p ≤ 0.05) across 70%–100% of the western U.S., varying by evaluation metric and lead time. 1‐ to 3‐month lead time drought forecasts accurately represent monitored summer drought spatial patterns during major drought events, the interannual variability of drought area from 1982 to 2020 (r = 0.84–0.93), and drought trends (r = 0.94–0.97). 71% of western U.S summer drought area interannual variability can be explained by cold‐season (November–February) climate conditions alone allowing skillful 3‐month lead time predictions. Pre‐summer drought conditions (represented by drought indices) are the most important predictors for summer drought. Thus, the statistical models developed in this study heavily rely on the autocorrelation of chosen agricultural and meteorological drought indices which estimate land surface moisture memory. Indeed, prediction skill strongly correlates with persistence of drought conditions (r ≥ 0.73). This study is intended to support future development of operational drought early warning systems that inform drought management.

 

Abstract. The Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) model has been used in various capacities over the last 15 years to model the spectral albedo of snow with light-absorbing constituents (LACs). Recent studies have extended the model to include an adding-doubling two-stream solver and representations of non-spherical ice particles; carbon dioxide snow; snow algae; and new types of mineral dust, volcanic ash, and brown carbon. New options also exist for ice refractive indices and solar-zenith-angle-dependent surface spectral irradiances used to derive broadband albedo. The model spectral range was also extended deeper into the ultraviolet for studies of extraterrestrial and high-altitude cryospheric surfaces. Until now, however, these improvements and capabilities have not been merged into a unified code base. Here, we document the formulation and evaluation of the publicly available SNICAR-ADv3 source code, web-based model, and accompanying library of constituent optical properties. The use of non-spherical ice grains, which scatter less strongly into the forward direction, reduces the simulated albedo perturbations from LACs by ∼9 %–31 %, depending on which of the three available non-spherical shapes are applied. The model compares very well against measurements of snow albedo from seven studies, though key properties affecting snow albedo are not fully constrained with measurements, including ice effective grain size of the top sub-millimeter of the snowpack, mixing state of LACs with respect to ice grains, and site-specific LAC optical properties. The new default ice refractive indices produce extremely high pure snow albedo (>0.99) in the blue and ultraviolet part of the spectrum, with such values only measured in Antarctica so far. More work is needed particularly in the representation of snow algae, including experimental verification of how different pigment expressions and algal cell concentrations affect snow albedo. Representations and measurements of the influence of liquid water on spectral snow albedo are also needed. 

The Noah‐MP land surface model (LSM) relies on the Monin‐Obukhov (M‐O) Similarity Theory (MOST) to calculate land‐atmosphere exchanges of water, energy, and momentum fluxes. However, MOST flux‐profile relationships neglect canopy‐induced turbulence in the roughness sublayer (RSL) and parameterize within‐canopy turbulence in an ad hoc manner. We implement a new physics scheme (M‐O‐RSL) into Noah‐MP that explicitly parameterizes turbulence in RSL. We compare Noah‐MP simulations employing the M‐O‐RSL scheme (M‐O‐RSL simulations) and the default M‐O scheme (M‐O simulations) against observations obtained from 647 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations and two AmeriFlux stations in the western United States. M‐O‐RSL simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) outperform M‐O simulations over 64% and 69% of SNOTEL sites in terms of root‐mean‐square‐error (RMSE) and correlation, respectively. The largest improvements in skill for M‐O‐RSL occur over closed shrubland sites, and the largest degradations in skill occur over deciduous broadleaf forest sites. Differences between M‐O and M‐O‐RSL simulated snowpack are primarily attributable to differences in aerodynamic conductance for heat underneath the canopy top, which modulates sensible heat flux. Differences between M‐O and M‐O‐RSL within‐canopy and below‐canopy sensible heat fluxes affect the amount of heat transported into snowpack and hence change snowmelt when temperatures are close to or above the melting point. The surface energy budget analysis over two AmeriFlux stations shows that differences between M‐O and M‐O‐RSL simulations can be smaller than other model biases (e.g., surface albedo). We intend for the M‐O‐RSL physics scheme to improve performance and uncertainty estimates in weather and hydrological applications that rely on Noah‐MP.

 

Abstract. The interactions between aerosols and ice clouds represent one of the largest uncertainties in global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time to the present. In particular, the impact of aerosols on ice crystal effective radius (R_ei), which is a key parameter determining ice clouds' net radiative effect, is highly uncertain due to limited and conflicting observational evidence. Here we investigate the effects of aerosols on R_ei under different meteorological conditions using 9-year satellite observations. We find that the responses of R_ei to aerosol loadings are modulated by water vapor amount in conjunction with several other meteorological parameters. While there is a significant negative correlation between R_ei and aerosol loading in moist conditions, consistent with the "Twomey effect" for liquid clouds, a strong positive correlation between the two occurs in dry conditions. Simulations based on a cloud parcel model suggest that water vapor modulates the relative importance of different ice nucleation modes, leading to the opposite aerosol impacts between moist and dry conditions. When ice clouds are decomposed into those generated from deep convection and formed in situ, the water vapor modulation remains in effect for both ice cloud types, although the sensitivities of R_ei to aerosols differ noticeably between them due to distinct formation mechanisms. The water vapor modulation can largely explain the difference in the responses of R_ei to aerosol loadings in various seasons. A proper representation of the water vapor modulation is essential for an accurate estimate of aerosol–cloud radiative forcing produced by ice clouds.