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Ecological calendars are knowledge systems based on close observation of one's habitat to measure and give meaning to time, thereby providing anticipatory capacity for livelihood activities and contributing to food sovereignty. They rely upon seasonal indicators that integrate biophysical and ecological phenomena (e.g., first snowfall, last frost, blossoming of a tree species; seasonal appearance of an animal or plant) with locally grounded cultural meaning and value systems. These context‐specific relationships have enabled Indigenous and rural societies to anticipate weather and other seasonal processes in their environment. However, anthropogenic climate change could undermine ecological calendars due to adverse impacts on specific indicators species, but this issue remains unexplored. We address this knowledge gap by examining how anthropogenic climate change might affect selected species (birds, fish, and mammals) that are seasonal and key to Indigenous food systems in two Western Arctic communities. We leverage existing dietary animal datasets to which we apply a novel methodology for assessing organismal vulnerability to climate change. The methodology uses intrinsic species traits such as physiological tolerances, genetic variability, and life history traits to generate an empirical and integrative assessment of vulnerability for any given species. Subsequently, an aggregate view of vulnerability across calendar species is achieved through comparative statistical analysis across species both within and between communities. This exercise permits the first quantitative assessment of the continued relevance and effective use of an ecological calendar, thus demonstrating that food sovereignty and livelihood security is enhanced by biodiversity of indicator species.

 

Indigenous and rural societies who have contributed least to anthropogenic climate change are facing its harshest consequences. One of the greatest challenges of climate change is lack of predictability, especially at the local scale. An estimated 70-80% of the world’s food is produced by smallholders with less than two hectares of land. These small-scale farmers and herders face an ever-shifting ‘new normal’ climate, increasing inconsistency in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation, and higher frequency of what were once considered extreme weather events. Climate variability is disrupting food systems and generating a debilitating anxiety. Anticipatory capacity – the ability to envision possible futures and develop a plan of action to deal with uncertainties – is needed urgently. Communities and researchers must create innovative systems to recognize and respond to climate trends and prepare for a greater range of possible scenarios. To build anticipatory capacity for climate change, communities need systems that are effective at the scale of the village and valley. In this brief communication we suggest a new approach for applied participatory action research to build anticipatory capacity for climate change. Specifically, we describe the development of ecological calendars that integrate indigenous knowledge and scientific data, and therefore require input from both communities of inquirers and communities of practice. We provide a case study of our ongoing work in the Pamir Mountains of Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, where we are in the midst of transdisciplinaryresearch with indigenous agropastoralists.