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We present posterior sample redshift distributions for the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program Weak Lensing three-year (HSC Y3) analysis. Using the galaxies’ photometry and spatial cross-correlations, we conduct a combined Bayesian Hierarchical Inference of the sample redshift distributions. The spatial cross-correlations are derived using a subsample of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) with accurate redshift information available up to a photometric redshift of z < 1.2. We derive the photometry-based constraints using a combination of two empirical techniques calibrated on spectroscopic and multiband photometric data that cover a spatial subset of the shear catalogue. The limited spatial coverage induces a cosmic variance error budget that we include in the inference. Our cross-correlation analysis models the photometric redshift error of the LRGs to correct for systematic biases and statistical uncertainties. We demonstrate consistency between the sample redshift distributions derived using the spatial cross-correlations, the photometry, and the posterior of the combined analysis. Based on this assessment, we recommend conservative priors for sample redshift distributions of tomographic bins used in the three-year cosmological Weak Lensing analyses.

 

Recovering credible cosmological parameter constraints in a weak lensing shear analysis requires an accurate model that can be used to marginalize over nuisance parameters describing potential sources of systematic uncertainty, such as the uncertainties on the sample redshift distribution n(z). Due to the challenge of running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in the high-dimensional parameter spaces in which the n(z) uncertainties may be parametrized, it is common practice to simplify the n(z) parametrization or combine MCMC chains that each have a fixed n(z) resampled from the n(z) uncertainties. In this work, we propose a statistically principled Bayesian resampling approach for marginalizing over the n(z) uncertainty using multiple MCMC chains. We self-consistently compare the new method to existing ones from the literature in the context of a forecasted cosmic shear analysis for the HSC three-year shape catalogue, and find that these methods recover statistically consistent error bars for the cosmological parameter constraints for predicted HSC three-year analysis, implying that using the most computationally efficient of the approaches is appropriate. However, we find that for data sets with the constraining power of the full HSC survey data set (and, by implication, those upcoming surveys with even tighter constraints), the choice of method for marginalizing over n(z) uncertainty among the several methods from the literature may modify the 1σ uncertainties on Ωm–S8 constraints by ∼4 per cent, and a careful model selection is needed to ensure credible parameter intervals.

 

Cosmological weak lensing measurements rely on a precise measurement of the shear two-point correlation function (2PCF) along with a deep understanding of systematics that affect it. In this work, we demonstrate a general framework for detecting and modelling the impact of PSF systematics on the cosmic shear 2PCF and mitigating its impact on cosmological analysis. Our framework can detect PSF leakage and modelling error from all spin-2 quantities contributed by the PSF second and higher moments, rather than just the second moments, using the cross-correlations between galaxy shapes and PSF moments. We interpret null tests using the HSC Year 3 (Y3) catalogs with this formalism and find that leakage from the spin-2 combination of PSF fourth moments is the leading contributor to additive shear systematics, with total contamination that is an order-of-magnitude higher than that contributed by PSF second moments alone. We conducted a mock cosmic shear analysis for HSC Y3 and find that, if uncorrected, PSF systematics can bias the cosmological parameters Ωm and S8 by ∼0.3σ. The traditional second moment-based model can only correct for a 0.1σ bias, leaving the contamination largely uncorrected. We conclude it is necessary to model both PSF second and fourth moment contaminations for HSC Y3 cosmic shear analysis. We also reanalyse the HSC Y1 cosmic shear analysis with our updated systematics model and identify a 0.07σ bias on Ωm when using the more restricted second moment model from the original analysis. We demonstrate how to self-consistently use the method in both real space and Fourier space, assess shear systematics in tomographic bins, and test for PSF model overfitting.

 

Galaxies exhibit coherent alignments with local structure in the Universe. This effect, called intrinsic alignments (IAs), is an important contributor to the systematic uncertainties for wide-field weak lensing surveys. On cosmological distance scales, intrinsic shape alignments have been observed in red galaxies, which are usually bulge-dominated; while blue galaxies, which are mostly disc-dominated, exhibit shape alignments consistent with a null detection. However, disc-dominated galaxies typically consist of two prominent structures: disc and bulge. Since the bulge component has similar properties as elliptical galaxies and is thought to have formed in a similar fashion, naturally one could ask whether the bulge components exhibit similar alignments as ellipticals? In this paper, we investigate how different components of galaxies exhibit IA in the TNG100-1 cosmological hydrodynamical simulation, as well as the dependence of IA on the fraction of stars in rotation-dominated structures at $z$ = 0. The measurements were controlled for mass differences between the samples. We find that the bulges exhibit significantly higher IA signals, with a non-linear alignment model amplitude of $A_I = 2.98^{+0.36}_{-0.37}$ compared to the amplitude for the galaxies as a whole (both components), $A_I = 1.13^{+0.37}_{-0.35}$. The results for bulges are statistically consistent with those for elliptical galaxies, which have $A_I = 3.47^{+0.57}_{-0.57}$. These results highlight the importance of studying galaxy dynamics in order to understand galaxy alignments and their cosmological implications.

 

In order to prepare for the upcoming wide-field cosmological surveys, large simulations of the Universe with realistic galaxy populations are required. In particular, the tendency of galaxies to naturally align towards overdensities, an effect called intrinsic alignments (IA), can be a major source of systematics in the weak lensing analysis. As the details of galaxy formation and evolution relevant to IA cannot be simulated in practice on such volumes, we propose as an alternative a Deep Generative Model. This model is trained on the IllustrisTNG-100 simulation and is capable of sampling the orientations of a population of galaxies so as to recover the correct alignments. In our approach, we model the cosmic web as a set of graphs, where the graphs are constructed for each halo, and galaxy orientations as a signal on those graphs. The generative model is implemented on a Generative Adversarial Network architecture and uses specifically designed Graph-Convolutional Networks sensitive to the relative 3D positions of the vertices. Given (sub)halo masses and tidal fields, the model is able to learn and predict scalar features such as galaxy and dark matter subhalo shapes; and more importantly, vector features such as the 3D orientation of the major axis of the ellipsoid and the complex 2D ellipticities. For correlations of 3D orientations the model is in good quantitative agreement with the measured values from the simulation, except for at very small and transition scales. For correlations of 2D ellipticities, the model is in good quantitative agreement with the measured values from the simulation on all scales. Additionally, the model is able to capture the dependence of IA on mass, morphological type, and central/satellite type.

 

ABSTRACT In the era of precision cosmology and ever-improving cosmological simulations, a better understanding of different galaxy components such as bulges and discs will give us new insight into galactic formation and evolution. Based on the fact that the stellar populations of the constituent components of galaxies differ by their dynamical properties, we develop two simple models for galaxy decomposition using the TNG100 cosmological hydrodynamical simulation from the IllustrisTNG project. The first model uses a single dynamical parameter and can distinguish four components: thin disc, thick disc, counter-rotating disc, and bulge. The second model uses one more dynamical parameter, was defined in a probabilistic manner, and distinguishes two components: bulge and disc. We demonstrate the improved robustness of these models compared to a widely used method in literature involving cuts on the circularity parameter. The number fraction of disc-dominated galaxies at a given stellar mass obtained by our models agrees well with observations for masses exceeding log10(M*/M⊙) = 10. The galaxies classified as bulge-dominated by the second model are mostly red; however, the population classified as disc-dominated contains significant number of red galaxies alongside the blue population. The contributions of the different galaxy components to the total stellar mass budget exhibits similar trends with stellar mass compared to the observational data, although there is a quantitative disagreement at high and low masses. The Sérsic indices and half-mass radii for the bulge and disc components agree well with those of real galaxies. 

ABSTRACT Image simulations are essential tools for preparing and validating the analysis of current and future wide-field optical surveys. However, the galaxy models used as the basis for these simulations are typically limited to simple parametric light profiles, or use a fairly limited amount of available space-based data. In this work, we propose a methodology based on deep generative models to create complex models of galaxy morphologies that may meet the image simulation needs of upcoming surveys. We address the technical challenges associated with learning this morphology model from noisy and point spread function (PSF)-convolved images by building a hybrid Deep Learning/physical Bayesian hierarchical model for observed images, explicitly accounting for the PSF and noise properties. The generative model is further made conditional on physical galaxy parameters, to allow for sampling new light profiles from specific galaxy populations. We demonstrate our ability to train and sample from such a model on galaxy postage stamps from the HST/ACS COSMOS survey, and validate the quality of the model using a range of second- and higher order morphology statistics. Using this set of statistics, we demonstrate significantly more realistic morphologies using these deep generative models compared to conventional parametric models. To help make these generative models practical tools for the community, we introduce galsim-hub, a community-driven repository of generative models, and a framework for incorporating generative models within the galsim image simulation software. 

Weak gravitational lensing is one of the most powerful tools for cosmology, while subject to challenges in quantifying subtle systematic biases. The point spread function (PSF) can cause biases in weak lensing shear inference when the PSF model does not match the true PSF that is convolved with the galaxy light profile. Although the effect of PSF size and shape errors – i.e. errors in second moments – is well studied, weak lensing systematics associated with errors in higher moments of the PSF model require further investigation. The goal of our study is to estimate their potential impact for LSST weak lensing analysis. We go beyond second moments of the PSF by using image simulations to relate multiplicative bias in shear to errors in the higher moments of the PSF model. We find that the current level of errors in higher moments of the PSF model in data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam survey can induce a ∼0.05 per cent shear bias, making this effect unimportant for ongoing surveys but relevant at the precision of upcoming surveys such as LSST.

 

ABSTRACT We investigate the redshift evolution of the intrinsic alignments (IAs) of galaxies in the MassiveBlackII (MBII) simulation. We select galaxy samples above fixed subhalo mass cuts ($M_h\gt 10^{11,12,13}\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{-1}$) at z = 0.6 and trace their progenitors to z = 3 along their merger trees. Dark matter components of z = 0.6 galaxies are more spherical than their progenitors while stellar matter components tend to be less spherical than their progenitors. The distribution of the galaxy–subhalo misalignment angle peaks at ∼10 deg with a mild increase with time. The evolution of the ellipticity–direction (ED) correlation amplitude ω(r) of galaxies (which quantifies the tendency of galaxies to preferentially point towards surrounding matter overdensities) is governed by the evolution in the alignment of underlying dark matter (DM) subhaloes to the matter density of field, as well as the alignment between galaxies and their DM subhaloes. At scales $\sim 1~\mathrm{Mpc}\, h^{-1}$, the alignment between DM subhaloes and matter overdensity gets suppressed with time, whereas the alignment between galaxies and DM subhaloes is enhanced. These competing tendencies lead to a complex redshift evolution of ω(r) for galaxies at $\sim 1~\mathrm{Mpc}\, h^{-1}$. At scales $\gt 1~\mathrm{Mpc}\, h^{-1}$, alignment between DM subhaloes and matter overdensity does not evolve significantly; the evolution of the galaxy–subhalo misalignment therefore leads to an increase in ω(r) for galaxies by a factor of ∼4 from z = 3 to 0.6 at scales $\gt 1~\mathrm{Mpc}\, h^{-1}$. The balance between competing physical effects is scale dependent, leading to different conclusions at much smaller scales ($\sim 0.1~\mathrm{Mpc}\, h^{-1}$). 

Abstract Modifications of the matter power spectrum due to baryonic physics are one of the major theoretical uncertainties in cosmological weak lensing measurements. Developing robust mitigation schemes for this source of systematic uncertainty increases the robustness of cosmological constraints, and may increase their precision if they enable the use of information from smaller scales. Here we explore the performance of two mitigation schemes for baryonic effects in weak lensing cosmic shear: the principal component analysis (PCA) method and the halo-model approach in hmcode. We construct mock tomographic shear power spectra from four hydrodynamical simulations, and run simulated likelihood analyses with cosmolike assuming LSST-like survey statistics. With an angular scale cut of ℓmax < 2000, both methods successfully remove the biases in cosmological parameters due to the various baryonic physics scenarios, with the PCA method causing less degradation in the parameter constraints than hmcode. For a more aggressive ℓmax = 5000, the PCA method performs well for all but one baryonic physics scenario, requiring additional training simulations to account for the extreme baryonic physics scenario of Illustris; hmcode exhibits tensions in the 2D posterior distributions of cosmological parameters due to lack of freedom in describing the power spectrum for $k \gt 10\ h^{-1}\, \mathrm{Mpc}$. We investigate variants of the PCA method and improve the bias mitigation through PCA by accounting for the noise properties in the data via Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix. Our improved PCA method allows us to retain more statistical constraining power while effectively mitigating baryonic uncertainties even for a broad range of baryonic physics scenarios.