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  1. Abstract

    To aid California's water sector to better understand and manage future climate extremes, we present a method for creating a regionally consistent ensemble of plausible daily future climate and streamflow scenarios that represent natural climate variability captured in a network of tree‐ring chronologies, and then embed anthropogenic climate change trends within those scenarios. We use 600 years of paleo‐reconstructed weather regimes to force a stochastic weather generator, which we develop for five subbasins in the San Joaquin Valley of California. To assess the compound effects of climate change, we create temperature series that reflect projected scenarios of warming and precipitation series that have been scaled to reflect thermodynamically driven shifts in the distribution of daily precipitation. We then use these weather scenarios to force hydrologic models for each of the five subbasins. The paleo‐forced streamflow scenarios highlight periods in the region's past that produce flood and drought extremes that surpass those in the modern record and exhibit large non‐stationarity through the reconstruction. Variance decomposition is employed to characterize the contribution of natural variability and climate change to variability in decision‐relevant metrics related to floods and drought. Our results show that a large portion of variability in individual subbasin and spatially compounding extreme events can be attributed to natural variability, but that anthropogenic climate changes become more influential at longer planning horizons. The joint importance of climate change and natural variability in shaping extreme floods and droughts is critical to resilient water systems planning and management in the San Joaquin.

     
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  2. Abstract

    Assessing impacts on coupled food-water systems that may emerge from water policies, changes in economic drivers and crop productivity requires an understanding of dominant uncertainties. This paper assesses how a candidate groundwater pumping restriction and crop prices, crop yields, surface water price, electricity price, and parametric uncertainties shape economic and groundwater performance metrics from a coupled hydro-economic model (HEM) through a diagnostic global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The HEM used in this study integrates a groundwater depth response, modeled by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), into a calibrated Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) agricultural production model. Results show that in addition to a groundwater pumping restriction, performance metrics are highly sensitive to prices and yields of perennial tree crops. These sensitivities become salient during dry years when there is a higher reliance on groundwater. Furthermore, results indicate that performing a GSA for two different water baseline conditions used to calibrate the production model, dry and wet, result in different sensitivity indices magnitudes and factor prioritization. Diagnostic GSA results are used to understand key factors that affect the performance of a groundwater pumping restriction policy. This research is applied to the Wheeler Ridge-Maricopa Water Storage District located in Kern County, California, region reliant on groundwater and vulnerable to surface water shortages.

     
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  3. Abstract

    Robustness analysis can support the design and operation of large‐scale water infrastructure projects confronting deeply uncertain futures. However, diverse actors, contextual specificities, sectoral interests, and risk attitudes make it difficult to identify an appropriate robustness metric to rank decision alternatives under deep uncertainty. Here, we clarify how methodological choices affect robustness evaluation using the multi‐actor, multi‐sector Inchampalli‐Nagarjuna Sagar water transfer megaproject in Southern India. We compare a suite of water transfer strategies discovered using evolutionary multi‐objective direct policy search (EMODPS), a strategy proposed by regional authorities and the status quo of no water transfer. We stress‐test these strategies across scenarios that capture climatic and socioeconomic uncertainties and rank them using robustness metrics representing sectoral perspectives and priorities of different actors with varying risk attitudes. Results show a considerable impact of metric choices on robustness rankings of strategies, with compromise solution discovered via EMODPS as robust. The no‐transfer strategy results in the worst water supply robustness with an average volumetric deficit of 17% of total historical demands but emerges as a robust alternative for 6 out of 12 combinations of actor‐sectors with high risk aversion. Also, changes in the amplitude of the Indian Summer Monsoon is identified as the most important uncertain factor determining the failure of strategies. Our findings highlight that the selection of robust solutions should be guided by an understanding of how assumed risk attitudes shape stakeholders' perceptions of vulnerabilities. These findings are generalizable to large infrastructure projects with diverse stakeholders and multisectoral impacts.

     
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  6. Abstract

    Somatic mosaicism is defined as an occurrence of two or more populations of cells having genomic sequences differing at given loci in an individual who is derived from a single zygote. It is a characteristic of multicellular organisms that plays a crucial role in normal development and disease. To study the nature and extent of somatic mosaicism in autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, focal cortical dysplasia, schizophrenia, and Tourette syndrome, a multi-institutional consortium called the Brain Somatic Mosaicism Network (BSMN) was formed through the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH). In addition to genomic data of affected and neurotypical brains, the BSMN also developed and validated a best practices somatic single nucleotide variant calling workflow through the analysis of reference brain tissue. These resources, which include >400 terabytes of data from 1087 subjects, are now available to the research community via the NIMH Data Archive (NDA) and are described here.

     
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  7. Abstract

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to “strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty” (UNFCCC 2015). Designing a global mitigation strategy to support this goal poses formidable challenges. For one, there are trade-offs between the economic costs and the environmental benefits of averting climate impacts. Furthermore, the coupled human-Earth systems are subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. Previous economic analyses typically addressed either the former, introducing multiple objectives, or the latter, making mitigation actions responsive to new information. This paper aims at bridging these two separate strands of literature. We demonstrate how information feedback from observed global temperature changes can jointly improve the economic and environmental performance of mitigation strategies. We focus on strategies that maximize discounted expected utility while also minimizing warming above 2 °C, damage costs, and mitigation costs. Expanding on the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model and previous multi-objective efforts, we implement closed-loop control strategies, map the emerging trade-offs and quantify the value of the temperature information feedback under both well-characterized and deep climate uncertainties. Adaptive strategies strongly reduce high regrets, guarding against mitigation overspending for less sensitive climate futures, and excessive warming for more sensitive ones.

     
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