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Precipitation is the primary driver of hydrological models, and its spatial and temporal variability have a great impact on water partitioning. However, in data‐sparse regions, uncertainty in precipitation estimates is high and the sensitivity of water partitioning to this uncertainty is unknown. This is a particular challenge in drylands (semi‐arid and arid regions) where the water balance is highly sensitive to rainfall, yet there is commonly a lack of in situ rain gauge data. To understand the impact of precipitation uncertainty on the water balance in drylands, here we have performed simulations with a process‐based hydrological model developed to characterize the water balance in arid and semi‐arid regions (DRYP: DRYland water Partitioning model). We performed a series of numerical analyses in the Upper Ewaso Ng'iro basin, Kenya driven by three gridded precipitation datasets with different spatio‐temporal resolutions (IMERG, MSWEP, and ERA5), evaluating simulations against streamflow observations and remotely sensed data products of soil moisture, actual evapotranspiration, and total water storage. We found that despite the great differences in the spatial distribution of rainfall across a climatic gradient within the basin, DRYP shows good performance for representing streamflow (KGE >0.6), soil moisture, actual evapotranspiration, and total water storage (r >0.5). However, the choice of precipitation datasets greatly influences surface (infiltration, runoff, and transmission losses) and subsurface fluxes (groundwater recharge and discharge) across different climatic zones of the Ewaso Ng'iro basin. Within humid areas, evapotranspiration does not show sensitivity to the choice of precipitation dataset, however, in dry lowland areas it becomes more sensitive to precipitation rates as water‐limited conditions develop. The analysis shows that the highest rates of precipitation produce high rates of diffuse recharge in Ewaso uplands and also propagate into runoff, transmission losses and, ultimately focused recharge, with the latter acting as the main mechanism of groundwater recharge in low dry areas. The results from this modelling exercise suggest that care must be taken in selecting forcing precipitation data to drive hydrological modelling efforts, especially in basins that span a climatic gradient. These results also suggest that more effort is required to reduce uncertainty between different precipitation datasets, which will in turn result in more consistent quantification of the water balance.

 

Gravitational waves provide a unique tool for observational astronomy. While the first LIGO–Virgo catalogue of gravitational wave transients (GWTC-1) contains 11 signals from black hole and neutron star binaries, the number of observations is increasing rapidly as detector sensitivity improves. To extract information from the observed signals, it is imperative to have fast, flexible, and scalable inference techniques. In a previous paper, we introduced BILBY: a modular and user-friendly Bayesian inference library adapted to address the needs of gravitational-wave inference. In this work, we demonstrate that BILBY produces reliable results for simulated gravitational-wave signals from compact binary mergers, and verify that it accurately reproduces results reported for the 11 GWTC-1 signals. Additionally, we provide configuration and output files for all analyses to allow for easy reproduction, modification, and future use. This work establishes that BILBY is primed and ready to analyse the rapidly growing population of compact binary coalescence gravitational-wave signals. 

We present Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (Fermi-GBM) and Swift Burst Alert Telescope (Swift-BAT) searches for gamma-ray/X-ray counterparts to gravitational-wave (GW) candidate events identified during the third observing run of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. Using Fermi-GBM onboard triggers and subthreshold gamma-ray burst (GRB) candidates found in the Fermi-GBM ground analyses, the Targeted Search and the Untargeted Search, we investigate whether there are any coincident GRBs associated with the GWs. We also search the Swift-BAT rate data around the GW times to determine whether a GRB counterpart is present. No counterparts are found. Using both the Fermi-GBM Targeted Search and the Swift-BAT search, we calculate flux upper limits and present joint upper limits on the gamma-ray luminosity of each GW. Given these limits, we constrain theoretical models for the emission of gamma rays from binary black hole mergers.

 

We search for gravitational-wave (GW) transients associated with fast radio bursts (FRBs) detected by the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment Fast Radio Burst Project, during the first part of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 April 1 15:00 UTC–2019 October 1 15:00 UTC). Triggers from 22 FRBs were analyzed with a search that targets both binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star–black hole (NSBH) mergers. A targeted search for generic GW transients was conducted on 40 FRBs. We find no significant evidence for a GW association in either search. Given the large uncertainties in the distances of our FRB sample, we are unable to exclude the possibility of a GW association. Assessing the volumetric event rates of both FRB and binary mergers, an association is limited to 15% of the FRB population for BNS mergers or 1% for NSBH mergers. We report 90% confidence lower bounds on the distance to each FRB for a range of GW progenitor models and set upper limits on the energy emitted through GWs for a range of emission scenarios. We find values of order 10⁵¹–10⁵⁷erg for models with central GW frequencies in the range 70–3560 Hz. At the sensitivity of this search, we find these limits to be above the predicted GW emissions for the models considered. We also find no significant coincident detection of GWs with the repeater, FRB 20200120E, which is the closest known extragalactic FRB.