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Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species^1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)³. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests^4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species^6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD^8,9have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data^10–12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones¹³. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity^14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.

 

Tropical forests are well known for their high woody plant diversity. Processes occurring at early life stages are thought to play a critical role in maintaining this high diversity and shaping the composition of tropical tree communities. To evaluate hypothesized mechanisms promoting tropical tree species coexistence and influencing composition, we initiated a census of woody seedlings and small saplings in the permanent 50 ha Forest Dynamics Plot (FDP) on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Situated in old‐growth, lowland tropical moist forest, the BCI FDP was originally established in 1980 to monitor trees and shrubs ≥1 cm diameter at 1.3 m above ground (dbh) at ca. 5‐year intervals. However, critical data on the dynamics occurring at earlier life stages were initially lacking. Therefore, in 2001 we established a 1‐m²seedling plot in the center of every 5 × 5 m section of the BCI FDP. All freestanding woody individuals ≥20 cm tall and <1 cm dbh (hereafter referred to as seedlings) were tagged, mapped, measured, and identified to species in 19,313 1‐m²seedling plots. Because seedling dynamics are rapid, we censused these seedling plots every 1–2 years. Here, we present data from the 14 censuses of these seedling plots conducted between the initial census in 2001 to the most recent census, in 2018. This data set includes nearly 1 M observations of ~185,000 individuals of >400 tree, shrub, and liana species. These data will permit spatially‐explicit analyses of seedling distributions, recruitment, growth, and survival for hundreds of woody plant species. In addition, the data presented here can be linked to openly‐available, long‐term data on the dynamics of trees and shrubs ≥1 cm dbh in the BCI FDP, as well as existing data sets from the site on climate, canopy structure, phylogenetic relatedness, functional traits, soil nutrients, and topography. This data set can be freely used for non‐commercial purposes; we request that users of these data cite this data paper in all publications resulting from the use of this data set.

 

One mechanism proposed to explain high species diversity in tropical systems is strong negative conspecific density dependence (CDD), which reduces recruitment of juveniles in proximity to conspecific adult plants. Although evidence shows that plant-specific soil pathogens can drive negative CDD, trees also form key mutualisms with mycorrhizal fungi, which may counteract these effects. Across 43 large-scale forest plots worldwide, we tested whether ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibit weaker negative CDD than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. We further tested for conmycorrhizal density dependence (CMDD) to test for benefit from shared mutualists. We found that the strength of CDD varies systematically with mycorrhizal type, with ectomycorrhizal tree species exhibiting higher sapling densities with increasing adult densities than arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species. Moreover, we found evidence of positive CMDD for tree species of both mycorrhizal types. Collectively, these findings indicate that mycorrhizal interactions likely play a foundational role in global forest diversity patterns and structure.

 

Both tree size and life history variation drive forest structure and dynamics, but little is known about how life history frequency changes with size. We used a scaling framework to quantify ontogenetic size variation and assessed patterns of abundance, richness, productivity and light interception across life history strategies from >114,000 trees in a primary, neotropical forest. We classified trees along two life history axes: afast–slowaxis characterized by a growth–survival trade‐off, and astature–recruitmentaxis with tall,long‐lived pioneersat one end and short,short‐lived recruitersat the other.

Relative abundance, richness, productivity and light interception follow an approximate power law, systematically shifting over an order of magnitude with tree size.Slowsaplings dominate the understorey, butslowtrees decline to parity with rapidly growingfastandlong‐lived pioneerspecies in the canopy.

Like the community as a whole,slowspecies are the closest to obeying the energy equivalence rule (EER)—with equal productivity per size class—but other life histories strongly increase productivity with tree size. Productivity is fuelled by resources, and the scaling of light interception corresponds to the scaling of productivity across life history strategies, withslowandallspecies near solar energy equivalence. This points towards a resource‐use corollary to the EER: the resource equivalence rule.

Fitness trade‐offs associated with tree size and life history may promote coexistence in tropical forests by limiting niche overlap and reducing fitness differences.

Synthesis. Tree life history strategies describe the different ways trees grow, survive and recruit in the understorey. We show that the proportion of trees with a pioneer life history strategy increases steadily with tree size, as pioneers become relatively more abundant, productive, diverse and capture more resources towards the canopy. Fitness trade‐offs associated with size and life history strategy offer a mechanism for coexistence in tropical forests.

 

Understanding tropical forest dynamics and planning for their sustainable management require efficient, yet accurate, predictions of the joint dynamics of hundreds of tree species. With increasing information on tropical tree life histories, our predictive understanding is no longer limited by species data but by the ability of existing models to make use of it. Using a demographic forest model, we show that the basal area and compositional changes during forest succession in a neotropical forest can be accurately predicted by representing tropical tree diversity (hundreds of species) with only five functional groups spanning two essential trade-offs—the growth-survival and stature-recruitment trade-offs. This data-driven modeling framework substantially improves our ability to predict consequences of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests. 

The Janzen–Connell hypothesis is a well-known explanation for why tropical forests have large numbers of tree species. A fundamental prediction of the hypothesis is that the probability of adult recruitment is less in regions of high conspecific adult density, a pattern mediated by density-dependent mortality in juvenile life stages. Although there is strong evidence in many tree species that seeds, seedlings, and saplings suffer conspecific density-dependent mortality, no study has shown that adult tree recruitment is negatively density dependent. Density-dependent adult recruitment is necessary for the Janzen–Connell mechanism to regulate tree populations. Here, we report density-dependent adult recruitment in the population ofHandroanthus guayacan, a wind-dispersed Neotropical canopy tree species. We use data from high-resolution remote sensing to track individual trees with proven capacity to flower in a lowland moist forest landscape in Panama and analyze these data in a Bayesian framework similar to capture–recapture analysis. We independently quantify probabilities of adult tree recruitment and detection and show that adult recruitment is negatively density dependent. The annualized probability of adult recruitment was 3.03% ⋅ year⁻¹. Despite the detection of negative density dependence in adult recruitment, it was insufficient to stabilize the adult population ofH. guayacan, which increased significantly in size over the decade of observation.

 

Tree death due to lightning influences tropical forest carbon cycling and tree community dynamics. However, the distribution of lightning damage among trees in forests remains poorly understood.

We developed models to predict direct and secondary lightning damage to trees based on tree size, crown exposure and local forest structure. We parameterized these models using data on the locations of lightning strikes and censuses of tree damage in strike zones, combined with drone‐based maps of tree crowns and censuses of all trees within a 50‐ha forest dynamics plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama.

The likelihood of a direct strike to a tree increased with larger exposed crown area and higher relative canopy position (emergent > canopy >>> subcanopy), whereas the likelihood of secondary lightning damage increased with tree diameter and proximity to neighbouring trees. The predicted frequency of lightning damage in this mature forest was greater for tree species with larger average diameters.

These patterns suggest that lightning influences forest structure and the global carbon budget by non‐randomly damaging large trees. Moreover, these models provide a framework for investigating the ecological and evolutionary consequences of lightning disturbance in tropical forests.

Synthesis. Our findings indicate that the distribution of lightning damage is stochastic at large spatial grain and relatively deterministic at smaller spatial grain (<15 m). Lightning is more likely to directly strike taller trees with large crowns and secondarily damage large neighbouring trees that are closest to the directly struck tree. The results provide a framework for understanding how lightning can affect forest structure, forest dynamics and carbon cycling. The resulting lightning risk model will facilitate informed investigations into the effects of lightning in tropical forests.

 

Abstract Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) associations are critical for host-tree performance. However, how mycorrhizal associations correlate with the latitudinal tree beta-diversity remains untested. Using a global dataset of 45 forest plots representing 2,804,270 trees across 3840 species, we test how AM and EcM trees contribute to total beta-diversity and its components (turnover and nestedness) of all trees. We find AM rather than EcM trees predominantly contribute to decreasing total beta-diversity and turnover and increasing nestedness with increasing latitude, probably because wide distributions of EcM trees do not generate strong compositional differences among localities. Environmental variables, especially temperature and precipitation, are strongly correlated with beta-diversity patterns for both AM trees and all trees rather than EcM trees. Results support our hypotheses that latitudinal beta-diversity patterns and environmental effects on these patterns are highly dependent on mycorrhizal types. Our findings highlight the importance of AM-dominated forests for conserving global forest biodiversity.