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Observations of oceanic transient tracers have indicated that the circulation in the Southern Ocean has changed in recent decades, potentially driven by changes in external climate forcing. Here, we use the CESM Large Ensemble to analyze changes in two oceanic tracers that are affected by ocean circulation: the partial pressure of chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (pCFC12) and the idealized model tracer Ideal Age (IAGE) over the 1991 to 2005 period. The small ensemble mean change in IAGE suggests that there has been very little externally forced change in Southern Ocean circulation over this period, in contrast to strong internal variability. Further, our analysis implies that real‐world observations of changes in pCFC12 may not be a robust way to characterize externally driven changes in Southern Ocean circulation because of the large internal variability in pCFC12 changes exhibited by the individual ensemble members.

Interannual variations in marine net primary production (NPP) contribute to the variability of available living marine resources, as well as influence critical carbon cycle processes. Here we provide a global overview of near‐term (1 to 10 years) potential predictability of marine NPP using a novel set of initialized retrospective decadal forecasts from an Earth System Model. Interannual variations in marine NPP are potentially predictable in many areas of the ocean 1 to 3 years in advance, from temperate waters to the tropics, showing a substantial improvement over a simple persistence forecast. However, some regions, such as the subpolar Southern Ocean, show low potential predictability. We analyze how bottom‐up drivers of marine NPP (nutrients, light, and temperature) contribute to its predictability. Regions where NPP is primarily driven by the physical supply of nutrients (e.g., subtropics) retain higher potential predictability than high‐latitude regions where NPP is controlled by light and/or temperature (e.g., the Southern Ocean). We further examine NPP predictability in the world's Large Marine Ecosystems. With a few exceptions, we show that initialized forecasts improve potential predictability of NPP in Large Marine Ecosystems over a persistence forecast and may aid to manage living marine resources.

Anthropogenic CO₂emissions are inundating the upper ocean, acidifying the water, and altering the habitat for marine phytoplankton. These changes are thought to be particularly influential for calcifying phytoplankton, namely, coccolithophores. Coccolithophores are widespread and account for a substantial portion of open ocean calcification; changes in their abundance, distribution, or level of calcification could have far‐reaching ecological and biogeochemical impacts. Here, we isolate the effects of increasing CO₂on coccolithophores using an explicit coccolithophore phytoplankton functional type parameterization in the Community Earth System Model. Coccolithophore growth and calcification are sensitive to changing aqueous CO₂. While holding circulation constant, we demonstrate that increasing CO₂concentrations cause coccolithophores in most areas to decrease calcium carbonate production relative to growth. However, several oceanic regions show large increases in calcification, such the North Atlantic, Western Pacific, and parts of the Southern Ocean, due to an alleviation of carbon limitation for coccolithophore growth. Global annual calcification is 6% higher under present‐day CO₂levels relative to preindustrial CO₂(1.5 compared to 1.4 Pg C/year). However, under 900 μatm CO₂, global annual calcification is 11% lower than under preindustrial CO₂levels (1.2 Pg C/year). Large portions of the ocean show greatly decreased coccolithophore calcification relative to growth, resulting in significant regional carbon export and air‐sea CO₂exchange feedbacks. Our study implies that coccolithophores become more abundant but less calcified as CO₂increases with a tipping point in global calcification (changing from increasing to decreasing calcification relative to preindustrial) at approximately ∼600 μatm CO₂.