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Dynamic models of structural and mechanical systems can be updated to match the measured data through a Bayesian inference process. However, the performance of classical (non-adaptive) Bayesian model updating approaches decreases significantly when the pre-assumed statistical characteristics of the model prediction error are violated. To overcome this issue, this paper presents an adaptive recursive variational Bayesian approach to estimate the statistical characteristics of the prediction error jointly with the unknown model parameters. This approach improves the accuracy and robustness of model updating by including the estimation of model prediction error. The performance of this approach is demonstrated using numerically simulated data obtained from a structural frame with material non-linearity under earthquake excitation. Results show that in the presence of non-stationary noise/error, the non-adaptive approach fails to estimate unknown model parameters, whereas the proposed approach can accurately estimate them. 

Structural health monitoring of complex structures is often limited by restricted accessibility to locations of interest within the structure and availability of operational loads. In this work, a novel output-only virtual sensing scheme is proposed. This scheme involves the implementation of the modal expansion in an augmented Kalman filter. Performance of the proposed scheme is compared with two existing methods. Method 1 relies on a finite element model updating, batch data processing, and modal expansion (MUME) procedure. Method 2 employs a recursive sequential estimation algorithm, which feeds a substructure model of the instrumented system into an Augmented Kalman Filter (AKF). The new scheme referred to as Method 3 (ME-AKF), implements strain estimates generated via Modal Expansion into an AKF as virtual measurements. To demonstrate the applicability of the aforementioned methods, a rollercoaster connection was instrumented with accelerometers, strain rosettes, and an optical sensor. A comparison of estimated dynamic strain response at unmeasured locations using three alternative schemes is presented. Although acceleration measurements are used indirectly for model updating, the response-only methods presented in this research use only measurements from strain rosettes for strain history predictions and require no prior knowledge of input forces. Predicted strains using all methods are shown to sufficiently predict the measured strain time histories from a control location and lie within a 95% confidence interval calculated based on modal expansion equations. In addition, the proposed ME-AKF method shows improvement in strain predictions at unmeasured locations without the necessity of batch data processing. The proposed scheme shows high potential for real-time dynamic estimation of the strain and stress state of complex structures at unmeasured locations.