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This study investigates the evolution of temperature and lifetime of evaporating, supercooled cloud droplets considering initial droplet radius (r₀) and temperature (), and environmental relative humidity (RH), temperature (T_∞), and pressure (P). The time (t_ss) required by droplets to reach a lower steady-state temperature (T_ss) after sudden introduction into a new subsaturated environment, the magnitude of ΔT=T_∞−T_ss, and droplet survival time (t_st) atT_ssare calculated. The temperature difference (ΔT) is found to increase withT_∞, and decrease with RH andP. ΔTwas typically 1–5 K lower thanT_∞, with highest values (∼10.3 K) for very low RH, lowP, andT_∞closer to 0°C. Results show thatt_ssis <0.5 s over the range of initial droplet and environmental conditions considered. Larger droplets (r₀= 30–50μm) can survive atT_ssfor about 5 s to over 10 min, depending on the subsaturation of the environment. For higher RH and larger droplets, droplet lifetimes can increase by more than 100 s compared to those with droplet cooling ignored.T_ssof the evaporating droplets can be approximated by the environmental thermodynamic wet-bulb temperature. Radiation was found to play a minor role in influencing droplet temperatures, except for larger droplets in environments close to saturation. The implications for ice nucleation in cloud-top generating cells and near cloud edges are discussed. UsingT_ssinstead ofT_∞in widely used parameterization schemes could lead to enhanced number concentrations of activated ice-nucleating particles (INPs), by a typical factor of 2–30, with the greatest increases (≥100) coincident with low RH, lowP, andT_∞closer to 0°C.

Cloud droplet temperature plays an important role in fundamental cloud processes like droplet growth and decay, activation of ice-nucleating particles, and determination of radiative parameters like refractive indices of water droplets. Near cloud boundaries such as cloud tops, dry air mixes with cloudy air exposing droplets to environments with low relative humidities. This study examines how the temperature of a cloud droplet that is supercooled (i.e., has an initial temperature < 0°C) evolves in these subsaturated environments. Results show that when supercooled cloud droplets evaporate near cloud boundaries, their temperatures can be several degrees Celsius lower than the surrounding drier environment. The implications of this additional cooling of droplets near cloud edges on ice particle formation are discussed.

 

Abstract Airborne vertically profiling Doppler radar data and output from a ∼1-km-grid-resolution numerical simulation are used to examine how relatively small-scale terrain ridges (∼10–25 km apart and ∼0.5–1.0 km above the surrounding valleys) impact cross-mountain flow, cloud processes, and surface precipitation in deep stratiform precipitation systems. The radar data were collected along fixed flight tracks aligned with the wind, about 100 km long between the Snake River Plain and the Idaho Central Mountains, as part of the 2017 Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime clouds: the Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE). Data from repeat flight legs are composited in order to suppress transient features and retain the effect of the underlying terrain. Simulations closely match observed series of terrain-driven deep gravity waves, although the simulated wave amplitude is slightly exaggerated. The deep waves produce pockets of supercooled liquid water in the otherwise ice-dominated clouds (confirmed by flight-level observations and the model) and distort radar-derived hydrometeor trajectories. Snow particles aloft encounter several wave updrafts and downdrafts before reaching the ground. No significant wavelike modulation of radar reflectivity or model ice water content occurs. The model does indicate substantial localized precipitation enhancement (1.8–3.0 times higher than the mean) peaking just downwind of individual ridges, especially those ridges with the most intense wave updrafts, on account of shallow pockets of high liquid water content on the upwind side, leading to the growth of snow and graupel, falling out mostly downwind of the crest. Radar reflectivity values near the surface are complicated by snowmelt, but suggest a more modest enhancement downwind of individual ridges. Significance Statement Mountains in the midlatitude belt and elsewhere receive more precipitation than the surrounding lowlands. The mountain terrain often is complex, and it remains unclear exactly where this precipitation enhancement occurs, because weather radars are challenged by beam blockage and the gauge network is too sparse to capture the precipitation heterogeneity over complex terrain. This study uses airborne profiling radar and high-resolution numerical simulations for four winter storms over a series of ridges in Idaho. One key finding is that while instantaneous airborne radar transects of the cross-mountain flow, vertical drafts, and reflectivity contain much transient small-scale information, time-averaged transects look very much like the model transects. The model indicates substantial surface precipitation enhancement over terrain, peaking over and just downwind of individual ridges. Radar observations suggest less enhancement, but the radar-based assessment is uncertain. The second key conclusion is that, even though orographic gravity waves are felt all the way up into the upper troposphere, the orographic precipitation enhancement is due to processes very close to the terrain. 

Abstract This essay is intended to provide stakeholders and news outlets with a plain-language summary of orographic cloud seeding research, new capabilities, and prospects. Specifically, we address the question of whether a widely practiced type of weather modification, glaciogenic seeding of orographic clouds throughout the cold season, can produce an economically useful increase in precipitation over a catchment-scale area. Our objective is to clarify current scientific understanding of how cloud seeding may affect precipitation, in terms that are more accessible than in the peer-reviewed literature. Public confidence that cloud seeding “works” is generally high in regions with operational seeding, notwithstanding decades of scientific reports indicating that the changes in precipitation are uncertain. Randomized seeding experiments have a solid statistical foundation and focus on the outcome, but, in light of the small seeding signal and the naturally noisy nature of precipitation, they generally require too many cases to be affordable, and therefore are discouraged. A complementary method, physical evaluation, examines changes in cloud and precipitation processes when seeding material is injected and yields insights into the most suitable ambient conditions. Recent physical evaluations have established a robust, well-documented scientific basis for glaciogenic seeding of cold-season orographic clouds to enhance precipitation. The challenge of seeding impact assessment remains, but evidence is provided that, thanks to recent significant progress in observational and computational capabilities, the research community is finally on track to be able to provide stakeholders with guidance on the likely quantitative precipitation impact of cloud seeding in their region. We recommend further process-level evaluations combined with highly resolved, well-constrained numerical simulations of seasonal cloud seeding. 

Abstract Properties of frozen hydrometeors in clouds remain difficult to sense remotely. Estimates of number concentration, distribution shape, ice particle density, and ice water content are essential for connecting cloud processes to surface precipitation. Progress has been made with dual-frequency radars, but validation has been difficult because of lack of particle imaging and sizing observations collocated with the radar measurements. Here, data are used from two airborne profiling (up and down) radars, the W-band Wyoming Cloud Radar and the Ka-band Profiling Radar, allowing for Ka–W-band dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) profiles. The aircraft (the University of Wyoming King Air) also carried a suite of in situ cloud and precipitation probes. This arrangement is optimal for relating the “flight-level” DWR (an average from radar gates below and above flight level) to ice particle size distributions measured by in situ optical array probes, as well as bulk properties such as minimum snow particle density and ice water content. This comparison reveals a strong relationship between DWR and the ice particle median-volume diameter. An optimal range of DWR values ensures the highest retrieval confidence, bounded by the radars’ relative calibration and DWR saturation, found here to be about 2.5–7.5 dB. The DWR-defined size distribution shape is used with a Mie scattering model and an experimental mass–diameter relationship to test retrievals of ice particle concentration and ice water content. Comparison with flight-level cloud-probe data indicate good performance, allowing microphysical interpretations for the rest of the vertical radar transects. 

Recent studies from the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) demonstrated definitive radar evidence of seeding signatures in winter orographic clouds during three intensive operation periods (IOPs) where the background signal from natural precipitation was weak and a radar signal attributable to seeding could be identified as traceable seeding lines. Except for the three IOPs where seeding was detected, background natural snowfall was present during seeding operations and no clear seeding signatures were detected. This paper provides a quantitative analysis to assess if orographic cloud seeding effects are detectable using radar when background precipitation is present. We show that a 5-dB change in equivalent reflectivity factorZ_eis required to stand out against background naturalZ_evariability. This analysis considers four radar wavelengths, a range of background ice water contents (IWC) from 0.012 to 1.214 g m⁻³, and additional IWC introduced by seeding ranging from 0.012 to 0.486 g m⁻³. The upper-limit values of seeded IWC are based on measurements of IWC from the Nevzorov probe employed on the University of Wyoming King Air aircraft during SNOWIE. This analysis implies that seeding effects will be undetectable using radar within background snowfall unless the background IWC is small, and the seeding effects are large. It therefore remains uncertain whether seeding had no effect on cloud microstructure, and therefore produced no signature on radar, or whether seeding did have an effect, but that effect was undetectable against the background reflectivity associated with naturally produced precipitation.

Operational glaciogenic seeding programs targeting wintertime orographic clouds are funded by a range of stakeholders to increase snowpack. Glaciogenic seeding signatures have been observed by radar when natural background snowfall is weak but never when heavy background precipitation was present. This analysis quantitatively shows that seeding effects will be undetectable using radar reflectivity under conditions of background snowfall unless the background snowfall is weak, and the seeding effects are large. It therefore remains uncertain whether seeding had no effect on cloud microstructure, and therefore produced no signature on radar, or whether seeding did have an effect, but that effect was undetectable against the background reflectivity associated with naturally produced precipitation. Alternative assessment methods such as trace element analysis in snow, aircraft measurements, precipitation measurements, and modeling should be used to determine the efficacy of orographic cloud seeding when heavy background precipitation is present.

 

Abstract A new method that automatically determines the modality of an observed particle size distribution (PSD) and the representation of each mode as a gamma function was used to characterize data obtained during the High Altitude Ice Crystals and High Ice Water Content (HAIC-HIWC) project based out of Cayenne, French Guiana, in 2015. PSDs measured by a 2D stereo probe and a precipitation imaging probe for particles with maximum dimension ( D max ) > 55 μ m were used to show how the gamma parameters varied with environmental conditions, including temperature ( T ) and convective properties such as cloud type, mesoscale convective system (MCS) age, distance away from the nearest convective peak, and underlying surface characteristics. Four kinds of modality PSDs were observed: unimodal PSDs and three types of multimodal PSDs (Bimodal1 with breakpoints 100 ± 20 μ m between modes, Bimodal2 with breakpoints 1000 ± 300 μ m, and Trimodal PSDs with two breakpoints). The T and ice water content (IWC) are the most important factors influencing the modality of PSDs, with the frequency of multimodal PSDs increasing with increasing T and IWC. An ellipsoid of equally plausible solutions in ( N o – λ–μ ) phase space is defined for each mode of the observed PSDs for different environmental conditions. The percentage overlap between ellipsoids was used to quantify the differences between overlapping ellipsoids for varying conditions. The volumes of the ellipsoid decrease with increasing IWC for most cases, and ( N o – λ–μ ) vary with environmental conditions related to distribution of IWC. HIWC regions are dominated by small irregular ice crystals and columns. The parameters ( N o – λ–μ ) in each mode exhibit mutual dependence. 

Abstract On 7 February 2020, precipitation within the comma-head region of an extratropical cyclone was sampled remotely and in situ by two research aircraft, providing a vertical cross section of microphysical observations and fine-scale radar measurements. The sampled region was stratified vertically by distinct temperature layers and horizontally into a stratiform region on the west side, and a region of elevated convection on the east side. In the stratiform region, precipitation formed near cloud top as side-plane, polycrystalline, and platelike particles. These habits occurred through cloud depth, implying that the cloud-top region was the primary source of particles. Almost no supercooled water was present. The ice water content within the stratiform region showed an overall increase with depth between the aircraft flight levels, while the total number concentration slightly decreased, consistent with growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. In the convective region, new particle habits were observed within each temperature-defined layer along with detectable amounts of supercooled water, implying that ice particle formation occurred in several layers. Total number concentration decreased from cloud top to the −8°C level, consistent with particle aggregation. At temperatures > −8°C, ice particle concentrations in some regions increased to >100 L −1 , suggesting secondary ice production occurred at lower altitudes. WSR-88D reflectivity composites during the sampling period showed a weak, loosely organized banded feature. The band, evident on earlier flight legs, was consistent with enhanced vertical motion associated with frontogenesis, and at least partial melting of ice particles near the surface. A conceptual model of precipitation growth processes within the comma head is presented. Significance Statement Snowstorms over the northeast United States have major impacts on travel, power availability, and commerce. The processes by which snow forms in winter storms over this region are complex and their snowfall totals are hard to forecast accurately because of a poor understanding of the microphysical processes within the clouds composing the storms. This paper presents a case study from the NASA IMPACTS field campaign that involved two aircraft sampling the storm simultaneously with radars, and probes that measure the microphysical properties within the storm. The paper examines how variations in stability and frontal structure influence the microphysical evolution of ice particles as they fall from cloud top to the surface within the storm. 

Abstract In Part II, two classes of vertical motions, fixed (associated with vertically propagating gravity waves tied to flow over topography) and transient (associated primarily with vertical wind shear and conditional instability within passing weather systems), were diagnosed over the Payette River basin of Idaho during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE). This paper compares vertical motions retrieved from airborne Doppler radial velocity measurements with those from a 900-m-resolution model simulation to determine the impact of transient vertical motions on trajectories of ice particles initiated by airborne cloud seeding. An orographic forcing index, developed to compare vertical motion fields retrieved from the radar with the model, showed that fixed vertical motions were well resolved by the model while transient vertical motions were not. Particle trajectories were calculated for 75 cross-sectional pairs, each differing only by the observed and modeled vertical motion field. Wind fields and particle terminal velocities were otherwise identical in both trajectories so that the impact of transient vertical circulations on particle trajectories could be isolated. In 66.7% of flight-leg pairs, the distance traveled by particles in the model and observations differed by less than 5 km with transient features having minimal impact. In 9.3% of the pairs, model and observation trajectories landed within the ideal target seeding elevation range (>2000 m), whereas, in 77.3% of the pairs, both trajectories landed below the ideal target elevation. Particles in the observations and model descended into valleys on the mountains’ lee sides in 94.2% of cases in which particles traveled less than 37 km. 

Abstract Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) waves are a frequent source of turbulence in stratiform precipitation systems over mountainous terrain. KH waves introduce large eddies into otherwise laminar flow, with updrafts and downdrafts generating small-scale turbulence. When they occur in-cloud, such dynamics influence microphysical processes that impact precipitation growth and fallout. Part I of this paper used dual-Doppler, 2D wind and reflectivity measurements from an airborne cloud radar to demonstrate the occurrence of KH waves in stratiform orographic precipitation systems and identified four mechanisms for triggering KH waves. In Part II, we use similar observations to explore the effects of KH wave updrafts and turbulence on cloud microphysics. Measurements within KH wave updrafts reveal the production of liquid water in otherwise ice-dominated clouds, which can contribute to snow generation or enhancement via depositional and accretional growth. Fallstreaks beneath KH waves contain higher ice water content, composed of larger and more numerous ice particles, suggesting that KH waves and associated turbulence may also increase ice nucleation. A Large-Eddy Simulation (LES), designed to model the microphysical response to the KH wave eddies in mixed phase cloud, shows that depositional and accretional growth can be enhanced in KH waves, resulting in more precipitation when compared to a baseline simulation. While sublimation and evaporation occur in KH downdrafts, persistent supersaturation with respect to ice allows for net increase in ice mass. These modeling results and observations suggest that KH waves embedded in mixed-phase stratiform clouds may increase precipitation, although the quantitative impact remains uncertain.