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Often marketers face the challenge of how to communicate best with the customers who have the right responsibilities, influence or purchasing power, especially in business-to-business (B2B) settings. For example, B2B marketers selling software and IT need to identify IT decision-makers (ITDMs) within organizations. The modern digital environment in theory allows marketers to target individuals in organizations through specifically designed third-party audience segments based on deterministic prospect lists or probabilistic inference. However, in this paper we show that in our context, such ‘off-the-shelf’ segments perform no better at reaching the right person than random prospecting. We present evidence that even deterministic attribute information is flawed for ITDM identification, and that the poor campaign results can be partly linked to incorrect assignment of established prospect profiles to online identifiers. We then use access to our publisher network data to investigate what would happen if the advertiser had used first-party data that are less susceptible to the identified issues. We demonstrate that first-party demographics or contextual information allows advertisers and publishers to outperform both third-party ITDM audience segments and random prospecting. Our findings have implications for understanding the shift in digital advertising away from third-party cookie tracking, and how to execute digital marketing in the context of broad privacy regulation.

 

The evolution and expansion of land plants brought about one of the most dramatic shifts in the history of the Earth system — the birth of modern soils — and likely stimulated massive changes in marine biogeochemistry and climate. Multiple marine extinctions characterized by widespread anoxia, including the Late Devonian mass extinction around 372 million years ago, may have been linked to terrestrial release of the nutrient phosphorus driven by newly-rooted landscapes. Here we use recently published Devonian lake records as variable inputs in an Earth system model of the coupled carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus-oxygen-sulfur biogeochemical cycles to evaluate whether recorded changes to phosphorus fluxes could sustain Devonian marine anoxia sufficient to drive mass extinction. Results show that globally scaled increases in riverine phosphorus export during the Late Devonian mass extinction could have generated widespread marine anoxia, as modeled perturbations in carbon isotope, temperature, oxygen, and carbon dioxide data are generally consistent with the geologic record. Similar results for large scale volcanism suggest the Late Devonian mass extinction was likely multifaceted with both land plants and volcanism as contributing factors.

 

The evolution of land plant root systems occurred stepwise throughout the Devonian, with the first evidence of complex root systems appearing in the mid-Givetian. This biological innovation provided an enhanced pathway for the transfer of terrestrial phosphorus (P) to the marine system via weathering and erosion. This enhancement is consistent with paleosol records and has led to hypotheses about the causes of marine eutrophication and mass extinctions during the Devonian. To gain insight into the transport of P between terrestrial and marine domains, we report geochemical records from a survey of Middle and Late Devonian lacustrine and near-lacustrine sequences that span some of these key marine extinction intervals. Root innovation is hypothesized to have enhanced P delivery, and results from multiple Devonian sequences from Euramerica show evidence of a net loss of P from terrestrial sources coincident with the appearance of early progymnosperms. Evidence from multiple Middle to Late Devonian sites in Greenland and northern Scotland/Orkney reveal a near-identical net loss of P. Additionally, all sites are temporally proximal to one or more Devonian extinction events, including precise correlation with the Kačák extinction event and the two pulses associated with the Frasnian/Famennian mass extinction. For all sites, weathering, climate, and redox proxy data, coupled with nutrient input variability, reveal similar geochemical responses as seen in extant lacustrine systems. Orbitally forced climatic cyclicity appears to be the catalyst for all significant terrestrial nutrient pulses, which suggests that expansion of terrestrial plants may be tied to variations in regional and global climate. 

We infer circumpolar maps of stress imparted to the ocean by the wind, mediated by sea-ice, in and around the Seasonal Ice Zone (SIZ) of Antarctica. In the open ocean we compute the wind stress using surface winds from daily atmospheric reanalyses and applying bulk formulae. In the presence of sea ice, the stress imparted to the underlying ocean is computed from satellite observations of daily ice concentration and drift velocity assuming, first, that the ocean geostrophic currents beneath are negligible, and then including surface geostrophic ocean currents inferred from satellite altimetry. In this way maps of surface ocean stress in the SIZ are obtained. The maps are discussed and interpreted, and their importance in setting the circulation emphasised. Just as in parallel observational studies in the Arctic, we find that ocean currents significantly modify the stress field, the sense of the surface ageostrophic flow and thus pathways of exchange across the SIZ. Maps of Ekman pumping reveal broad patterns of upwelling within the SIZ enhanced near the sea ice edge, which are offset by strong narrow downwelling regions adjacent to the Antarctic continent. 

Recent mass loss from ice sheets and ice shelves is now persistent and prolonged enough that it impacts downstream oceanographic conditions. To demonstrate this, we use an ensemble of coupled GISS‐E2.1‐G simulations forced with historical estimates of anomalous freshwater, in addition to other climate forcings, from 1990 through 2019. There are detectable differences in zonal‐mean sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice in the Southern Ocean, and in regional sea level around Antarctica and in the western North Atlantic. These impacts mostly improve the model's representation of historical changes, including reversing the forced trends in Antarctic sea ice. The changes in SST may have implications for estimates of the SST pattern effect on climate sensitivity and for cloud feedbacks. We conclude that the changes are sufficiently large that model groups should strive to include more accurate estimates of these drivers in all‐forcing historical simulations in future coupled model intercomparisons.

 

Abstract Antarctic glacial meltwater is thought to play an important role in determining large-scale Southern Ocean climate trends, yet recent modeling efforts have proceeded without a good understanding of how its vertical distribution in the water column is set. To rectify this, here we conduct new large-eddy simulations of the ascent of a buoyant meltwater plume after its escape from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf. We find that the meltwater’s settling depth is primarily a function of the buoyancy forcing per unit width of the source and the ambient stratification, consistent with the classical theory of turbulent buoyant plumes and in contrast to previous work that suggested an important role for centrifugal instability. Our results further highlight the significant role played by localized variability in stratification; this helps explain observed interannual variability in the vertical meltwater distribution near Pine Island Glacier. Because of the vast heterogeneity in mass loss rates and ambient conditions at different Antarctic ice shelves, a dynamic parameterization of meltwater settling depth may be crucial for accurately simulating high-latitude climate in a warming world; we discuss how this may be developed following this work, and where the remaining challenges lie. 

The ocean is a reservoir for CFC-11, a major ozone-depleting chemical. Anthropogenic production of CFC-11 dramatically decreased in the 1990s under the Montreal Protocol, which stipulated a global phase out of production by 2010. However, studies raise questions about current overall emission levels and indicate unexpected increases of CFC-11 emissions of about 10 Gg ⋅ yr −1 after 2013 (based upon measured atmospheric concentrations and an assumed atmospheric lifetime). These findings heighten the need to understand processes that could affect the CFC-11 lifetime, including ocean fluxes. We evaluate how ocean uptake and release through 2300 affects CFC-11 lifetimes, emission estimates, and the long-term return of CFC-11 from the ocean reservoir. We show that ocean uptake yields a shorter total lifetime and larger inferred emission of atmospheric CFC-11 from 1930 to 2075 compared to estimates using only atmospheric processes. Ocean flux changes over time result in small but not completely negligible effects on the calculated unexpected emissions change (decreasing it by 0.4 ± 0.3 Gg ⋅ yr −1 ). Moreover, it is expected that the ocean will eventually become a source of CFC-11, increasing its total lifetime thereafter. Ocean outgassing should produce detectable increases in global atmospheric CFC-11 abundances by the mid-2100s, with emission of around 0.5 Gg ⋅ yr −1 ; this should not be confused with illicit production at that time. An illustrative model projection suggests that climate change is expected to make the ocean a weaker reservoir for CFC-11, advancing the detectable change in the global atmospheric mixing ratio by about 5 yr. 

The Southern Ocean, an important region for the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂), features strong surface currents due to substantial mesoscale meanders and eddies. These features interact with the wind and modify the momentum transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean. Although such interactions are known to reduce momentum transfer, their impact on air‐sea carbon exchange remains unclear. Using a 1/20° physical‐biogeochemical coupled ocean model, we examined the impact of the current‐wind interaction on the surface carbon concentration and the air‐sea carbon exchange in the Southern Ocean. The current‐wind interaction decreased winter partial pressure of CO₂(pCO₂) at the ocean surface mainly south of the northern subantarctic front. It also reducedpCO₂in summer, indicating enhanced uptake, but not to the same extent as the winter loss. Consequently, the net outgassing of CO₂was found to be reduced by approximately 17%when including current‐wind interaction. These changes stem from the combined effect of vertical mixing and Ekman divergence. A budget analysis of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) revealed that a weakening of vertical mixing by current‐wind interaction reduces the carbon supply from below, and particularly so in winter. The weaker wind stress additionally lowers the subsurface DIC concentration in summer, which can affect the vertical diffusive flux of carbon in winter. Our study suggests that ignoring current‐wind interactions in the Southern Ocean can overestimate winter CO₂outgassing.