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We present an analysis of new and archival data to the 20.506 minute LISA verification binary J052610.42+593445.32 (J0526+5934). Our joint spectroscopic and photometric analysis finds that the binary contains an unseenM₁= 0.89 ± 0.11M_⊙CO-core white dwarf primary with anM₂= 0.38 ± 0.07M_⊙post-core-burning subdwarf, or low-mass white dwarf, companion. Given the short orbital period and relatively large total binary mass, we find that LISA will detect this binary with signal-to-noise ratio 44 after 4 yr of observations. J0526+5934 is expected to merge within 1.8 ± 0.3 Myr and likely result in a D⁶scenario Type Ia supernova or form a He-rich star that will evolve into a massive single white dwarf.

 

Galactic compact binaries with orbital periods shorter than a few hours emit detectable gravitational waves (GWs) at low frequencies. Their GW signals can be detected with the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Crucially, they may be useful in the early months of the mission operation in helping to validate LISA's performance in comparison to prelaunch expectations. We present an updated list of 55 candidate LISA-detectable binaries with measured properties, for which we derive distances based on Gaia Data Release 3 astrometry. Based on the known properties from electromagnetic observations, we predict the LISA detectability after 1, 3, 6, and 48 months using Bayesian analysis methods. We distinguish between verification and detectable binaries as being detectable after 3 and 48 months, respectively. We find 18 verification binaries and 22 detectable sources, which triples the number of known LISA binaries over the last few years. These include detached double white dwarfs, AM CVn binaries, one ultracompact X-ray binary, and two hot subdwarf binaries. We find that across this sample the GW amplitude is expected to be measured to ≈10% on average, while the inclination is expected to be determined with ≈15° precision. For detectable binaries, these average errors increase to ≈50% and ≈40°, respectively.

 

The upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect a large gravitational-wave foreground of Galactic white dwarf binaries. These sources are exceptional for their probable detection at electromagnetic wavelengths, some long before LISA flies. Studies in both gravitational and electromagnetic waves will yield strong constraints on system parameters not achievable through measurements of one messenger alone. In this work, we present a Bayesian inference pipeline and simulation suite in which we study potential constraints on binaries in a variety of configurations. We show how using LISA detections and parameter estimation can significantly improve constraints on system parameters when used as a prior for the electromagnetic analyses. We also provide rules of thumb for how current measurements will benefit from LISA measurements in the future.

 

Analyses of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nanohertz frequency band. The most plausible source of this background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for this background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely (i) Gaussianity, (ii) isotropy, and most often, (iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated data sets. The data-set length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated data sets, even though their fundamental assumptions are not strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them.

 

Abstract The science objectives of the LISA mission have been defined under the implicit assumption of a 4-years continuous data stream. Based on the performance of LISA Pathfinder, it is now expected that LISA will have a duty cycle of $$\approx 0.75$$ ≈ 0.75 , which would reduce the effective span of usable data to 3 years. This paper reports the results of a study by the LISA Science Group, which was charged with assessing the additional science return of increasing the mission lifetime. We explore various observational scenarios to assess the impact of mission duration on the main science objectives of the mission. We find that the science investigations most affected by mission duration concern the search for seed black holes at cosmic dawn, as well as the study of stellar-origin black holes and of their formation channels via multi-band and multi-messenger observations. We conclude that an extension to 6 years of mission operations is recommended. 

Abstract The NANOGrav 15 yr data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15 yr observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach subparsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations.